Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
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- Watchers 91
Looks promising myknees! When you look at the weekly chart, a fall of over 1,000 pips wouldn't even begin to threaten the bull market in this pair, in fact it would be very healthy. So much to play for, it's worth a few bites at the cherry!
Right myknees you convinced me! - gonna get involved in GBP/CAD on a break.
Just laying out some of the possible movements in the chart below. Looks complicated but it's really not. The main levels are the trendline for entry, then I would be watching the two horizontal lines to gauge risk. If, after a break, price managed to overcome both the trendline and those levels, that would be the market communicating to me that something is wrong with the bears.
Just listening to what the market is saying - not rocket science
Just laying out some of the possible movements in the chart below. Looks complicated but it's really not. The main levels are the trendline for entry, then I would be watching the two horizontal lines to gauge risk. If, after a break, price managed to overcome both the trendline and those levels, that would be the market communicating to me that something is wrong with the bears.
Just listening to what the market is saying - not rocket science
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Right price is above the first horizontal line now. No reason to get in the market yet. If I was already in the market from earlier, I would be considering cutting losses, and waiting until the bears showed up again. Either that or wait until we see what happens at the upper horizontal line. Above there we would have to concede there is something wrong.
It's very easy, when I am posting here about entries, to lose focus on what is important.
As I say in the price action ebook, don't get caught up on drawing the trendline in the right place, or interpreting candles or whatever. These are just the tools we use to manage risk.
In golf there are an infinite number of different ways to hit the ball. Different clubs, different brands, different stances, different swings, different strengths, different player physiques, etc.
Doesn't matter how you do it, the aim of the game is to get the ball in the hole.
In trading, doesn't matter how you do it, the aim of the game is to control risk.
myknees might approach this similar GBP/CAD setup very differently to how I approach it. I might take a couple more goes than him, he might have slightly wider stops, he might get in at exactly the best price whereas I might be a few pips off because I was making a coffee. Doesn't matter - as long as we both are managing our risk, we are both completely on the right track.
As I say in the price action ebook, don't get caught up on drawing the trendline in the right place, or interpreting candles or whatever. These are just the tools we use to manage risk.
In golf there are an infinite number of different ways to hit the ball. Different clubs, different brands, different stances, different swings, different strengths, different player physiques, etc.
Doesn't matter how you do it, the aim of the game is to get the ball in the hole.
In trading, doesn't matter how you do it, the aim of the game is to control risk.
myknees might approach this similar GBP/CAD setup very differently to how I approach it. I might take a couple more goes than him, he might have slightly wider stops, he might get in at exactly the best price whereas I might be a few pips off because I was making a coffee. Doesn't matter - as long as we both are managing our risk, we are both completely on the right track.
When you learn to play golf, do you spend months and years looking for the magical combination of things that will win you a major?
Hmmm, maybe if I switch my waterproofs to Nike, change my clubs from Ping to Callaway, wear pink check trousers instead of purple check trousers, I will be a better golfer.
Right, that didn't work - perhaps I should join a different golf club, and only play on Wednesday mornings, when it is not raining. Then I will win a major.
Can you see how ridiculous most people's approach to trading is?
Nice posts Nigel - Cheers, make sense
Did you do an update this weekend, I didn't get an email from Forex Useful for some reason ?
hey there myknees, hope you had a good weekend!
Not sure what happened about the report, but if you want to get a look at it here it is. It is focusing on EUR/AUD. Don't worry, the market has been comatose this morning, so you haven't missed anything!
Having said that, I'm sure everyone has seen the geopolitical risk develop over the weekend, so just be careful. One word can provoke a lot of movement, in scenarios like these traders often sell first ask questions later.
All the best for the coming week! I'll be in and out of here as much as I can!
Nigel
Not sure what happened about the report, but if you want to get a look at it here it is. It is focusing on EUR/AUD. Don't worry, the market has been comatose this morning, so you haven't missed anything!
Having said that, I'm sure everyone has seen the geopolitical risk develop over the weekend, so just be careful. One word can provoke a lot of movement, in scenarios like these traders often sell first ask questions later.
All the best for the coming week! I'll be in and out of here as much as I can!
Nigel
Not much happening on the pair I am watching this week, EURAUD.
Bear in mind, I am keeping a monthly outlook on this one, so have to be patient!
Bear in mind, I am keeping a monthly outlook on this one, so have to be patient!
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Looks like you got your break
Yep, it was a bit messy, but price is below the trendline now! It may have taken a couple of goes, but we should be in the trade now, or if not, ready to initiate shorts on a retest to the underside of the trendline.
We shouldn't be too worried if we have lost a few pips getting involved in the market here, as long as the signal holds valid on the longterm timeframe, we can expect a good chance of seeing some profit come our way! Patience is the name of the game - the market is not there to entertain us!
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Hello, hope everyone had a nice weekend!
Looks like we might be shaping up to get a classic retest of the underside of the trendline on EURAUD. I don't like to get anyone's hopes up uneccessarily, but I really like the look of the price action on this right now. The market has shown a healthy respect for the trendline, which means we can take some confidence in it as a reference point. Price right now is in an area where there should be no reason why stops should be bigger than 20 - 30 pips. Potential profit is many multiples of risk - name of the game
Of course, at any point something can come along and spoil the party, but right now things are looking very good
Looks like we might be shaping up to get a classic retest of the underside of the trendline on EURAUD. I don't like to get anyone's hopes up uneccessarily, but I really like the look of the price action on this right now. The market has shown a healthy respect for the trendline, which means we can take some confidence in it as a reference point. Price right now is in an area where there should be no reason why stops should be bigger than 20 - 30 pips. Potential profit is many multiples of risk - name of the game
Of course, at any point something can come along and spoil the party, but right now things are looking very good
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woohoo rockin' now
Obviously this got knocked out at breakeven - back in now on the retest.
Let's see what happens
Price has moved down nicely as hoped and we should now be all somewhere between 40 and 60 pips profit, depending on your entry price.
What happens now? Well of course, nobody knows - maybe the pair will continue south and in doing so continue to rack up our profits. Or perhaps a piece of data or a sideways fart from Draghi or something will put a fly in the ointment. We can never tell.
It is not always easy to accept that we don't have a clue what is going to happen or that we can't influence the outcome in any way. We are always taught that we can have some impact on future events with which we are concerned - be it positive through hard work, knowledge, experience or whatever, or negative through laziness or incompetence.
Not so with trading. Some people find it hard to accept, others never accept it. But we cannot predict or control or influence future prices. I don't want to harp on too much about gambling, but there is a clear similarity with playing poker. Is poker a game of chance or a game of skill? Well clearly there is an element of chance, because the player does not know what cards they are going to be dealt. The skill comes in how he plays the hand he is dealt. Can he read other players, can he spot weaknesses, can confuse others as to his intentions? Can he bluff, can he force others to fold when they shouldn't, does he extract the maximum pain out of his opponents when his hand is strong? The best poker players do all of the above, and being able to do so is incontrovertibly a skill.
Same with trading - we do not know what hand the market is going to deal us. It is our deftness and skill with dealing with what the market throws at us that separates the sharks from the fish - to borrow some poker phraseology. With the trade in hand, EUR/AUD - the market may well break back above the trendline and take us out. It shouldn't matter a damn if it does. It's how we deal with it that matters.
For me, right now, if this happens my losses will be nil, a big fat goose-egg. For others, they might have had a few attempts - maybe they have 50 pips or even 100 pips realised losses. The reason why I didn't make those attempts is not because I am an awesome trader who had some divine gift of prediction that kept me away from the market - it was because I happened to be in bed nursing a hangover from a hard weekend. Next time I will be making the failed attempts and you will be missing them for whatever reason. Swings and roundabouts
The single focus should be not only what the market is doing, but what WE are doing. How WE are interacting with it, if WE are giving ourselves the best opportunity to exploit opportunities where possible and eliminate risk where necessary.
What happens now? Well of course, nobody knows - maybe the pair will continue south and in doing so continue to rack up our profits. Or perhaps a piece of data or a sideways fart from Draghi or something will put a fly in the ointment. We can never tell.
It is not always easy to accept that we don't have a clue what is going to happen or that we can't influence the outcome in any way. We are always taught that we can have some impact on future events with which we are concerned - be it positive through hard work, knowledge, experience or whatever, or negative through laziness or incompetence.
Not so with trading. Some people find it hard to accept, others never accept it. But we cannot predict or control or influence future prices. I don't want to harp on too much about gambling, but there is a clear similarity with playing poker. Is poker a game of chance or a game of skill? Well clearly there is an element of chance, because the player does not know what cards they are going to be dealt. The skill comes in how he plays the hand he is dealt. Can he read other players, can he spot weaknesses, can confuse others as to his intentions? Can he bluff, can he force others to fold when they shouldn't, does he extract the maximum pain out of his opponents when his hand is strong? The best poker players do all of the above, and being able to do so is incontrovertibly a skill.
Same with trading - we do not know what hand the market is going to deal us. It is our deftness and skill with dealing with what the market throws at us that separates the sharks from the fish - to borrow some poker phraseology. With the trade in hand, EUR/AUD - the market may well break back above the trendline and take us out. It shouldn't matter a damn if it does. It's how we deal with it that matters.
For me, right now, if this happens my losses will be nil, a big fat goose-egg. For others, they might have had a few attempts - maybe they have 50 pips or even 100 pips realised losses. The reason why I didn't make those attempts is not because I am an awesome trader who had some divine gift of prediction that kept me away from the market - it was because I happened to be in bed nursing a hangover from a hard weekend. Next time I will be making the failed attempts and you will be missing them for whatever reason. Swings and roundabouts
The single focus should be not only what the market is doing, but what WE are doing. How WE are interacting with it, if WE are giving ourselves the best opportunity to exploit opportunities where possible and eliminate risk where necessary.
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