Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
- Start date
- Watchers 91
here is the chart - my entry is at the blue line. Obviously I am quite vulnerable to a retrace here because my price is pretty poor. The market broke with speed because of the data and it is inevitable that you will get slipped in such a scenario. You pretty much have to take whatever price you get.
I'll be waiting to see if we get a retrace - but for now I am firmly in sell mode and will remain so unless price manages to get above that trendline.
Will update tomorrow
I'll be waiting to see if we get a retrace - but for now I am firmly in sell mode and will remain so unless price manages to get above that trendline.
Will update tomorrow
Attachments
Absolutely perfect retest of the underside of the trendline. Textbook!
Initial position out at b/e. Will bring second trade to BE shortly.
Initial position out at b/e. Will bring second trade to BE shortly.
Attachments
Last edited:
Right, although price is back below my entry now, it just tickled my stop and knocked it out, as the market loves to do!
There is no need to get mad though - I have traded twice this morning and my account has no losses. I have only lost 23 pips on this monthly signal so far. Monthly. How often can you trade a monthly signal, with hundreds and hundreds of pips of a target, with so little risk? With a method, patience, discipline and a little bit of work.
Latest chart attached. It's a 5 min this time. Doesn't matter what timeframe it is, the price traces the same path no matter what chart you have. Just a different way of presenting the same information.
No position so far - will consider opening on retest to upper trendline, or if you wanted to play it safe, on a break of the lower trendline.
Cut the losers and run the winners. Fold on the weak hands and bet heavy when you get your pair of aces. They don't come often, but they do come
There is no need to get mad though - I have traded twice this morning and my account has no losses. I have only lost 23 pips on this monthly signal so far. Monthly. How often can you trade a monthly signal, with hundreds and hundreds of pips of a target, with so little risk? With a method, patience, discipline and a little bit of work.
Latest chart attached. It's a 5 min this time. Doesn't matter what timeframe it is, the price traces the same path no matter what chart you have. Just a different way of presenting the same information.
No position so far - will consider opening on retest to upper trendline, or if you wanted to play it safe, on a break of the lower trendline.
Cut the losers and run the winners. Fold on the weak hands and bet heavy when you get your pair of aces. They don't come often, but they do come
Attachments
While we are on the poker analogy (the non-gamblers amongst us must be getting sick of me now) I will just take a second to talk about sharks and fishes.
In poker, the sharks obviously are the good players and they spend their time eating the fishes, who are the weak players.
One of the key attributes a shark looks for when he is identifying his fishes is how often the potential fish bets early in the game. If a player bets a lot early in a hand of poker, they will be often betting on weak hands, because you can only be dealt strong hands so often.
If they are betting on weak hands early in the game, it means that they are more likely to be there for reasons that are not wholly focused on making money.
They could just be there for the entertainment, for the excitement, for the thrill. They don't want to fold on weak cards and wait until they have a strong hand to bet heavily on, because that's boring. They want to be involved, even if it is not the best strategy to win.
When a shark decides to take one of these fish on, he knows that they will bet, raise and re-raise probably regardless of what cards come out. Sometimes, the fish will get lucky when he goes all in on a pair of twos and he just manages to fluke a winning hand on the last card dealt. That is always a risk for the shark.
When that happens, the fish is delighted with himself and will brag to his poker chums about what a great player he is. The shark will give a wry smile, because he accepts that although he played his strategy perfectly, and was just taken out by the random fall of the cards. That's the nature of the game.
Does he give up poker, call the fish a cheat, or storm out? No, the wry smile is because he knows that it will not be long until the same fish tries the same strategy again and will blow up, because the odds are stacked against him over time. The fish will lose his account over the long term, because he is playing a losing strategy, and the shark will win over the long term, because he is patient enough to allow the odds to play out in his favour.
The analogies with trading are tremendous - I shouldn't have to spell them out. Don't be a fish, swimming around erratically, playing loose, taking stupid risks. Be the shark - patient, calculated and shrewd.
I would encourage you all to watch some poker on TV next time a tournament is on, even if you have no interest in playing. Watch, particularly at the beginning of the game when the table is full, how often the top players fold their hands. They fold far more often than they bet. When they do bet, they do so when the odds are in their favour. As long as the odds are in their favour, they are aggressive and inflict maximum pain on their opponents. Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. But overall they will come out on top.
In poker, the sharks obviously are the good players and they spend their time eating the fishes, who are the weak players.
One of the key attributes a shark looks for when he is identifying his fishes is how often the potential fish bets early in the game. If a player bets a lot early in a hand of poker, they will be often betting on weak hands, because you can only be dealt strong hands so often.
If they are betting on weak hands early in the game, it means that they are more likely to be there for reasons that are not wholly focused on making money.
They could just be there for the entertainment, for the excitement, for the thrill. They don't want to fold on weak cards and wait until they have a strong hand to bet heavily on, because that's boring. They want to be involved, even if it is not the best strategy to win.
When a shark decides to take one of these fish on, he knows that they will bet, raise and re-raise probably regardless of what cards come out. Sometimes, the fish will get lucky when he goes all in on a pair of twos and he just manages to fluke a winning hand on the last card dealt. That is always a risk for the shark.
When that happens, the fish is delighted with himself and will brag to his poker chums about what a great player he is. The shark will give a wry smile, because he accepts that although he played his strategy perfectly, and was just taken out by the random fall of the cards. That's the nature of the game.
Does he give up poker, call the fish a cheat, or storm out? No, the wry smile is because he knows that it will not be long until the same fish tries the same strategy again and will blow up, because the odds are stacked against him over time. The fish will lose his account over the long term, because he is playing a losing strategy, and the shark will win over the long term, because he is patient enough to allow the odds to play out in his favour.
The analogies with trading are tremendous - I shouldn't have to spell them out. Don't be a fish, swimming around erratically, playing loose, taking stupid risks. Be the shark - patient, calculated and shrewd.
I would encourage you all to watch some poker on TV next time a tournament is on, even if you have no interest in playing. Watch, particularly at the beginning of the game when the table is full, how often the top players fold their hands. They fold far more often than they bet. When they do bet, they do so when the odds are in their favour. As long as the odds are in their favour, they are aggressive and inflict maximum pain on their opponents. Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. But overall they will come out on top.
above the highs at 5406 would probably indicate we are going back up to the underside of the trendline, so I will risk about 11 pips on this trade.
out, minus 12 pips.
total losses 12 +23 = 35 pips.
Can't remember exactly how many trades I have taken, probably 5 or something, so roughly 7 pips average loss per trade.
This is a hot deck guys, it's a beautiful set-up. This is the equivalent of shark who has been patiently folding hands all night, and now suddenly he has been dealt a full house on the flop
total losses 12 +23 = 35 pips.
Can't remember exactly how many trades I have taken, probably 5 or something, so roughly 7 pips average loss per trade.
This is a hot deck guys, it's a beautiful set-up. This is the equivalent of shark who has been patiently folding hands all night, and now suddenly he has been dealt a full house on the flop
Stop to B/E now - risk free trade
Bias remains bearish on any retraces up to the underside of the trendlines.
Bias remains bearish on any retraces up to the underside of the trendlines.
Right guys - an update -
at the third attempt we seem to be rocking now
nice clean direct price action, with a nice "pop" after the trendline break that I am always nagging on about
59 pips in floating profit so far, 35 pips realised losses
if we could break 1.53 today we could really be in business, but have to take what the market gives us
hope this commentary is of some help to anyone reading this - feeling like I am in a bit of an echo chamber here! Anyone out there???
chart below:
at the third attempt we seem to be rocking now
nice clean direct price action, with a nice "pop" after the trendline break that I am always nagging on about
59 pips in floating profit so far, 35 pips realised losses
if we could break 1.53 today we could really be in business, but have to take what the market gives us
hope this commentary is of some help to anyone reading this - feeling like I am in a bit of an echo chamber here! Anyone out there???
chart below:
Attachments
Mr Market doesn't want to roll over just yet! Out at b/e again.
Newbies will get angry, frustrated and emotional at the runs of small losses and break-evens. Not me, I have a wry smile on my face, I know my turn will come….
Newbies will get angry, frustrated and emotional at the runs of small losses and break-evens. Not me, I have a wry smile on my face, I know my turn will come….
I'll be keeping an eye on short-term trendlines to form on this tonight and into tomorrow. The pair still looks like it is ready to take a tumble - the bulls just haven't quite given up yet - they are stubborn!
Just a quick point on trendlines -
as you can see, you can pretty much draw trendlines anywhere, but the key is how strong they are. If you read my stuff you will know that I like to see a "pop" when they break. Such a pop usually comes when a strong trendline breaks.
The more touches a trendline has, the stronger it is. So while there is nothing wrong with a trendline with only two touches, just be aware that you might not get a great reaction from price when it breaks - price might well bounce from it (hey presto, another touch!).
There is nothing wrong with trading them, it's just important to know what you are dealing with.
as you can see, you can pretty much draw trendlines anywhere, but the key is how strong they are. If you read my stuff you will know that I like to see a "pop" when they break. Such a pop usually comes when a strong trendline breaks.
The more touches a trendline has, the stronger it is. So while there is nothing wrong with a trendline with only two touches, just be aware that you might not get a great reaction from price when it breaks - price might well bounce from it (hey presto, another touch!).
There is nothing wrong with trading them, it's just important to know what you are dealing with.
This morning's chart below!
Happy Friday!!
5 Minute time-frame !!!! Now that's precision Entry !!!!
All the best for the weekend
Similar threads
