Morning myknees, yes it seems as though the patience is beginning to pay off!
We have broke below 1.5, and the bulls are definitely on the back foot now
Chart below:
Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
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Morning myknees, yes it seems as though the patience is beginning to pay off!
We have broke below 1.5, and the bulls are definitely on the back foot now
Chart below:
Morning stuart1984, I agree with you, everything is looking good for the bears so far.
If you want I will keep updating in here as we move along. I have said that I would like to try to get a trade on a monthly swing on this one, but as always, I will have to keep an eye on price as it moves.
The absolute priority is that losses are kept to a minimum, so our stops should be at breakeven at the very least.
In terms of how to take profit, it is largely a matter of personal preference which will lie across a wide spectrum of risk appetite. For instance, the really, really aggressive approach would be to just leave the stops at breakeven and either let the trade(s) either get to a very large target (perhaps 1,000 pips or more in this case) or just get stopped out. Let the chips fall where they may!
A bit less of an aggressive approach might be to count up the small losses we have incurred on the pair to date trying to get the positions in play and then either closing out part of the winning position(s) to leave ourselves at zero cumulative losses overall or even a small profit, and then leave the rest to run.
What I would advise is that if you have multiple positions and you are considering closing one or more out to pay yourself back any previous losses, always close out ones with the smallest profit first. The reason for this is that these will be the ones that are most likely to get taken out by retraces anyway - the trades showing a bigger profit will have more chance of avoiding those annoying retraces!
Remember, the market WILL retrace, that is how it moves. It's not nice seeing a floating profit get smaller as price moves back against us, but it gets easier as long as you keep an eye on the bigger picture. The market can literally do anything, anything can happen. It is just as possible that this market collapse and reward us handsomely, as it is that something will happen that will drive it to explode to new highs, taking out our stops at breakeven.
If the former happens, we party - if the latter happens, we have lost little or nothing. That is trading in a nutshell.
Hi Nigel
Thanks for your response, another batch of very useful information for me to digest. I have only been trading for 6 months and so I am very much still in the early days of what I hope will be a long term means of creating some extra money. I trade a very small account at the moment, I need to prove to myself that I am doing my money justice before I consider investing any more in this project. We all have dreams and one day, maybe I will be able to do this more full time, until then, I aim to "make hay while the sun shines".
It is early days with this EURAUD trade but my UNREALISED profits are already more than any single trade I have made in the past so I have some conflicting emotions about where to go from here.
The fact that we have now broken down through 1.5 which is a significant round number and an area price has bounced from in recent times (not at my laptop so can't post a chart) I think we could see some continuation to the downside for the next few weeks. That being said, you are right, there will be a retrace and my gut is telling me it will come over the coming week. Price might head back up to 1.5 to trigger some more sell orders, then again, it might not stop there and take us all out. Who knows!!
If we close the day without too much of a retrace, I'll be taking off half my second position which will mean the trade has not cost me anything and anything I end up taking from the market will be pure profit.
It would be great if you could continue to update the forum on what your thoughts are, I have already learned a lot from your insight and I think it would help me from making any irrational fear based decisions.
PS - The XAUUSD I am also in has just broken down through another short term 1HR trendline. I'll be keeping my eye on this also. NZDUSD and GBPJPY are not currently showing any signs of dropping but I will continue to watch my trendlines.
Thanks
Stuart
Thanks for your response, another batch of very useful information for me to digest. I have only been trading for 6 months and so I am very much still in the early days of what I hope will be a long term means of creating some extra money. I trade a very small account at the moment, I need to prove to myself that I am doing my money justice before I consider investing any more in this project. We all have dreams and one day, maybe I will be able to do this more full time, until then, I aim to "make hay while the sun shines".
It is early days with this EURAUD trade but my UNREALISED profits are already more than any single trade I have made in the past so I have some conflicting emotions about where to go from here.
The fact that we have now broken down through 1.5 which is a significant round number and an area price has bounced from in recent times (not at my laptop so can't post a chart) I think we could see some continuation to the downside for the next few weeks. That being said, you are right, there will be a retrace and my gut is telling me it will come over the coming week. Price might head back up to 1.5 to trigger some more sell orders, then again, it might not stop there and take us all out. Who knows!!
If we close the day without too much of a retrace, I'll be taking off half my second position which will mean the trade has not cost me anything and anything I end up taking from the market will be pure profit.
It would be great if you could continue to update the forum on what your thoughts are, I have already learned a lot from your insight and I think it would help me from making any irrational fear based decisions.
PS - The XAUUSD I am also in has just broken down through another short term 1HR trendline. I'll be keeping my eye on this also. NZDUSD and GBPJPY are not currently showing any signs of dropping but I will continue to watch my trendlines.
Thanks
Stuart
Very sensible and mature approach. Treat it like learning any skill - would we expect to pick up a guitar from scratch, play around it for a while in our spare time and then in 6 months be expecting to replace Angus Young in AC/DC? Certainly not! But with some work, some sensible expectations, some discipline and education should we be able to pull out a guitar at a party and entertain people with a few popular tunes? Absolutely
Great to hear - just continue monitoring price - the market will tell us when it's time to think about getting out
Precisely what I was thinking myself
The definition of managing risk and exploiting opportunity - spot on.
Consider it done
Just on the current EUR/AUD chart - there is not much to update from yesterday. I would certainly think it very possible that we get a retrace soon and it is just a matter of how far the bulls can push it. I would definitely not be surprised to see them take a rattle at 1.5 or even above it.
What would be ideal would be for us to see price consolidate along a new trendline, giving the Jonny-Come-Latelys the chance to join in, or those of us who are already in the market the chance to add to our positions.
After the sharp move down over the past couple of days all stops should be at break-even and risk off the table for now. I'll update again as price develops.
Nigel
What would be ideal would be for us to see price consolidate along a new trendline, giving the Jonny-Come-Latelys the chance to join in, or those of us who are already in the market the chance to add to our positions.
After the sharp move down over the past couple of days all stops should be at break-even and risk off the table for now. I'll update again as price develops.
Nigel
Hi Nigel
Thank you for all your comments. I look forward to seeing your updates in the coming days/weeks.
As I mentioned in my post above, I did end up taking off half my 2nd EURAUD position at yesterdays close. It is now very satisfying knowing that whatever happens I won't have lost a penny.
I have read a number of books on trading over the past 6 months and my favourite has been Market Wizards. Even as a complete novice I realised that the underlying theme that all the traders had in common was that they cut losses quickly without hesitation and made the absolute most of any trade that was working in their favour. I think the PAST strategy certainly lines up nicely with this theme.
I will post some charts tonight with trade updates when I get a chance.
Thanks
Stuart
Thank you for all your comments. I look forward to seeing your updates in the coming days/weeks.
As I mentioned in my post above, I did end up taking off half my 2nd EURAUD position at yesterdays close. It is now very satisfying knowing that whatever happens I won't have lost a penny.
I have read a number of books on trading over the past 6 months and my favourite has been Market Wizards. Even as a complete novice I realised that the underlying theme that all the traders had in common was that they cut losses quickly without hesitation and made the absolute most of any trade that was working in their favour. I think the PAST strategy certainly lines up nicely with this theme.
I will post some charts tonight with trade updates when I get a chance.
Thanks
Stuart
Hi everyone
Nigel - thanks for the mention in the newsletter! Appreciate it.
I am also still watching and trading the EURAUD as per your bulletin. As you have covered your take on the monthly chart I thought I would post the weekly with my thoughts so here you are:
And this is the hourly:
As discussed in the chart. We have not had much pullback with last week showing some strong momentum to the downside. We should not be surprised if we see some retracement during next week and hopefully this will allow me to add to my position on another trendline break to the downside. The bigger picture shows a clear head and shoulders pattern on the weekly and the daily and we have broken below the neckline which may mean we can look for a much larger move down. I still think there is more to take out of this market but that is out of our hands. My positions are now totally risk free and as per the strategy rules I will keep these open until I can see evidence that suggests this downward momentum may have lost its mojo.
Happy trading
Stuart
Nigel - thanks for the mention in the newsletter! Appreciate it.
I am also still watching and trading the EURAUD as per your bulletin. As you have covered your take on the monthly chart I thought I would post the weekly with my thoughts so here you are:
And this is the hourly:
As discussed in the chart. We have not had much pullback with last week showing some strong momentum to the downside. We should not be surprised if we see some retracement during next week and hopefully this will allow me to add to my position on another trendline break to the downside. The bigger picture shows a clear head and shoulders pattern on the weekly and the daily and we have broken below the neckline which may mean we can look for a much larger move down. I still think there is more to take out of this market but that is out of our hands. My positions are now totally risk free and as per the strategy rules I will keep these open until I can see evidence that suggests this downward momentum may have lost its mojo.
Happy trading
Stuart
The XAUUSD is also a pair I have been watching since starting with this strategy. I got a couple of positions in on trendline breaks last week and as with the EURAUD, I am looking for some retracement before gold extends its losses in attempt to retrace to the downward trendline indicated in the chart, here is the weekly:
And the hourly:
Stuart
And the hourly:
Stuart
I am also watching the EURUSD and took a short at the end of last week following a trendline break. Don't have my chart ready at the moment but will try and post it tomorrow.
I have had a quick scan through the charts this evening and other than those mentioned already I don't see much that I like the look of. I was watching GBPJPY and NZDUSD last week but they have not played out for the time being, I will continue to keep my eye on them in case this changes.
Hope I am getting most of this right and not straying too far from the principles of the strategy.
Thanks
Stuart
I have had a quick scan through the charts this evening and other than those mentioned already I don't see much that I like the look of. I was watching GBPJPY and NZDUSD last week but they have not played out for the time being, I will continue to keep my eye on them in case this changes.
Hope I am getting most of this right and not straying too far from the principles of the strategy.
Thanks
Stuart
Hi folks
As per my post yesterday, here is my chart for EURUSD. I was stopped out today at a small loss following news out of Eurozone this morning.
Weekly chart:
4Hourly Chart:
We will wait and see how this plays out.
Happy trading
Stuart
As per my post yesterday, here is my chart for EURUSD. I was stopped out today at a small loss following news out of Eurozone this morning.
Weekly chart:
4Hourly Chart:
We will wait and see how this plays out.
Happy trading
Stuart
I have also added to my EUR AUD position, see hourly chart:
How is everyone else getting on?
Thanks
Stuart
How is everyone else getting on?
Thanks
Stuart
Hi folks
As per my post yesterday, here is my chart for EURUSD. I was stopped out today at a small loss following news out of Eurozone this morning.
Weekly chart:
Nice charts Stuart - monthly closed yesterday too, not exactly a great preceding trend, but certainly long wick.
we'll have to wait and see sort of hand April deals us
as long you are doing your best to keep the losses under control and doing everything you can to give the winners the chance to grow - everything else is down to personal style
No two people look at the same chart and see the same thing - its a matter of interpretation.
Some people look at the Mona Lisa and say "that's a nice picture of a woman smiling" and move on to the next exhibit.
Others have been suicidal because they could not bear the frustration of not being able to interpret what it means, how she smiles, who she is, is she blind, is she sick, is she Leonardo himself, etc etc.
The painting remains the same.
I'm probably doing a slight injustice to da Vinci here - comparing mine and Stuart's EURAUD charts with his timeless masterpiece, but you get the point I'm sure
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price still hanging around here, leaving plenty of time to get on the train!
hopefully its heading south!
hopefully its heading south!
remember London is closed now, so whenever we hand over to the US it's often just a gradual drift upwards.
will keep an eye on it for a while, but not going to spend my whole afternoon watching it!
will keep an eye on it for a while, but not going to spend my whole afternoon watching it!
right we are precisely 0.4 of a pip from where we were when I entered so I am off for the afternoon! Leaving the stop at 3822.
A stop-loss on capital is very important but sometimes we need to put a stop loss on screen time too!
capital loss can be recovered, time loss can't
will update maybe later, maybe tomorrow
Nigel
A stop-loss on capital is very important but sometimes we need to put a stop loss on screen time too!
capital loss can be recovered, time loss can't
will update maybe later, maybe tomorrow
Nigel
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