Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Nigel - are you still in the EUR/USD trade?

Me too Stuart - although it wasn't by much! I'm fairly sure that it was the broker spread that got me and not the price but sure that's the nature of the game we're in.

On the plus side, the EURAUD trade seems to be continuing to move in the correct direction.

Got knocked out by a couple of pips russian30. Annoying, but nothing we can do about it.

Some might say, "oh but if your stop was just a little bit further away, you'd still be in the trade right now, and you would be in profit."

I reject that view - because where do you draw the line? 20 pips, 50 pips, 200 pips? How far could Draghi have spiked the Euro yesterday? No-one can tell us for sure - could have been anything. He could have just as easily as anything else said something that spiked the euro on its way to 1.40, no sweat. Where would we be then? Looking at a big fat drawdown annoying us for weeks? No thanks!

It's very easy for someone to tell you in hindsight what you did wrong, or for you yourself to tell yourself in hindsight what you did wrong. The markets are full of hindsight experts, and I don't waste my time listening to any of them, including myself. I'm happy to take any break-even trade, even if price only just triggers it. Because I know I gave myself a chance at high reward for zero or very little risk. That's all that matters.

The EUR/USD trade was a bummer this week, but the EUR/AUD chart is playing out wonderfully. I was patient for the few weeks it took for it to play out - a few attempts here and there, a few break-evens and a few small losses. But the market recognised my work and now I am getting my reward for it. Around 500 pips so far, with hopefully more to come :):)
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
I'm not in any of the trades at the moment so I'll looking at the entry's in the charts attached. They're all retraces.

View attachment 4386

Lovely jubbly russian30, I will be keeping a close eye on the EURAUD one myself - i like how this chart is moving right now, doesn't seem like the bulls can get a foothold at all… :)
 

russian30

Active Trader
Oct 9, 2013
34
0
42
Also, I was looking at NZD/USD. What do you guys think?

The price seems to be turning over on the weekly with a very clear trend line.

NZDUSD-WEEKLY.png

The 4hr shows the retrace to the trend line.

NZDUSD-4HR.png

The price is also near 8600 which has been solid Resistance in the past.
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Happy Monday All!

Was anyone up early enough to catch the setup from this weekend's report?

I definitely wasn't, I was in my bed - I think that was one for our Asian session friends!

Look to be playing out very tidily though - I will be keeping an eye out for some retraces now.

Anyone who got in on the retest should definitely have risk either off the table completely now, or at least stops tightened a bit.

Nice start to the week!! :D:D
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
I got in at this morning at 95.80. Out for BE.

It looks like its making a run at the retest!!

Nice one russian30 - nice to see you let it get stopped out at B/E.

A novice there would be tempted to lengthen out his stop - not wanting to be out of the market. What you have done of course is the more mature approach - let the market do what it wants, and we will work ourselves around it - controlling risk and exploiting opportunity.

For what it's worth, I think this is a sell now anywhere from here up to about 96.10 or so, give or take a few pips. If the bulls get above there, that's the market telling us that they have a bit more strength than we thought and it is time to stand aside and go into damage limitation mode.

We get aggressive when the market is moving for us, and get defensive when the market is moving against us.

Struggling traders tend to do the opposite. :D:D
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Interesting topic has just come up with this trade - are we scared of missing out?

Is price going to make it up to actually test the underside of the line, or is it going to fail, and turn around at these current levels? If we wait for the retest, it might not come, and we will miss the trade! :eek:

Again, it is a matter of risk appetite. You could try once here, and if you get stopped out, try again further up. If you have losses, keep a note of them and make sure they are small. What would be wrong with the following?

-5, -10, 0, 0, -10, 0, -15, +200

Sounds ok, doesn't it?

And never, EVER, open a trade here, let it go into loss with a view to adding to it at higher levels - that is averaging a loser and it is the road to the poor house. Cut the loser and then open a position higher up if you want.
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
This is testing the water here, I'm not ruling out a proper retest of the trendline just yet! Anything can happen, we just have to remain nimble and ready to adapt to the market :D
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Congratulations on the 100 pages!! :D:D:D

I'm going to celebrate by moving my stop to BE!

I'd better ring my broker!!

View attachment 4407

He was brilliant in that film - the bit when the two of them were fighting in the kitchen had the tears streaming down my cheeks, was laughing till I was sore!
 

russian30

Active Trader
Oct 9, 2013
34
0
42
It's an awesome film!! completely unexpected as well.

smoke.jpg

"let's go fucking run! Let's run like we're fucking lions and tigers and bears!"

:D:D:D:D