Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

[stuart1984]

Post NFPs update:

I entered short AUDCAD this morning on a trendline break in line with the monthly pin bar I highlighted at the beginning of the week. Entry was 1.01549 with a 15 pip stop @ 1.01696. I had hoped to get to BE before NFP but couldn't get the follow through. I cam very close to being stopped out for a loss but the trade survived NFP and I have now been able to move to BE. Time will tell whether this trade will turn into something bigger.

My AUDUSD short from yesterday is now in decent profit following the stronger than expected NFP numbers, the initial reaction was USD bullish but this may still reverse and take out my BE stop.

At the time of writing, AUDUSD is up 85 pips and AUDCAD is up 35 pips, both stops at BE, my work is done and its now time for the market to decide how it is going to play out.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

If we get some USD strength in follow through. I will be watching the NZDUSD trendlines carefully for an opportunity.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Well that was short and sweet. AUDCAD stopped out for BE.

AUDUSD is not looking great either, all USD gains following NFP have been erased already. We will see how we finish the week but if price remains roughly where it is there is a nice daily pinbar forming and a very nice trendline that we may be able to trade the break of next week. Could this be building towards my first long PAST trade!!!!

I'll post charts over the weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Testing Some new Screen Capture software

http://www.evernote.com/shard/s191/...ba0d2f78c8f3/40b1463243bac2a21cc6444070963b72

 

[myknees]

Post NFPs update:

I entered short AUDCAD this morning on a trendline break in line with the monthly pin bar I highlighted at the beginning of the week. Entry was 1.01549 with a 15 pip stop @ 1.01696. I had hoped to get to BE before NFP but couldn't get the follow through. I cam very close to being stopped out for a loss but the trade survived NFP and I have now been able to move to BE. Time will tell whether this trade will turn into something bigger.

My AUDUSD short from yesterday is now in decent profit following the stronger than expected NFP numbers, the initial reaction was USD bullish but this may still reverse and take out my BE stop.

At the time of writing, AUDUSD is up 85 pips and AUDCAD is up 35 pips, both stops at BE, my work is done and its now time for the market to decide how it is going to play out.

Stuart

Nice updates - Thank you - Have a great trading week

 

[stuart1984]

Hi folks

Hope everyone is having a good week. Just thought I would put in a quick update. All trades from last week have now hit my BE stop loss.

As per the last post on Friday I started looking for Long opportunities based on Fridays Bullish Pin Bar signal. I went long this morning at 0.9301 with original stop at 0.924. Price has moved in my direction so I have moved stop to BE. My longer term bias is still short for this pair but if I get the opportunity for a 1:5 trade here I will be taking profits then.

I have also entered short EURCAD based on a retest of a broken trendline drawn on the H1. Will move to BE if I get the chance.

Charts attached.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

EURAUD

Anyone who is looking to get in short on EURAUD, there is a trendline breaking at the moment. I'm already in from the break of the Orange trendline but thought I would highlight this in case anyone was interested.

See chart

Stuart

 

[Nigel Price]

EURAUD

Anyone who is looking to get in short on EURAUD, there is a trendline breaking at the moment. I'm already in from the break of the Orange trendline but thought I would highlight this in case anyone was interested.

See chart

Stuart

Just got in at 1.4909 myself Stuart! I am really liking the look of this chart right now, hopefully we can get some good movement to the downside over the coming sessions

I wouldn't rule out some more bull strength before it falls, but I will be using any rally as an opportunity to sell now. Getting trades knocked out at B/E is a bit annoying, but as long as we keep our eye on the bigger picture, we should begin to see them with a bit of perspective - as long as losers are kept very small, they should be nothing more than a minor inconvenience.

 

[Nigel Price]

My current EUR/AUD chart -

Yours might be a bit different, no group of people will draw trendlines that are identical to each other. But as long as we are all on roughly the same track it will all even itself out in the end

 

[stuart1984]

Hi Folks I think we are back in business with my chart software so here are my charts showing my entries today. AUDUSD based on Daily PB on Friday. EURCAD based on NIgels report at the weekend with the monthly as the anchor chart. EURAUD based on Nigels report over a month ago, I still have part of a position short from back then and I have now added more following the recent retrace. Here are the charts:

AUDUSD H4

 

[stuart1984]

EURAUD H1

 

[stuart1984]

EURCAD H1:

 

[stuart1984]

All todays entries now have BE stop loss so I am in the hands of the market, fingers crossed!!!

Happy trading

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

My EURAUD short was stopped out at BE overnight. I have re-entered short again @ 1.49067 based on the blue trendline retest. Will try and get to BE agaib over the coming session. See chart:



Stuart

 

[Nigel Price]

My EURAUD short was stopped out at BE overnight. I have re-entered short again @ 1.49067 based on the blue trendline retest. Will try and get to BE agaib over the coming session. See chart:



Stuart

I'm exactly the same Stuart, got knocked out at b/e overnight. Will be selling rallies up to that trendline again today. I think if we get a drop we'll be looking at a few hundred pips, minimum. Great to see you still have a trade on from last month, it's not easy riding out those retraces - well done

Thanks for the charts, will be taking a look at that software myself later!

 

[stuart1984]

I'm exactly the same Stuart, got knocked out at b/e overnight. Will be selling rallies up to that trendline again today. I think if we get a drop we'll be looking at a few hundred pips, minimum. Great to see you still have a trade on from last month, it's not easy riding out those retraces - well done

Thanks for the charts, will be taking a look at that software myself later!

Hi Nigel

Good to see we are on the same wavelength with this one. I was beginning to get slightly anxious about the retrace on EURAUD form my original position. I only have a quarter of my original position on and I had actually moved my stop to just above 1.500. This was the area for me that invalidated the bearish momentum. I agree that if it drops, it will do so with gusto, might not get a clear picture of what is going to happen until after the EUR economic events later in the week.

Happy trading.

 

[Nigel Price]

I was beginning to get slightly anxious about the retrace on EURAUD form my original position. I only have a quarter of my original position on and I had actually moved my stop to just above 1.500. This was the area for me that invalidated the bearish momentum.

That is very mature and sensible analysis. If the market fails to perform to expectations and ends up taking out that stop, of course it will be annoying, but it shouldn't be fatally so. It shouldn't make you start to abandon your trading plans or style, or begin trading recklessly or emotionally. It should generate the entirely correct and philosophical reaction, that - "hey, that didn't work out, bummer, but I gave it every chance, and I controlled my exposure while doing so. On to the next one."

I sometimes hear the phrase "death by a thousand cuts" when people are talking about trading styles with low trade success ratios. The implication being that you die slowly, one loss after the next. But when you think about it, that's no more plausible that saying its possible to trade with a 100% success ratio. If you flip it around, I would say it would actually be quite difficult to trade in this way and avoid having a big winner every now and again. It's exactly the same as the guy who needs a really high success rate - but then inevitably a huge loser comes along and wipes out all his small wins. We just do the opposite, we wait for a huge winner to come along and wipes out all our small losses.

 

[Nigel Price]

Chart below for this morning - selling rallies under the trendline - if price establishes a hold above the trendline, I will stand aside....

The market is telling me something if the bulls make it above that area - if we don't listen when the market is speaking to us, we can't be surprised if we struggle.

 

[Nigel Price]

Took a shot here at 4906. See if we get a fall here. Happy to risk a few pips for the opportunity to gain a lot more.

 

[Nigel Price]

initially a 25 pip stop, at 4931, but I don't think I'll let it get that far - lets see what happens....