Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Saw a little bit of strength there, go up to 4916, so -10 pips, but since the gains have been given back and we are back where we started again :)

Keeping everything the same for now, hoping to see some more weakness, which would allow me to get my risk tightened up a bit.
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Read a quote from Paul Tudor Jones who was speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference the other day:

“I actually find myself daydreaming about winning Dancing With The Stars on some days in the office,” Jones says. “It’s gotten to be very difficult when you depend on price movement to make a living, and there is none.”

I tell you my friends, even the legends are finding these markets very difficult. If you have just started and are discouraged, stick with it, because it is a great time to be learning. :D
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Took a little spike up there to 4918. I have to admit, I didn't get in on a great price on this trade, so I have to allow it some leeway. The trendline on my chart is actually coming in now above my stop, so if we get that far, I will have to take a loss. But on the other hand, I will be happy to try again right at the underside of the trendline.

I am operating on the assumption that if the market plays out how I would like it to, I'm looking at 300 pips minimum, possibly a lot more. I can easily afford to have a couple of attempts; it doesn't need to be all or nothing.
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
What's your view on bitcoin guys? Do any of you own it? I'd be interested to hear of any experiences.

It looks like it might be gearing up for a move on way or another - a nice clean trendline has developed off those huge highs late last year...
 

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Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Price peeking above 4920 now - I am going to leave my stop where it is at 4931, if it gets taken out, I will be trying to get in again as close to the trendline as possible. Any spikes above there and I will be standing aside.
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Seeing some weakness now, has come off a bit. I am still a few pips underwater on this trade, but there was plenty of opportunity to get in around 4920 or slightly above.

Trading at 4913 now
 

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Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Try to learn how to move between offense and defense.

If the market is behaving in accordance with our expectations, we can attack, and get as much out of the market as possible. This is not just about greed, we have a responsibility to exploit every opportunity to the full. Not taking advantage when the market is going our way is every bit as damaging to our performance as trying to force trades out of a market that isn't playing ball with us.

If the market starts to behave in a way that is contrary to our expectations (in this case establishing a foothold above our trendline), we have to quickly move into defensive mode. Our focus is no longer on exploiting the opportunity, it is limiting the potential damage caused by a market moving against us.

Once we can learn to do this, it doesn't matter whether we are right or wrong. Once we are asking ourselves these questions, should I be attacking or should I be defending in this market, it quickly becomes second nature - we do it without even thinking.
 
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Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Ok, the bulls are telling us something here, they do not want to roll over just yet.

Price is at 4934 now and my stop is at 4945.

I'm going to leave the stop there, and if it gets taken out, that's time for me to stand aside and wait until we see clear signs that the bull strength is waning. If price was minded to be move to the downside, it wouldn't be moving the way it is now.
 
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Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
It'd be great if we were putting in a nice bearish wick here before a move to the downside, but it's certainly not something we can bank on. Firmly in defensive mode now - I'm happy with where the stop is, I've given the trade enough room to work itself out and I got in at a good price. Not really all that much more anyone can do! :D:D
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Looking a bit healthier now...

4 hour chart below - maybe we are putting in a nice wick after all.

Stop still at 4945.

Hi Nigel

I have just logged into the forum and some great posts over the last few hours, thanks.

I got stopped out for a small loss on my short EURAUD that I put on this morning. I entered again pretty soon after at 1.4927 and price is now looking like it will move in our direction for a little while. Stop to BE asap.

EURCAD has been retracing all morning but looks like it might be turning now. My BE stop is up at 1.524 so I was expecting price to retrace a bit and it is still quite safe at the moment. Need to see if the downside continues.

My AUDUSD long has also been retracing all morning but this also looks like it might be turning north again????? BE stop so I need to be patient and see what the market has intended.

Just thought I would also mention NZDUSD - we have been watching this patiently for weeks now with a few false signals on the weekly charts. We are now at the upper side of monthly resistance and may post a Bearish Engulfing on the daily today. There is a nice H4/H1 trendline and price is currently hovering around it. I can't post a chart but it is pretty clear if you open one up.

Happy trading everyone.

Stuart