Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
- Start date
- Watchers 91
Here is an overview of my positions at the moment:
GBPCHF Position 1 - +232 pips
GBPCHF Position 2 - + 45pips
GBPUSD - +379 Pips
EURNOK Position 1 - + 2364 pips
EURNOK Position 2 - + 2008 pips
USDCAD - + 18 Pips
All trades above have BE stop loss. I took 2 full losses trying USDCAD shorts this week and 1 BE trade trying to add to GBPUSD. All in all, I am having a good month so far.
Cheers
Stuart
GBPCHF Position 1 - +232 pips
GBPCHF Position 2 - + 45pips
GBPUSD - +379 Pips
EURNOK Position 1 - + 2364 pips
EURNOK Position 2 - + 2008 pips
USDCAD - + 18 Pips
All trades above have BE stop loss. I took 2 full losses trying USDCAD shorts this week and 1 BE trade trying to add to GBPUSD. All in all, I am having a good month so far.
Cheers
Stuart
I am currently sitting on a floating profit of about 22% and I am considering closing a few parts of positions to try and close the gap between balance and equity.
If I do decide to take some profits I will be closing the additional positions first. This is a lesson NIgel taught me at the beginning when I first started trading the strategy.
Stuart
If I do decide to take some profits I will be closing the additional positions first. This is a lesson NIgel taught me at the beginning when I first started trading the strategy.
Stuart
Personally I probably would but there is always the risk of a Gap open against you on Sunday night. It would probably depend on how good the set up looked and I would be trying my ardest to get to BE before close of play Friday.
Stuart
I have decided to close out my additional EURNOK position for 8 times my initial risk. This was only a small position but has paid off the losses I have incurred establishing my other positions.
My remaining EURNOK position will remain open until I see evidence that there may be a change ahead.
Stuart
My remaining EURNOK position will remain open until I see evidence that there may be a change ahead.
Stuart
That's all you need to do Abercrombie. That's your job done, to perfection.
Whether that trade turns out to be a successful one, or whether it gets stopped out at breakeven, it doesn't mater - it's irrelevant.
A stop at B/E is quality trading on your part, end of story. Well done.
Hi Les, sorry about that, I didn't realise it came out so tiny.
Nothing to do with your brain my friend, there are plenty of tech/IT/software issues that I have major problems with too. Sure it's only recently that I figured out how to post a chart on here properly!
Anyone who didn't grow up with computers and is using them now, I take my hat off to them. It's not always that easy to get the hang of this stuff - I know I'm certainly not a natural myself.
100% agree Abercrombie - it's such a great trading book. It's crazy how different trading is today to what it was like when Livermore was trading, yet the challenges we face as traders haven't changed one bit. Jesse was running in and out of bucket-shops, watching tapes, hustling. We are sitting in our offices in front of a screen, not needing any human interaction whatsoever, instant prices, instant news feeds, all the charting tools and information you could ever want. Yet it still all comes down to being able to exercise emotional control and discipline.
Think I might read it again over the weekend now!
Anything by Jack Scwhager is gold, if you ask me - haven't read the latest one yet, but the rest have been very thumbed and have plenty of coffee mug stains on the them - a good sign! Jack Schwager's books really reiterate the idea that there is no one correct way to trade the market - its almost always a matter of of individual style and personality, but there some very clear common themes that pop up again and again amongst successful traders.
I seem to gravitate towards books with a pyschological/behavioural aspect to them, so I like this one too.
First chapter in particular - pure gold
I haven't read any of these three, although I know of Greg Michalowski.
Maybe we should get a book club going - read one every few weeks and compare notes!
My contribution to the list is tough to find - I think I mentioned it here before - it is about Paul Tudor Jones - it's called "Trader - The Documentary". It never lasts long online before it is taken down, but it pops up every now and again, and if you can ever manage to locate yourself a version of it, it is worth a look.
I'd trade right up to the wire on a Friday if I could Les, but unfortunately nowadays, with the volatility so low, I find myself doing little after Friday mornings now.
As for leaving positions over the weekend, it boils down to what sort of risk you are able to stomach. I told the story a couple of weeks back about my mate getting blown up by a 400 pip weekend gap on EUR/USD.
It is incredibly rare, obviously, but you just have to do your best to weigh up the potential downsides against the potential upsides and do your best to get yourself in a place that you are comfortable, risk-wise. Put it this way, if your stop is at breakeven, but only something like 10 pips in profit, it is highly likely you are going to get taken out by wide spreads at the market open or something anyway. My own default position in that scenario would probably be just to take the small loss and sleep easier, but that's just me
This is a very interesting article of risk/reward
http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2010/01/optimal-stop-loss-take-profit-placement.html
http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2010/01/optimal-stop-loss-take-profit-placement.html
Awesome trading Stuart - GBPUSD in particular looks like it could be at the start of a big, big swing - possibly even a monthly swing - there is nothing better than getting a position in play at the start of a monthly swing
It's definitely due a retrace, so just be relaxed and let the bears let off a bit of steam and relax for a while if that's what happens, but right now it looks like the bears have the market by the scruff of the neck!
Just to point out to anyone reading this and doubting whether they can replicate these results - you can. I'm sure Stuart won't mind me saying this - but a very large part of the above stats is not huge skill, it's not an ability to predict the future, it's not being some kind of price action genius. It is a function of decent money management, cutting losses quickly, and the persistence and discipline to grind your way through the tough weeks when there is nothing happening in the markets.
I am fond of using the slot machine analogy - you just keep slogging away, putting in the coins, pulling the lever. Each time a small loss. Most traders give up too soon. They walk away from the slot machine too early. But the slot machine can't take in coins forever - it has to pay out sometime. Half the battle in trading is just making sure that you are still around when the market starts to pay out - and when it does start to pay out - being prepared to take whatever it is prepared to give you.
**just a caveat** - I don't recommend playing slot machines - they operate with a significant edge over you. The difference between the slot machine and the markets is that you start in the markets at almost even (apart from the spread). Almost neutral expectancy. It is perfectly possible to swing the odds into your favour in the markets - it is more difficult with slot machines. Trust me - I have tried everything, everything, over the years! (reformed gambler here
)
That's a good read - nice find.
Interesting to see that their most profitable was with the highest reward to risk ratio - 25 times reward to 1 risk.
At those figures, you would only need a 4% average trade success ratio to be nicely profitable.
Perfectly achievable
Yep, I am always a big advocate of closing out the smallest trade, in terms of floating profit, first.
I hope everyone's trading is going as well as Stuart's. Much congratulations to Stuart!
I am still short GBPUSD with a current floating profit just over 350 pips. I'm watching for opportunities to add additional positions.
My GBPCHF short was stopped out at BE. I'll be watching for additional short opportunities.
I also shorted USDCAD and was stopped out at -10 pips. With the recent strength of the USD, my confidence in this setup has waned.
Being new to PAST, I'm trying to stick with the more "textbook" setups until I get a good feel. One must know the rules well in order to understand when to break them.
I didn't see any new setups in the weekly charts. I will check the daily charts if I have time later.
Good Luck All!
Much congratulations to Stuart!I am still short GBPUSD with a current floating profit just over 350 pips. I'm watching for opportunities to add additional positions.
My GBPCHF short was stopped out at BE. I'll be watching for additional short opportunities.
I also shorted USDCAD and was stopped out at -10 pips. With the recent strength of the USD, my confidence in this setup has waned.
Being new to PAST, I'm trying to stick with the more "textbook" setups until I get a good feel. One must know the rules well in order to understand when to break them.
I didn't see any new setups in the weekly charts. I will check the daily charts if I have time later.
Good Luck All!
Morning Abercrombie - yes I got knocked out of my second GBP/CHF trade too. There were quite a few gaps around the forex market last night - with GBP strength definitely a theme.
I'm still looking to get short again anywhere up to 1.52 today though. Much above there and I'll stand aside.
A detailed chart is in the report from the weekend, if anyone wants to have a look
Good trading
I'm still looking to get short again anywhere up to 1.52 today though. Much above there and I'll stand aside.
A detailed chart is in the report from the weekend, if anyone wants to have a look
Good trading
Nice one - highest point reached was 1.5201 - price has eased away now and now trades at 1.5175, so + 15 pips in profit.
Stop not at B/E yet, but if we get a bit more bear strength, I'll probably get my risk off the table.
If only all trade went as smoothly as this one!
Stop not at B/E yet, but if we get a bit more bear strength, I'll probably get my risk off the table.
If only all trade went as smoothly as this one!
Jinxed myself there - back up to my entry price....let's see if we begin to roll over again here....
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