Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

[stuart1984]

Morning Abercrombie - yes I got knocked out of my second GBP/CHF trade too. There were quite a few gaps around the forex market last night - with GBP strength definitely a theme.

I'm still looking to get short again anywhere up to 1.52 today though. Much above there and I'll stand aside.

A detailed chart is in the report from the weekend, if anyone wants to have a look

Good trading

Afternoon everyone

I also got stopped out at a loss following last nights' gap on my additional GBPCHF position.

I entered short again today at 1.5185 with SL at 1.5208. Will be trying to move to BE before NY closes but need to see what happens for the rest of the afternoon.

Happy trading everyone.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

I am also abandoning any more attempts at shorts on USDCAD. Bears have not managed to take any control last week and the USD bulls are still looking strong.

Stuart

 

[Nigel Price]

I'm at B/E now on GBP/CHF - I'm not seeing the downside develop that I would have liked to see, so I'm just going to take my risk off the table now and let what is going to happen, happen.

Bank holiday in the UK, and we never really get any proper movement during the US session anymore so we are just drifting around, going nowhere.

I'm fully expecting this trade to get taken out overnight, but if it is, I've lost nothing, and that means it is a great day's trading for me

Getting myself relaxed and prepared now for Monday night football on the telly - can't beat it

 

[Nigel Price]

Morning All - Happy Tuesday!

Bad news first - Liverpool got a bit of a schooling last night from an excellent City side.

Good news - my GBP/CHF trade survived the night

Beginning to move away now hopefully - +35 pips as I fired up the screen this morning.

Hope everyone else is doing well.

 

[stuart1984]

Morning All - Happy Tuesday!

Bad news first - Liverpool got a bit of a schooling last night from an excellent City side.

Good news - my GBP/CHF trade survived the night

Beginning to move away now hopefully - +35 pips as I fired up the screen this morning.

Hope everyone else is doing well.

Morning Nigel

Bad luck with the football!!

Much to my surprise the gbpchf trade I added yesterday also survived the night. I didn't get quite as high an entry as you and so I moved to BE before I went to bed with only about a 6 pip buffer.

It is moving nicely at the moving nicely just now, fingers crossed this is the start of the next leg down.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Talk about speaking too soon. Knocked out at BE on yesterdays GBP/CHF position.

Stuart

 

[Nigel Price]

Talk about speaking too soon. Knocked out at BE on yesterdays GBP/CHF position.

Stuart

I'm out at B/E too Stuart. Talk about a slow days trading!

It's during these consolidative periods, which, let's face it, forms the bulk of market price action, that the market makes us earn our money.

But the nice quick moves will come, they always do.

That's me for the day - I will be keeping an eye on the lower purple trendline from the report for tomorrow - that's my main one. I might consider a short again up to 1.52/5220-ish if we get there again, but i'm not going to sit at the screen for the rest of the day waiting for it to happen.

Take it handy

 

[stuart1984]

Evening PAST traders.

I thought it was time to share a chart I have been watching for some time now. It is not what I would call a perfect PAST setup but I have been watching it with interest for a few months and I think it deserves a little attention. See the following charts with annotations to understand my thinking:

GBPCAD monthly Zoomed out:



GBPCAD zoomed in:



Here is the daily chart showing the bullish preceding trend:



I will continue on the next post with how I intend to establish a position.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Here is the Daily chart showing ideally what I would like to happen:



I would be very interested to hear what others think about this. As I said in the last post, it is not exactly a typical PAST set up but I still think the theory behind the trade is sound and there is potential for a large move ahead.

Thanks

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Last post for the evening folks I promise

I have been thinking about recording a session of myself back testing this strategy. I think this would be good for 2 main reasons, it will hopefully help others learn by seeing how holding on to trades for the long run can really pay out handsomely. The difficult thing about trading and learning a strategy like this is it can take a very long time to really see the rewards of your efforts, until then, you have to trust that it is going to work. BY doing some testing, we can get through a lot more data in a much shorter period of time and this can build confidence in the system.

The 2nd reason is I think that recording my testing session will make me more honest with myself. I am sure you have all looked back at charts and either consciously or subconsciously ignored bad trades and told yourself you would have taken a trade when in real time you probably wouldn't. I think if I record the session with the knowledge that people in this forum may watch it, I am less likely to CHEAT. So for a purely selfish reason, that's why I want to do it.

If anyone thinks this is a good idea and would like to see this session I am off work tomorrow and would be able to do this.

Does anyone have a specific pair they want me to test. I have access to most majors and crosses with data since about 2001 so pick a pair and a year that you want me start and I will do it tomorrow.

Just a suggestion, I won't be offended if know one thinks this is a good idea.

Thanks

Stuart

 

[jonnymac]

HI stuart

I think that's a great idea it would help a lot of us and help you as well so go for it . Any pair for me . I am currently long on the aud/jpy up 233 points . But any pair would be good.
many thanks from John

 

[Abercrombie]

Stuart,

I'm sure a video of your backtesting would be a resource for anyone interested. As you mentioned, backtesting is only as helpful as you keep it honest. But I think it can be great for practicing with real market data while being able to speed up time. Your video could even help those that are new to backtesting. And if it helps you by keeping you honest, even better.

I can't say as I have a particular pair to suggest. My mischievous mind wants to name some obscure pair or even a cross, but that wouldn't be of any real help. Although after seeing the EURNOK setup, I do wonder how PAST would work outside of the major pairs. Guess I'm not much help, I'd best leave you to it.

Abercrombie

 

[stuart1984]

Stuart,

I'm sure a video of your backtesting would be a resource for anyone interested. As you mentioned, backtesting is only as helpful as you keep it honest. But I think it can be great for practicing with real market data while being able to speed up time. Your video could even help those that are new to backtesting. And if it helps you by keeping you honest, even better.

I can't say as I have a particular pair to suggest. My mischievous mind wants to name some obscure pair or even a cross, but that wouldn't be of any real help. Although after seeing the EURNOK setup, I do wonder how PAST would work outside of the major pairs. Guess I'm not much help, I'd best leave you to it.

Abercrombie

Thanks Abercrombie.

I will go ahead and do a video today. I will pick a pair and period at random.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

I am trying another short on GBPCHF:

in at 1.51745 SL @ 1.51985

Let's see how this goes.

Stuart

 

[hallettcove]

Stuart

Thanks for your detailed explanation of the GBPCAD pair. I will look forward to watching and learning from your video.

Les

 

[stuart1984]

Hi folks

I have recorded the video and I hope it is ok for everyone. Uploading to youtube as I write this so I will post the link when it is finished.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

First things first. Stopped out for a loss on todays GBPCHF position. Going to give it a rest for a little while until the bears take control again (if they do).

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Ok here goes guys and girls

Below is the link to watch the backtesting session I recorded this morning. Firstly, I apologise for the annoying clicking noise that can be heard throughout. My capture software was set to record mouse clicks and it gets a little annoying. I will turn it off for next time if there is one!.

I think this recorded session shows the power of risk reward really well. 18 trades, only 1 winner and a 46% increase on the account!!!!!!!!!!

I hope that some of you find this useful, I certainly have. I would be happy to do some more of these if people think it adds value to the forum, please let me know either way as it is quite time consuming to upload video's etc.

Enjoy:

http://youtu.be/WeewmsCwWiQ

Stuart

 

[myknees]

Ok here goes guys and girls

Below is the link to watch the backtesting session I recorded this morning. Firstly, I apologise for the annoying clicking noise that can be heard throughout. My capture software was set to record mouse clicks and it gets a little annoying. I will turn it off for next time if there is one!.

I think this recorded session shows the power of risk reward really well. 18 trades, only 1 winner and a 46% increase on the account!!!!!!!!!!

I hope that some of you find this useful, I certainly have. I would be happy to do some more of these if people think it adds value to the forum, please let me know either way as it is quite time consuming to upload video's etc.

Enjoy:

http://youtu.be/WeewmsCwWiQ

Stuart

That's truly awesome and much appreciated.

 

[Nigel Price]

Ok here goes guys and girls

Below is the link to watch the backtesting session I recorded this morning. Firstly, I apologise for the annoying clicking noise that can be heard throughout. My capture software was set to record mouse clicks and it gets a little annoying. I will turn it off for next time if there is one!.

I think this recorded session shows the power of risk reward really well. 18 trades, only 1 winner and a 46% increase on the account!!!!!!!!!!

I hope that some of you find this useful, I certainly have. I would be happy to do some more of these if people think it adds value to the forum, please let me know either way as it is quite time consuming to upload video's etc.

Enjoy:

http://youtu.be/WeewmsCwWiQ

Stuart

I can tell you, I wasn't expecting to see this when I logged in here!

That is absolutely fantastic Stuart, thank you so much for taking the trouble to put this video together!

I haven't managed to watch it in its absolute entirety yet, but if you took the time to put it together, certainly the least I can do is go through it in detail over the weekend and offer you my thoughts early next week.

Well done, this is such a valuable resource for our little group of traders!

Thanks again