Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
I also just wanted to say a big THANKS to Nigel for his analysis of my back testing video in the report this week.

I absolutely agree with everything he has said.

Good luck for the trading week ahead everyone.

Stuart
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Hi folks

Quiet forum this week.

Just wanted to update you guys and girls on my GBPUSD position. I decided to exit my position this morning, a few reasons for this:

1. I was sitting on a 21 x reward versus my initial investment. For me this is a sweet trade and I just didn't want to give any of it back.
2. The Gap down over the weekend concerned me. I felt it was likely that this gap would be closed in the near future.
3. I didn't like the look of yesterdays daily close.
4. With the Scottish referendum next week, we are likely to be in for some serious volatility, I didn't want to go into a week like that with a 21R trade and loose it all.

Anyway, I just thought I would share my thought process.

No open trades at the moment, I couldn't see anything worth trying on the weekly charts last week.

Hopefully something catches my eye next week.

Stuart
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Hello PAST traders

Hope everyone is having a good weekend.

Wow, I checked my charts on Friday evening and there are dozens of potential set-ups. Too many to post charts of here and so I have decided to do a quick video to cover my analysis for the week. I will post this video before this evening.

There are some general themes of strength and weekness that are evident just by looking at the charts.

Euro, GBP, CHF look like they are gaining strength again
AUD, NZD, CAD are looking like they are weakening
USD and JPY are a bit mixed

Stuart
 

Encantador

Trader
Sep 14, 2014
3
0
12
Hi,

Many thanks to Nigel for what looks like a great strategy.

I have been playing at this trading game a few years on and off but never settled on a decent strategy, or made any money unfortunately.

Recently I have been concentrating on my own swing strategy using the daily chart on the DOW. Although only demo trading this, it has made me realise that I am more comfortable on the longer time frames.
There are some similarities between this and PAST, the main one being is that you have to accept a few losers in the hope of getting the big moves.

I have read the PAST strategy a couple of times and think it could well suit me perfectly.

I have not yet read this whole thread, but have read enough to know there is a lot of knowlege here and even more friendly helpful people, which is refreshing to see.

I spread bet (never understood the `LOT` business). My brain needs things to be simple. I mainly use IG or ETX but also have demo and live accounts with GKFX. The live account starts at 10p per point, so ideal for testing ideas with real money.

I have a lot of questions about the strategy, I will post a couple shortly.

I think I am going to need a better charting package to follow this system, I put lines on IG`s advanced charts and they often just disappear. If anyone can recommend one that would be great.

Thanks

Steve
Midlands UK
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Hi,

Many thanks to Nigel for what looks like a great strategy.

I have been playing at this trading game a few years on and off but never settled on a decent strategy, or made any money unfortunately.

Recently I have been concentrating on my own swing strategy using the daily chart on the DOW. Although only demo trading this, it has made me realise that I am more comfortable on the longer time frames.
There are some similarities between this and PAST, the main one being is that you have to accept a few losers in the hope of getting the big moves.

I have read the PAST strategy a couple of times and think it could well suit me perfectly.

I have not yet read this whole thread, but have read enough to know there is a lot of knowlege here and even more friendly helpful people, which is refreshing to see.

I spread bet (never understood the `LOT` business). My brain needs things to be simple. I mainly use IG or ETX but also have demo and live accounts with GKFX. The live account starts at 10p per point, so ideal for testing ideas with real money.

I have a lot of questions about the strategy, I will post a couple shortly.

I think I am going to need a better charting package to follow this system, I put lines on IG`s advanced charts and they often just disappear. If anyone can recommend one that would be great.

Thanks

Steve
Midlands UK

Welcome Steve

This is a great strategy. Like all things it takes time to fully get to grips with but it is worth it in the end.

Look forward to your questions.

Stuart
 

Encantador

Trader
Sep 14, 2014
3
0
12
Thanks Stuart.

Questions in no particular order...

Can PAST be traded on the Indices?
Most of my recent experience has been on the DOW, coincidentally, there seems to be a possible reversal pattern on the weekly.

Is the entry on the break of a trendline or on the close above/below it?

What do you use to determine your exit? I think in one post Staurt you mentioned that you were not closing a trade because you had not reached your desired RR level, even though there was a weekly reversal pattern suggesting a possible move in the opposite direction.

I would have thought that would be the best time to close a winning trade in the hope of picking up the move in the opposite direction.

Or have I completely misunderstood what you meant?

More to follow.

Thanks

Steve
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Thanks Stuart.

Questions in no particular order...

Can PAST be traded on the Indices?
Most of my recent experience has been on the DOW, coincidentally, there seems to be a possible reversal pattern on the weekly.

Is the entry on the break of a trendline or on the close above/below it?

What do you use to determine your exit? I think in one post Staurt you mentioned that you were not closing a trade because you had not reached your desired RR level, even though there was a weekly reversal pattern suggesting a possible move in the opposite direction.

I would have thought that would be the best time to close a winning trade in the hope of picking up the move in the opposite direction.

Or have I completely misunderstood what you meant?

More to follow.

Thanks

Steve

Hi Steve

Yes PAST can be traded on the Indices. I would say it could be traded on anything fairly liquid with relatively low spreads. The Dow is not one I have any experience trading but I do watch the S&P500, AUS200 and JPN225.

The Dow Setup looks very like the SP500 chart and I would say it was definitely worth investigating further.

I once asked Nigel about the entry on break or close above/below and his response was that he tends to take it on the break. Personally, I usually wait for a close but this is normally because I am at work and can't be watching charts all the time. That being said, I do sometimes set a sell stop or buy stop order just below/above the trend line so effectively I am trading the break. I think this comes down to personal preference, whichever you feel most comfortable, go with.

Exits are probably the toughest part of this strategy. Generally speaking, If I see an opposing signal and I have not yet got 5 x initial risk, I will leave it open and just see what happens. If the trade is greater than 5 x initial risk, I will close at least part of the position. The reason for this is we really need to let our winners run, an opposing signal is not a guarantee that our trade is going to fail just like a signal on the anchor chart is no guarantee that our set up is going to work. I want more than 5 x initial risk on any given trade. Once again, this is personal preference, over time you will get a feel for what works best for you.

Regarding charting packages, MT4 works well for me, pretty sure IG and GKFX both have MT4 products.

Hope this helps

Stuart
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Morning Guys, I did a video on Saturday instead of the usual report in the Forex Useful newsletter.

Didn't get around to posting it until now - I was doing a half marathon yesterday. Bit stiff this morning!

It's slightly out of date, given the fact that I didn't get it uploaded before the market open last night, but much of the analysis still holds true.

Anyway, here goes... :D:D

Link to Youtube
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Morning Guys, I did a video on Saturday instead of the usual report in the Forex Useful newsletter.

Didn't get around to posting it until now - I was doing a half marathon yesterday. Bit stiff this morning!

It's slightly out of date, given the fact that I didn't get it uploaded before the market open last night, but much of the analysis still holds true.

Anyway, here goes... :D:D

Link to Youtube

Morning Nigel

Great minds and all that!! Haha
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
I see some questions in here from last week which I have missed, and some new faces!

I'll get around to having a closer look at them (the questions, not your faces) later today hopefully. :)
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Just an update on the CAD/JPY chart from the video earlier - the trendline wanted a little bit of adjusting to take account of the low that was posted during the Asian session.

As a side point, that's just something to bear in mind - after the market open on a Sunday night/early Monday morning, the bigger players in the market can push the price around more easily, due to the low liquidity. So at least until the European markets open, and especially London, the market is sometimes susceptible to false breaks.

I'm not saying don't trade then, I'm just saying just be aware of it and factor it into your trading decisions. :)

This is my current chart -


Click for large view
- Uploaded with Skitch
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Morning Guys, I did a video on Saturday instead of the usual report in the Forex Useful newsletter.

Didn't get around to posting it until now - I was doing a half marathon yesterday. Bit stiff this morning!

It's slightly out of date, given the fact that I didn't get it uploaded before the market open last night, but much of the analysis still holds true.

Anyway, here goes... :D:D

Link to Youtube

Thanks for the Video Nigel. I am only just getting round to watching it but definitely comforting to see that the 2 pairs you discussed were on my list in my video yesterday.

Have a great week trading

Stuart
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Morning folks

Quick update:

I took 2 losses yesterday - CADJPY short and CADCHF Short

I am currently in 3 trades:
CADJPY Short @ 97.03 SL @ 97.236
USDCHF Short @ 0.9362 SL @ 0.9407
EURAUD Long @ 1.4332 SL @ 1.4294

All are currently sitting n small profit but not enough to get to BE yet.

Stuart
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com

Hello Encantador/Steve, welcome aboard! I'm really hoping your real name is Encantador, and you just use Steve on forums!

Many thanks to Nigel for what looks like a great strategy.

No worries, thanks for the kind words

I have been playing at this trading game a few years on and off but never settled on a decent strategy, or made any money unfortunately.

I think that description applies to almost all retail traders at some point Steve. I've never come across anyone who has been successful straight off the bat. Retail trading is a process of discovery.

We all usually start out with get rich quick stuff, scams, then on to mechanical technical systems and their application, then expert advisors and robots and then finally, if you make it through all that, you eventually realise that successful trading is a combination of risk management and opportunity exploitation. Unfortunately, it is a damn hard slog to get through all the rubbish before you come to that realisation, and many abandon ship along the way.

Recently I have been concentrating on my own swing strategy using the daily chart on the DOW. Although only demo trading this, it has made me realise that I am more comfortable on the longer time frames.

Longer timeframes are where the big business and the big moves take place. It makes total sense for us to be active there too. If you are driving off to a destination and you are not sure of where you are going, you don't start with google maps zoomed right in on your final destination. You start zoomed out, you get a feel for your surroundings, get a feel for general direction. Only after that do you zoom right in and look at the minutiae - the individual streets, landmarks to look out for, etc.

Same applies for trading. Don't confine yourself to one or a couple of timeframes. Your google map doesn't change depending on far in or out you have zoomed. It's simply a different way of looking at the same information. Same with trading - flick around all the timeframes, zoom out, take in your surroundings, mark the direction you would like to see price go, and then mark where you know, if price gets there, it will have taken a wrong turn.


There are some similarities between this and PAST, the main one being is that you have to accept a few losers in the hope of getting the big moves.

I have read the PAST strategy a couple of times and think it could well suit me perfectly.

You don't need to try to apply my rules strictly Steve, take the bits you like from it and incorporate them into your own style. As long as you are trading in a way that strictly controls risk and exploits opportunities, you could be using tea leaves in the bottom of your cup to get in and out of the market, it doesn't matter :D

I have not yet read this whole thread, but have read enough to know there is a lot of knowlege here and even more friendly helpful people, which is refreshing to see.

We are privileged here to have a little band of such courteous, helpful and smart contributors to this thread. That is not normal in the world of trading forums. Long may it continue.

I spread bet (never understood the `LOT` business). My brain needs things to be simple.

Best way to be, no need to over-think or over-complicate matters.

I mainly use IG or ETX but also have demo and live accounts with GKFX. The live account starts at 10p per point, so ideal for testing ideas with real money.

Just make sure that you have enough to comfortably withstand a lot of losers Steve. And I don't necessarily mean looking at the maths of "well with my account I can withstand 50 losers in a row" type of reasoning, I mean being aware of how you feel. If you are getting uncomfortable with how fast your account is diminishing, lower the lot size or even go demo. There is no rush, there is no advantage to starting big. Start small, way smaller than you think you should, and work your way up. It's far better to build the confidence from the ground up, go through a few losing streaks, weather a few storms, and then gradually scale up.

Rejoice in the losers, you are learning every time a stop gets hit. Learn to thrive on that discomfort - with every loser you are one step closer to a big winner. It's a good feeling after you get used to it.

I have a lot of questions about the strategy, I will post a couple shortly.

I see Stuart has already jumped in there - I can't really add anything further

I think I am going to need a better charting package to follow this system, I put lines on IG`s advanced charts and they often just disappear. If anyone can recommend one that would be great.

I love TradingView. It's free, works on your browser, is easy to use and looks fantastic. I usually chart there and then just enter my orders on MT4.

When I was starting out as a lawyer, I was always encouraged to dress for the part. When you are going into court and you feel good, you definitely act more confidently and you perform better. You are walking just that little fraction taller, head held just a tiny bit higher, and trust me, it matters. Don't underestimate how important it is to be happy with your charts. You can change practically everything on them, so get a combination of colours and styles that you really like and are a pleasure for you to look at. Take pride in them, tweak them, and make them look good. A good mechanic always has a tidy workbench, everything in its place and all of his socket sets tidily filed away. A mechanic who has the place covered in oil, all of his sockets lost or missing, will generally treat his work, and your car's engine, with the same approach.

Thanks

Steve
Midlands UK

No worries Steve, thanks for your post :)
 
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