Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Looks like price has eased away now from this SP500 set-up I posted earlier.

I'd be in favour of selling rallies as long as the bears can keep price below the trendline.

Have a nice evening everyone :)
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Looks like price has eased away now from this SP500 set-up I posted earlier.

I'd be in favour of selling rallies as long as the bears can keep price below the trendline.

Have a nice evening everyone :)

Hi Nigel

Thanks for the posts. I would agree the equity markets seem to be fairly active recently and a large correction would not come as a huge surprise. I am in the SP500 short following an H1 trendline break, see chart:



I currently am also short NZDUSD up about 120 pips, a look at the monthly chart makes me think this pair could potentially drop a lot further:



And finally I am still short USDCAD. It seems to be consolidating at the moment, up about 80 pips currently and waiting for the market to make its move, here is the daily chart:



Happy trading everyone.

Stuart
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
I'm actually in short on NZDUSD at a very similar price to you there too Stuart.

Great minds :D

The swap is a bit of a pain on this one - as people have pointed out here before.

But as far as I am concerned, the only way the swap will mount up for me is if a trade is open for a long period of time. And if it is open for a long period of time, that generally means that it is moving into profit.

I don't have losing trades open for weeks, waiting for price to "come back". Often you'll find that people who complain about negative swap are operating strategies that force them to hold underwater trades open for a significant period of time. The swap makes that pain a little bit more acute, but it's not the root of the problem. It's not the swap that's causing them to lose money, it's attempting to run losers.

The only way I'll paying a lot of swap is if a trade stays open for a long period of time, and most often the trades of mine that are open the longest return the greatest profit. The swap is a bit of a pain alright, but I just put it down as a cost of business. It doesn't render the trade unviable.

Stop at B/E now, let's see what the market has in store for us this time.... :)
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
I'm actually in short on NZDUSD at a very similar price to you there too Stuart.

Great minds :D

The swap is a bit of a pain on this one - as people have pointed out here before.

But as far as I am concerned, the only way the swap will mount up for me is if a trade is open for a long period of time. And if it is open for a long period of time, that generally means that it is moving into profit.

I don't have losing trades open for weeks, waiting for price to "come back". Often you'll find that people who complain about negative swap are operating strategies that force them to hold underwater trades open for a significant period of time. The swap makes that pain a little bit more acute, but it's not the root of the problem. It's not the swap that's causing them to lose money, it's attempting to run losers.

The only way I'll paying a lot of swap is if a trade stays open for a long period of time, and most often the trades of mine that are open the longest return the greatest profit. The swap is a bit of a pain alright, but I just put it down as a cost of business. It doesn't render the trade unviable.

Stop at B/E now, let's see what the market has in store for us this time.... :)

Morning Nigel

I agree, the swap can be a nuisance but for me it is not a deciding factor, I won't take a trade because of it neither will I pass on a trade because of it.

I believe swap will balance itself out in the long run, sometimes working for you and sometimes working against you.

Good luck with the trades

Stuart
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Morning Nigel

I agree, the swap can be a nuisance but for me it is not a deciding factor, I won't take a trade because of it neither will I pass on a trade because of it.

I believe swap will balance itself out in the long run, sometimes working for you and sometimes working against you.

Good luck with the trades

Stuart

Well Stuart - S&P is being stubborn today, but NZDUSD is motoring on nicely now! :D
 

stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Well Stuart - S&P is being stubborn today, but NZDUSD is motoring on nicely now! :D

Yeh I got stopped out of the S&P for a loss but not to worry. NZDUSD looking good, USDCAD Still consolidating and I managed to get a position on NZDCAD short today which is now up about 50 pips.

All things considered its going well. I have a new sense of focus and discipline since going through your video course, thanks.

Stuart
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Hi Nigel,

As am a day trader, I need profit to b booked in that day only. For that am using day chart as anchor and confused with which lower time frame charts to b used?

Mandir - why do you need profit to be booked that day only?

Is this requirement something that you have determined by what improves your performance, or is it something that you have just decided for your own comfort?

A very important lesson I learnt a long time ago was that if you attempt to make the market fit in with you and your requirements, you'll usually end up disappointed. It just will refuse to play ball with you.

For me, I will do whatever it takes to gain the maximum performance from the market I can. If that means holding a trade open for 10 minutes or 10 weeks, it doesn't matter. I fit myself around the market, I don't try to make the market jump to my tune.

If you have a genuine need to be out of the market on a daily basis only, you are limited to whatever movement occurs on that particular day. That can end up being quite frustrating, because there are plenty of days when the market doesn't move much at all.

But listen, I don't want to influence you too much - if you are seeing good results from your current trading style, and closing all orders by the end of every day, by all means continue what you are doing, if it ain't broke, don't fix it!

Hope that helps,

Nigel
 
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stuart1984

Master Trader
Mar 22, 2014
362
0
52
Scotland
Hi folks

Having been through Nigel's video course I wanted to share the following with you all who are interested. One of the chapters in the course that I found particularly interesting was the chapters on expectancy. The calculator that Nigel provides with the course is great but I wanted to make something where it would tie into my own trade log.

I have created the attached spreadsheet which includes Nigel's 'Expectancy calculator' and 'In a Row' calculator where everything is automatically calculated for you as you log your trades in a simple trading journal.

Instructions for using this are as follows:

Column A - simply the number of your trade in sequence, ie. 1, 2, 3, 4 etc
Column B - Pair -EURUSD etc
Column C - Enter whether it is a buy or a sell.
Column D - Anchor Timeframe - A note of the timeframe where you spotted the PA signal
Column E - Risk % the % of your account balance you are risking on the trade
Column F - Risk £ the amount in money you are risking on the trade (please note the number needs to be a positive number)
Column G - How you actually entered the trade was it a break/retest or something else.
Column H - The finishing result of the trade Win(W), Loss(L), Break Even(BE). Please note you need to enter W or L or BE in this column for some formulas to work.
Column I - The amount you earn when the trade is closed fully.

Everything else is calculated automatically for you.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ac8gw71f2kz64g/PAST log Blank.xlsx?dl=0

Hope some of you find this useful.

Stuart
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Nevertheless, this is the minor trendline I will be watching for a break of.


Click for large view
- Uploaded with Skitch

If it does happen, we will probably have to wait for the FOMC.

Things could get quite sporty today if the bulls throw in the towel at these levels.

From a technical perspective, it couldn't really be much nicer, but as I have said before, the bears have got steamrolled anytime this has happened in the last 5 years.
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
In terms of the large, long-term trendline, don't stress too much about where to draw it, and where it comes in on your chart etc.

When you are working with that amount of data, over that period of time, there simply can't be consistency. That's why I always chuckle when I hear people talk about "right" and "wrong" trendlines. There is no such thing.

Their job is to give you some context to your chart - a reference point to determine how you should be positioning yourself - bullish/bearish/offensive/defensive

I can't tell you exactly where that long term trendline comes in, I don't know.

But I do know that a very long term trendline has been broken, and we now look like we might testing somewhere underneath it.

If that doesn't make your trading ears prick up, nothing will :D
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Of course, a very possible scenario, even probable, is that the FOMC is super-dovish as usual, and the bulls storm off to new all time highs, yet again.

If that happens, we have to consider what is success for this trade.

If bulls storm off to new highs today, I will deem this trade a success if:

1. I don't take a trade at all, or
2. I take a short trade on a break of a trendline, but sustain a small and manageable loss.

That's it.

A losing trade can still be a successful trade. You'll not hear many of the trading gurus about the place tell you that :)
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com

Click for large view
- Uploaded with Skitch

In at 1980 guys, let's see what happens.

Stop at 1986. Carrying a small loss currently, but hopefully we will roll over from here. But if we don't it's not a huge loss.

We spiked down to 1965 after the news release, but we have made it back up to where we started now. Probably should have got the stop to breakeven then, but I was away from the screen so missed my opportunity.

Will keep and an eye on it and keep you updated here :)
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Took that small loss overnight - but, still tracking my lines here today.

The trendline I am watching is coming in at around 1975 - 1980.

Will get myself short on a break to the downside, stand aside if we move higher.

That's two small manageable losses I have taken on this setup so far.

Let's see if we can get some traction on it to the downside today. :D
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com

Click for large view
- Uploaded with Skitch

Current chart - got an entry, but we are drifting higher again...

Par for the course for the bears really, so we shouldn't be surprised. But I am very happy with my exposure here - my potential reward is far higher than my risk.

Stairs up, elevator down and all that :D