The euro is actively losing value in tandem with the US currency, dropping to its lowest level since 2017 against the backdrop of investors redirecting capital from risky assets to "protective" ones. Traders fear a slowdown in global economic growth and acceleration of inflation, and also hope for decisive steps to adjust monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. In the event of an increase in the interest rate immediately by 0.50%, the US dollar will receive support, and experts believe that the US economy will be able to cope with geopolitical challenges better than the European one. Now the quotes of EURUSD are trading around 1.0502.
After the refusal of countries "unfriendly" to Russia to adhere to the new scheme of paying for energy resources in rubles, the day before, the PJSC Gazprom announced the termination of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. Against this background, the exchange price of gas soared by 16% and rose above 1.35K dollars per thousand cubic meters. A number of countries have already recognized this step as a violation of the terms of the contract, but assured the population that in case of force majeure, fallback options have long been provided. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted the unreliability of Russia as an energy supplier, saying that Poland and Bulgaria will now receive "blue fuel" from other countries, but she did not specify the cost of these supplies. In addition, eurozone macroeconomic indicators continue to deteriorate. The German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey fell to -26.5 points from -15.7 points a month earlier, and the French Consumer Confidence Index fell from 90 to 88 points.
The American currency, on the contrary, continues to rise and yesterday reached its highs over the past six years, having consolidated above 103.000 in the USD Index. The dynamics of the dollar cannot be pressured even by the deterioration in the borrowing market, where for the seventh month in a row the growth of the rate on 30-year mortgage loans has continued. The day before, the indicator reached 5.37%, up from 5.20%, which once again leads to higher cost of loans for those wishing to purchase housing in the United States.
EURUSD continues to trade within a wide downward channel, coming close to the support line. Technical indicators maintain the global sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator continues to decline in the sell zone, forming descending bars.
Support levels: 1.0432, 1.005 | Resistance levels: 1.0636, 1.112
