Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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WTI Oil Analysis: Price Falls 10% in Less Than a Week

In our article “Oil Analysis: Finally, A Bearish Reversal?” on September 21, we drew attention to emerging signs that the initiative was shifting to the bears. This was noticeable in the changes in the dynamics of impulses and corrections, as well as in the analysis of the interaction between trading volumes and prices.

Since then, the bulls were able to update the high of the year on September 28, but the price did not stay there for long, falling sharply in the following days. Three bearish candles formed on the chart, which confirmed the problems of the bulls, and the double top pattern (A-B) also became relevant.

Another principle of technical analysis that emphasized the dominance of supply over demand is that each upward move was approximately 2 times weaker than the downward move. This can be seen in the consistent structure characteristic of a bearish trend:

→ the C→D move is approximately 50% of the B→C bearish momentum;

→ the rebound from the median line of the ascending channel E→F is approximately 50% of the bearish impulse D→E;

→ the bounce from the (now former) support line 87.50 G→H is approximately 50% of the bearish momentum F→G.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Oct 5, 2023

USD/CHF Analysis: Rate Rises to Its Highest in Six Months

This happened against the backdrop of rising US bond yields. Reuters writes that it is in the region of a 16-year high. It is reasonable to assume that big capital was balancing its defensive portfolio by selling the franc, considered a safe haven, and buying dollars to invest in American bonds, which also have high-quality status.

On July 13, we wrote that the franc could rebound from the lower line of the channel (shown in red). This was supposed to be facilitated by hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and, as a result, the strengthening of the dollar.

However, now the situation has reversed. The USD/CHF rate expanded the range of a larger downward channel and reached its upper limit. It even tried to break out of it on October 3 (but without noticeable success).

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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CEO Sells Shares, AAPL Price Underperforms Market

As it became known yesterday:

→ Tim Cook sold shares, selling 511k of his existing package of more than 3 million shares. For information: in 2023, he took a salary reduction of approximately 40%, but increased the size of the bonus (tied to the company's success) in the form of shares from 50% to 75%.
→ Investment bank KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded AAPL shares. Analysts believe the company's sales will fall amid lower consumer spending.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Oct 5, 2023

European Currencies Have Found a Short-term Bottom

A weak employment report from ADR and a decline in the US services PMI contributed to the start of a corrective pullback in major currency pairs. Thus, the EUR/USD pair went above 1.0500, the GBP/USD pair is forming a bullish engulfing combination, and the USD/JPY pair fell below 149.00.

GBP/USD

The decline of the British currency was interrupted after the publication of data on the business activity index in the UK services sector for September. The indicator showed impressive growth: 49.3 against the forecast of 47.2. The composite business activity index (PMI) also turned out to be positive: 48.5 versus 46.8. Such positive statistics allowed pound buyers to find support just above 1.2000 and close yesterday with a reversal ‘bullish engulfing’ combination. If today we receive confirmation of the indicated signal in the form of any white candle, the price may return to 1.2280-1.2300.

Today's news on the business activity index in the UK construction sector for September will be important for the pair's pricing. It is also worth paying attention to the speech of Ben Broadbent, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Aim Steady Recovery

AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6285. NZD/USD is also rising and facing a major hurdle near the 0.5980 level.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.5870 and is now recovering against the US Dollar.
• There is a key rising channel forming with resistance near 0.6385 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 0.5930 resistance.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.5950 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair recovered above 0.6450. However, the Aussie Dollar failed to clear 0.6500 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

The pair declined below the 0.6385 support. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 0.6285 zone. A low was formed near 0.6285 and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6500 swing high to the 0.6285 low.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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NFLX Analysis: Changes in Management, Price at Minimum

Yesterday, the NFLX share price dropped below USD 370, the lowest since late May of this year, and about -22% from the July peak.

Note that on July 6, we wrote that the NFLX stock price could meet resistance at USD 450 per share, and the signals from the chart gave bearish warnings. Just since July, the stock price began to perform worse than the broad S&P 500 market index.

Perhaps the company knows better about the reasons for the emerging negative dynamics and is making changes in management. This week it became known about the appointment of Amy Reinhard to the post of president of the company's advertising business. New product directors and technical directors were also appointed.

Will new executives help the stock return to its upward trajectory?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Oct 6, 2023

USD/JPY Analysis: Psychological Level Changes the Price Sharply

On Tuesday, the US dollar rose above the psychological level of 150 for the first time since October 2022 before falling sharply to a low of 147.30 as the yen rose.

The media are discussing whether this movement confirms the fact of intervention on the part of the Japanese authorities.

On the one hand, there are opinions that the yen's movement on Tuesday was much smaller (about 1.7%) than when the authorities intervened last year (the change was about 4%) to support the yen.

On the other hand, there are no clear explanations about the reasons for the sharp movement — except as a manifestation of the authorities’ interest in preventing excessive weakening of the national currency. Perhaps only about the influence of psychology when reaching and short-term exceeding the round figure — an effect that, by the way, is characteristic of the cryptocurrency market.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Oct 6, 2023

US Dollar Falls Ahead of Employment Data

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0540. The European currency ended the last two trading sessions with moderate growth, which allowed the pair to retreat from the record lows of December 2022. The driver of the correctional dynamics was the expectation of the publication of the September report on the labour market in the United States. Analysts are currently forecasting a slight decline in new nonfarm payrolls from 187.0k to 170.0k. Average hourly wages in September could rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, while the annual figure will likely remain unchanged at 4.3%. The unemployment rate is expected to correct from 3.8% to 3.7%.

At the same time, trading participants have information from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company presented on Wednesday: in September, the dynamics of employment in the private sector slowed from 180.0k to 89.0k, which turned out to be significantly worse than the 153.0k expected by experts. A more confident growth of the single currency was hampered by statistics on foreign trade in Germany, published the day before: export volumes in August decreased by 1.2% after -1.9% in the previous month, while analysts expected -0.4%, and imports, by 0.4% after -1.3% with a forecast of growth of 0.5%. Against this background, the country's trade surplus decreased from 17.7 billion euros to 16.6 billion euros, which turned out to be better than expectations of 15.0 billion euros.

Based on the highs of two days, a new ascending channel has formed. Now, the price has moved away from the upper border of the channel and may continue to move towards the lower border.

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Natural Gas Price Reaches 8-month High

As the chart shows, yesterday, the price of gas rose above USD 3.60 for the first time since January of this year.

It can be assumed that events in Israel contributed to the price increase, since the Middle East is an important supplier of gas.

However, note that the bullish momentum started much earlier — gas prices have risen approximately 20% since the October 3 low. This confirms our assumptions about the bullish trend, which we published in the review on August 25th.

Perhaps the price of gas is influenced by seasonal factors and fears that weather conditions in the coming winter will be difficult.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Oct 10, 2023

Bitcoin Price Cannot Stay above $28k

The first day of October coincided with the first attempt of the bulls to overcome the resistance level of USD 28,000 per coin, but on the 2nd of October, the sellers showed their presence. Since that time, the price has repeatedly exceeded the level of 28k, but each time not for long, after which a decline followed.

Yesterday, there was another such decline. As the BTC/USD chart shows today, the rate is around 27,600. And it seems that the bulls may no longer have the strength to make a new attempt.

Analyzing the bitcoin market on September 8, we pointed out a list of bearish arguments that give reason to doubt the positive prospects for bitcoin. The described price action of about 28k is another bearish argument in this list.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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BOE Concentrates on Persistent Inflation Whilst US Stocks Fly

Bank of England policy committee member Catherine Mann emphasised the need for a more aggressive central bank response to prolonged inflation exceeding target levels. She highlighted the importance of addressing not only the current high inflation but also the risk of inflation expectations rising in the future. Ms. Mann's call for a proactive approach to inflation management came after her preference for a rate increase at the BOE's last meeting, while her colleagues voted to maintain the status quo.

According to Ms. Mann, "Policy has to be more aggressive because it has to address both a drift in expectations as well as the actual inflation." She expressed concern about the persistence and duration of elevated inflation, underscoring the importance of managing embedded inflation expectations.

The British pound is moving upward against the US dollar for the sixth day.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Oct 10, 2023

Major Currency Pairs Correct after Sharp Declines

The fairly positive US jobs report released last Friday ultimately led to a corrective pullback in almost all currency pairs. The US dollar fell against the yen, commodity currencies, the pound, and the euro. However, not all pairs managed to overcome the key ranges; the size of the corrective pullback and the possibility of a reversal will depend on the incoming fundamental events of the coming trading sessions.

USD/CAD

In the US dollar/loonie pair, we are seeing the bearish tweezer pattern, formed on October 5, working out. The combination was confirmed the next day with a long black candle. The nearest range where the price can fall is from 1.3540 to 1.3500. Cancellation of the downward scenario may occur after a confident consolidation above 1.3700.

Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak today, in particular Neel Kashkari and Christopher Waller. Comments from these officials could have a significant impact on the pair's pricing.

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EUR/USD Attempts Recovery While USD/CHF Revisits Support

EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0550 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now trading near the 1.0450 support zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0550 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF declined below the 0.9140 and 0.9080 support levels.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9080 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0450 level. The Euro even cleared the 1.0485 barrier to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0570. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0615 resistance. It is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0519 swing low to the 1.0619 high.

Immediate support on the downside is 1.0595. The next major support is near a bullish trend line at 1.0570 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0519 swing low to the 1.0619 high. A downside break below the 1.0570 support could send the pair toward the 1.0485 level.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.0615 zone. The first major resistance is near the 1.0650 level. An upside break above the 1.0650 level might send the pair toward the 1.0700 resistance.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0720 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0800 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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NZD/USD Analysis: The Rate Reaches a 2-month High

This morning, as the NZD/USD chart shows, one USD was worth 0.605 New Zealand dollar, for the first time since August 10.

The strengthening of NZD was facilitated by:
→ rumours that China is planning a major stimulus package to boost the economy amid the real estate crisis. And the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as one can see, are showing growth against the backdrop of positive news from China;
→ the weakness of the US dollar due to the fact that Fed members make it clear in their statements that it is no longer worth raising rates further.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Oct 11, 2023

Bank of England Expresses Concern Over Overvalued US Tech Stocks Amid Macro-Economic Uncertainty

The Bank of England has voiced concerns over the soaring valuations of US technology stocks, citing the current macroeconomic landscape and the surge in interest rates. This commentary underscores the evolving dynamics in global financial markets.

The UK stock market stands in stark contrast to its tech-focused counterpart in the United States, particularly the NASDAQ. The London Stock Exchange is home to well-established blue-chip firms with traditional corporate foundations.

These companies span industries such as retail, pharmaceuticals, energy, leisure, and heavy industry. In contrast, NASDAQ boasts tech giants from Silicon Valley, including titans like Apple and Google, as well as recent entrants through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), with valuations soaring into the billions.

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Post automatically merged: Oct 11, 2023

The Dollar Continues to Correct in Anticipation of the FOMC Minutes Publication

In the middle of this week, the main currency pairs continued their upward correction against the US dollar. Buyers of the EUR/USD pair managed to pass the level of 1.0600, the GBP/USD currency pair tested the important level of 1.2300, and sellers of USD/JPY yesterday tried to break through the support level at 148.00. However, the current market situation may change at any time, as very important macroeconomic data is expected to be published in the coming trading sessions.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading in a narrow sideways range between 148.20 and 149.50. Investors are wary of currency interventions by the Bank of Japan, which may become relevant if the price passes the level of 150.00. However, sellers are in no hurry to enter into transactions since the Fed most likely does not plan to change monetary policy in the coming months. The large gap between yen and dollar interest rates makes this pair very attractive to buy and prevents it from falling below 148.00-147.00. Any hints of a change in monetary policy by the American regulator or disappointment in the fundamental indicators of the dollar could cause a sharp decline in the pair.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3, the publication of data on producer prices (PPI) in the United States for September is expected. At 21:00 GMT+3, the minutes of the last Fed meeting will be published. Alsoб early the next morning, it is worth paying attention to the speech of a member of the board of directors of the Bank of Japan, Asahi Noguchi.

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E-mini S&P 500 Positive Ahead of Earnings Season

As we wrote in our October 8 market analysis, the S&P 500 chart made bullish arguments, including:
→ the S&P 500 price has reached the lower boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ RSI fell to its minimum in 12 months.

Technically, these factors were justified, because today, the S&P 500 has strengthened, the price is near the psychological level of 4,400. Yesterday’s news also contributed to this:
→ inflation suddenly accelerated. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was 0.5%, although 0.3% was expected. The acceleration of inflation was influenced by the September peak in the oil market. But with the price of oil already back more than 10% from its peak, traders are not expected to be too worried about the PPI rise;
→ a "majority" of Fed officials thought another rate hike would "likely be appropriate" to help cool demand and bring inflation closer to its 2% inflation target over the next two years, while "some" said “no". “Participants generally noted that it was important to balance the risk of overtightening against the risk of insufficient tightening,” the minutes said.

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Post automatically merged: Oct 12, 2023

Markets Awaiting US Inflation Data

Yesterday, the major currency pairs were trading in fairly narrow ranges. Positive data on the US producer price index for September and the publication of the latest Fed minutes did not contribute to increased volatility in the market. Most likely, investors are expecting today's inflation data in the US. If the indicator is at the forecast level or even lower, this could lead to a change in the Fed's monetary policy, which in turn could contribute to the start of a medium-term downward impulse for the US dollar. Conversely, high inflation could force officials to keep rates high for a long time, which could trigger a new wave of greenback growth.

USD/CAD

After a sharp decline last week, the USD/CAD pair found strong support in the 1.3600-1.3570 range. At these marks, there are alligator lines on the daily timeframe. Price behaviour at a given location can provide more clues as to the future direction of the pair. A sharp rebound from current levels could return the price back to 1.3700-1.3780. But a move below 1.3520 may contribute to a renewed decline in the direction of lower fractals at 1.3415 and 1.3370.

In addition to inflation data, today at 15:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Also, at 18:00 GMT+3, weekly data on crude oil inventories will be released.

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The Price of Gold Rises More Than 5% Since Last Friday

The rise in the price of the (considered a safe haven) asset was driven by:
→ escalation of geopolitical conflicts;
→ increasing US government debt and rising bond prices make gold a more attractive option for a defensive portfolio.

Also, according to Business Insider, global central banks are buying gold in an effort to diversify reserves away from the dollar.

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Post automatically merged: Oct 12, 2023

GBP/USD Analysis: The Rate Is Near October Highs

In early October, the GBP/USD decline exceeded 10% from its summer high, which was very worrying. However, the weakening of the US dollar and changes in sentiment in the US government bond market allowed the pound to strengthen.

Important news about UK GDP was published this morning:
→ The Office for National Statistics estimates that real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% in August 2023, after falling 0.6% in July 2023;
→ production of services grew by 0.4% in August 2023 and became the main driver of GDP growth;
→ the construction sector performed worse than others, falling 0.5% in August 2023 after falling 0.4% in July 2023.

In general, although the UK GDP picture gives reason for some optimism, the GBP/USD rate today reacted with a decline to the publication of this news. Perhaps influencing factors that are noticeable to technical analysis are coming into play?

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Gold Price Surges While Crude Oil Price Dips Amid Israel-Hamas War

Gold price surged above the $1,848 resistance after the Israel-Hamas war escalated. Crude oil price saw swing moves and is now trading below the $83.70 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $1,810 zone against the US Dollar.
• A key rising channel is forming with support near $1,868 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices failed to clear the $86.00 region and corrected gains.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $83.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,810 zone. The price started a steady increase after the Israel-Hamas war.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $1,848 and $1,868 resistance levels. Finally, the price tested the $1,885 zone before the bears appeared.

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Post automatically merged: Oct 13, 2023

The Probability of Oil Prices Rising to $100 Is Increasing

This week, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman visited Moscow to discuss plans for oil production in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Russian president announced that Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts are "likely" to continue.

Meanwhile, Magid Shenouda, deputy chief executive of commodities trading giant Mercuria, told the industry conference in the UAE that oil prices could reach USD 100 a barrel if the situation in the Middle East worsens.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Oct 13, 2023

EURUSD Analysis: New Test for Support Level of 1.0500

Yesterday, another indicator of inflation in the United States was published — the CPI (Consumer Price Index). Like the PPI (Producer Price Index), the values of which were published on Wednesday, the CPI index indicated that inflation in the US remains stable (actual = 3.7%, forecast = 3.6%, a month earlier = 3.7%, two months earlier = 3.2%), however, this time, the reaction of market participants was sharper:
→ the stock market declined;
→ gold fell in price (although buyers in the Asian session on Friday contributed to the recovery);
→ the dollar index rose sharply.

Before the publication of news about inflation, the probability of a rate hike at the December Fed meeting was at 28%, but now it is 40%. The thesis “higher rates for a longer time” has returned to relevance.

For a technical analyst, changes in sentiment and spikes in volatility provide a new piece of valuable information. Let's take the EUR/USD chart for example.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Watch FXOpen's 9 - 13 October Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: OIL & ISRAEL-GAZA CONFLICT , S&P 500 POSITIVE, GOLD RISEN.

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Markets: US Stocks Decline, Oil Surges Amid Israel-Gaza Conflict #Oil
• E-mini S&P 500 Positive Ahead of Earnings Season #eminiS&P500 #earningsseason
• Markets awaiting US inflation data #USinflation
• The price of gold has risen more than 5% since last Friday #Gold

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

 

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GBP/USD Restarts Decrease, EUR/GBP Aims Higher

GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2335 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8665 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is again declining and trading below the 1.2200 support.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.2220 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is rising and trading above the 0.8650 zone.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.8635 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a fresh increase above 1.2200. However, the British Pound failed above 1.2320 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.2250 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.2220. It opened the doors for a move toward the 1.2120 level.

A low is formed near 1.2122 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2337 swing high to the 1.2122 low at 1.2175.

The next major resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.2200. The main resistance could be the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2337 swing high to the 1.2122 low at 1.2220.

A close above the 1.2220 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2335. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2450.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2120. If there is a downside break below the 1.2120 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2040 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2020. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2000 support.

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[Resolve]

S&P500 Volatility: Is It 1987 All Over Again? Not Yet!

Just over a week has passed since global headlines were dominated by reports on the beginning of renewed and far more serious than usual conflict in Israel and Gaza, drawing attention away from various other subjects, be they social or financial.

The inundation of social media posts and news articles has become the norm, even affecting professional platforms like LinkedIn, where many are sharing personal accounts and opinions from near and far on the geopolitical situation rather than business-related content.

In such critical geopolitical moments, it's almost inevitable that financial markets experience some form of impact.

Last week, when European and American markets opened for trading after the conflict began, the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges, along with the US dollar, experienced significant value gains. This surge can be attributed to the presence of military companies listed on American exchanges, which garnered investor confidence in anticipation of heightened demand.

However, as the conflict rages on with no sign of peace and escalating tensions, the S&P 500 index has seen a dip.

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Post automatically merged: Oct 16, 2023

In One Session, Price of Gold Rose by Approximately $60

The opening price on Friday was around 1,870, the closing price was around 1,930. The reason for the rapid growth of the XAU/USD quote is geopolitical tension. Israeli forces announced a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, which may be why before the weekend the markets were dominated by the forces of demand for gold as a defensive asset.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Israel's actions went beyond self-defense. And the famous investor Ray Dalio expressed the opinion that the risk of global war is 50% due to the situation in the Middle East.

The XAU/USD chart shows that the price of gold has reached the upper limit of the downward channel.

Technically:
→ the price of gold may encounter resistance from the upper border;
→ the price may roll back from the overbought zone, which is indicated by the stochastic oscillator;
→ the price may be supported by the psychological level of 1,900;
→ support may be provided by the level of 1,885; previously the price formed reversals from it.

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[Resolve]

Dollar Consolidates Near Record Highs

In the US, the August budget report will be published today, followed by September data on retail sales and industrial production tomorrow. Experts expect a slowdown in production dynamics from 0.4% to 0.1%. Sales data could decline from 0.6% to 0.2%, while the ex-automotive figure could slow from 0.6% to 0.1%. The monthly budget report from the US Federal Reserve expects a deficit of USD 78.6 billion in August after a surplus of USD 89.0 billion the month before. Hawks do not rule out another increase in borrowing costs in November, but the main scenario at the moment seems to be maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, given the gradual decline in inflationary pressure.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is showing weak growth, correcting after last week's bearish end, as a result of which the euro retreated from local lows of September 25. The pair is testing the 1.0525 mark for a breakout upward in anticipation of the emergence of new drivers on the market.

The focus of investors today will be the September statistics on the consumer price index in Italy: forecasts suggest that the indicator will remain at 0.2% monthly and 5.3% annual. Also, during the day, the EU will present August data on the dynamics of the trade balance. Investors are still trying to assess the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy by European and American regulators.

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[Resolve]

Wall Street Awaits Earnings from Tesla and Netflix

According to Yahoo Finance, the third-quarter earnings season started well despite the uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Already, 32 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings, according to Bank of America Research's equity strategy group. Moreover:
→ actual earnings per share exceeded Wall Street expectations by an average of 9%;
→ EPS increased 1% compared to the same quarter last year, which is a positive sign.

This week's headliners could be reports from Tesla and Netflix, which are important components of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.

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Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2023

Bitcoin Tests Psychological Level of $30k

Paradoxically, cryptocurrencies, which conceptually pursue decentralization goals, have become overly sensitive to regulatory news.

Surprising news from Cointelegraph that the SEC would approve an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock raised the price of the coin to USD 30,000.

The market’s positivity was added by the opinion of SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, who believes that Bitcoin’s capitalization can with ease reach USD 15 trillion due to the actions of the Fed and global de-dollarization.

On some crypto exchanges, the price of derivatives associated with the main cryptocurrency even significantly exceeded the psychological mark of USD 30k.

However, Cointelegraph later deleted the post.

And on Tuesday morning, the BTC/USD rate consolidated below 29k USD.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Oct 17, 2023

Pound, Yen, and Euro Test Important Supports

The rise in the core consumer price index in the US, published last week, contributed to the start of a new upward impulse for the US dollar. European and commodity currencies interrupted the upward correction that began in early October and retested significant supports.

Thus, the GBP/USD currency pair almost reached 1.2100, the EUR/USD pair fell below 1.0500, and USD/JPY buyers lacked a couple of dozen points to update the recent high at 150.20. However, yesterday, greenback sellers managed to seize the initiative, and the American currency had to retreat from record highs of the current year. The continuation of recent trends will depend on the incoming fundamental data of the coming trading sessions.

USD/JPY

The failure of USD/JPY buyers to consolidate above 150.00 may lead to another downward impulse in the direction of 148.20-147.40. Over the past three weeks, the price has tried several times to overcome the resistance at 150.20-149.80, but as we see, to no avail. On the daily timeframe, we can see the formation of a double top pattern, which will be confirmed after moving below 147.40. At the moment, the pair is trading in a rather narrow flat corridor, to exit from which, most likely, a good news driver is needed.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for the publication of data on the basic US retail sales index for September. Michelle Bowman, a member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is scheduled to speak a little later.

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[Resolve]

EUR/USD Could Recover, USD/JPY Inches Toward 150.00

EUR/USD is slowly moving higher from the 1.0500 level. USD/JPY is rising and might soon attempt a move above the 150.00 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a decent increase above the 1.0570 pivot level.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 149.00 and 149.45 levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 149.45 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.0640 zone. The Euro declined below the 1.0595 support zone against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 1.0500 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0639 swing high to the 1.0495 low.

The pair even settled above the 1.0570 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0570.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0639 swing high to the 1.0495 low at 1.0585. The next major resistance is near 1.0595. An upside break above 1.0595 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0640.

If not, the pair might start a fresh decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0570. The next key support is at 1.0530. If there is a downside break below 1.0530, the pair could drop toward 1.0500. The next support is near 1.0480, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Post automatically merged: Oct 18, 2023

GBP/USD Analysis: Inflation Stabilises, Pound Rises in Price

UK inflation data was released this morning, showing that consumer price inflation (CPI) held steady at 6.7% in September, although economists had expected 6.6%, which would mean the CPI would continue to decline from its peak of 11.1%, achieved at the end of last year.

These data provide evidence to suggest that inflation has stalled. And the Bank of England will have to make another interest rate increase. Tighter monetary policy → more expensive currency. Therefore, the pound reacted to the news that inflation had not changed with short-term growth relative to other currencies.

On the GBP/USD chart, a picture emerges indicating that the pound has found important support at the level of 1.215. Judge for yourself:

→ On September 27, the rate dropped lower very uncertainly, but rose very confidently the next day;
→ On October 3, the dive below the level of 1.215 was more significant, but the recovery again was not long in coming. And the bulls were able to lift the GBP/USD rate from the October 4 low by more than 2%;
→ Long lower shadows on the candles (the most noticeable on October 6) indicate demand strength around 1.215;
→ Analysis of the price movement on October 13 shows that this horizontal continues to provide support.

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Post automatically merged: Oct 18, 2023

Major Currency Pairs Consolidating in Anticipation of Signals from the Fed

In the middle of the current five-day period, the main currency pairs continue to trade in rather narrow ranges. Most likely, investors and market participants are waiting for comments from Jerome Powell on further monetary policy as inflation continues to rise in the United States. The head of the Fed will speak tomorrow at 19:00 GMT+3; his statements on the economic situation in the United States and around the world may enhance or change existing market trends.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD currency pair has been trading in a narrow corridor of 100 pips between 1.3700 and 1.3600 in recent trading sessions. The rise in oil prices is strengthening the Canadian dollar, while the hawkish Fed policy is keeping the pair close to the extremes of the current year. Technically, a price move below 1.3600 could contribute to a retest of the important 1.3420-1.3400 range. If greenback buyers break the resistance at 1.3780, the price may resume growth in the direction of 1.3900-1.4000.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on the number of building permits issued in the United States for September. Weekly data on crude oil inventories will be published a little later. Also, at 19:00 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the speech of Christopher Waller from the Fed.

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[Resolve]

NFLX Price Soars 12% after Strong Report

Yesterday's closing price was 345.83, but this morning, NFLX's price rose above USD 390 per share in premarket trading. The reason is a strong report:
→ earnings per share = USD 3.73, expected = USD 3.49;
→ revenue = USD 8.54 billion, a year ago = USD 7.9 billion.
→ the main surprise is that the number of subscribers grew by an impressive 8.76 million in the third quarter (about 6 million were expected). The number of subscribers worldwide is approaching 250 million.

Given the increase in demand for its service, Netflix has decided to raise the price of its basic plan in the US to USD 11.99 per month from USD 9.99, and raise the price of its premium subscription to USD 22.99 per month from USD 19.99. This could attract more earnings per share in the future, which is what has helped NFLX's price soar.

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Post automatically merged: Oct 19, 2023

On Factors Influencing the Price of Oil: Biden, Israel, Venezuela

Pushing off the lower boundary of the ascending channel, the price of Brent oil rose by more than 8% amid fears of an escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which should pose a problem both for the US economy, which suffers from high inflation, and for President Biden personally on the eve of the elections.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that oil reserves in US strategic storage facilities are near minimums since 2014. That is why:
→ it can be assumed that the goal of containing the rise in oil prices was one of the motives for Biden’s visit to Israel on Wednesday. It is expected that the price of oil may be affected by Biden's speech from the Oval Office, scheduled for Thursday evening 20:00 ET (or Friday night at 03:00 GMT+3);
→ the United States has eased sanctions against Venezuela, which has the largest oil reserves in the world.

From a technical analysis perspective, a rally from the October lows (B) after a decline from the September highs (A) may confirm that important divergent drivers are battling in the market.

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Post automatically merged: Oct 19, 2023

TSLA Stock Price Breaks 2023 Trend

According to the earnings report published yesterday:
→ Tesla's revenue for the 3rd quarter amounted to USD 23.35 billion, expected USD 24.18 billion;
→ earnings per share amounted to USD 0.66, expected USD 0.73.

That is, the actual numbers turned out to be worse than forecasts. But the main negative can be considered the statements of Elon Musk, according to which:
→ investors' expectations from Cybertruck should be moderated; it may take from a year to 18 months for a positive effect from this product. Although the company already has about 1 million applications, the company will be able to start producing about a quarter of a million cars per year approximately in 2025;
→ the company is currently pausing the construction of a plant in Mexico;
→ the policy of high interest rates has a great impact on the activities of both the company and the global economy.

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[Resolve]

Consolidation of Major Currency Pairs Continues

The US dollar has resumed growth in almost all directions, but key levels have not yet been broken. Thus, the AUD/USD currency pair is approaching October lows just below 0.6300, the pound/US dollar has retested 1.2100, and the US dollar/yen is consolidating near 150.00.

USD/JPY

A possible Fed rate hike due to rising inflation, as well as good data on the core retail sales index and industrial production in the US, published at the beginning of the week, keep the pair from developing a full-fledged downward correction. At the same time, as we see, incoming data is not yet enough to consolidate above 150.00. Most likely, buyers need an additional news background to resume impulse growth. If the foundation of the next trading sessions is positive for the American currency, a renewal of the recent high at 150.20 and a resumption of growth in the direction of last year’s extremes at 151.80m may occur. We could consider cancelling the upward scenario if the pair falls below 147.80.

Today's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be important for the pair's pricing. Tomorrow morning, you should pay attention to the publication of data on the national core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan.

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[Resolve]

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signal More Downsides

AUD/USD declined below the 0.6355 and 0.6330 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might trade below the 0.5800 zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6355 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6330 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.5930 resistance zone.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.5840 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6400 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6355 support against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6330 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed near 0.6295 before there was an upside correction. The pair climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6393 swing high to the 0.6295 low.

However, the bears were active near the 0.6355 resistance zone. It failed to clear the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6393 swing high to the 0.6295 low.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6330. On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6295 low. The next support sits at 0.6285. If there is a downside break below 0.6285, the pair could extend its decline.

The next support could be 0.6250. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6220 support. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the trend line at 0.6330.

The next major resistance is near 0.6355, above which the price could rise toward 0.6400. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6420. A close above the 0.6420 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6500.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.