Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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EUR/USD Hits 8-week High

The euro is trading above USD 1.09, hitting its strongest point since mid-January on Friday, helped by news from both the US and Europe.

Friday's news showed that the US labor market is weakening:
→ The change in employment in the non-farm sector showed an increase in jobs = 275k for the month, although last month it was = +353k.
→ The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, although it was 3.7% for 3 months.
News of a weakening labour market could put pressure on the Fed to ease monetary policy.

Meanwhile in Europe, the ECB kept borrowing costs at a record high, citing significant progress in containing inflation, and revised its inflation expectations downward, forecasting price growth of 2.3% in 2024, and 1.9% in 2025. And during a press conference last Thursday, ECB President Lagarde told reporters that policymakers had not discussed rate cuts at that meeting.

Thus, there is reason to believe that the Fed will start lowering rates earlier (it started raising them earlier than the ECB). And this assumption is shared by many market participants, judging by the bullish dynamics in the EUR/USD market.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The rally is over! NASDAQ leads US stock market declines

The halcyon days of US tech stock rallies with increasing values of companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange, which have taken place alongside the increasing values of other North American indices, have ended abruptly.

The past few weeks have been of great interest, with the NASDAQ index leading the charge toward a seemingly unrelenting increase in value as confidence in large companies developing AI technology, such as NVIDIA, well known for its graphics cards and now highly engrossed in AI development, as well as strong performance from specialist American firms such as Broadcom and cloud computing giant Cloudstrike Holdings which have led the rally well into March.

As well as the NASDAQ index having tailed off, other US stock indices have experienced similar decrements.

The tables turned quite significantly at the end of last week; however, when the NASDAQ index began to reduce in value, the all-time highs of last week were not replicated this week.

On Friday, the NASDAQ index was trading at 18,273.8 according to FXOpen pricing; however, as market participants anticipate the opening of the US market today, the tech-friendly index is valued at 17,975.7 at the bottom of the candlestick in the pre-market opening hours.

In keeping with the nature of US tech stocks, volatility is once again a subject of discussion across mainstream reports and among analysts, especially given that one of the contingents of the NASDAQ index that was contributing to its rally, NVIDIA, has experienced a decline in stock value by 5.5%, according to some media reports, during the course of Friday last week after a substantial rally that has seen it gain approximately 80% year to date.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Mar 11, 2024

US Dollar Ended the Week under Pressure

The February labour market report was published in the United States. The number of new jobs created by the national economy outside the agricultural sector increased by 275.0k in January after an increase of 229.0k a month earlier, while experts expected an increase of 200.0k. It should also be noted that the January figure was revised from the previous estimate of 353.0k jobs. The average hourly wage in annual terms adjusted from 4.4% to 4.3%, and in monthly terms, from 0.5% to 0.1%. At the same time, the unemployment rate in February increased sharply from 3.7% to 3.9%.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0940. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0980, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.1100. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0887, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0842.

Market activity remains subdued as investors analyse macroeconomic data released last week. On Friday, March 8, trading participants drew attention to the decline in the annual dynamics of industrial production in Germany in January by 5.5% after -3.5% in the previous month, and in monthly terms the figure strengthened by 1.0% after a reduction of 2 .0% in December against a forecast of 0.6%, which allows the German economy to emerge from recession in the near future. The German producer price index added 0.2% monthly after -0.8% in December, and slowed down by 4.4% year-on-year after -5.1%, while markets were expecting -6.6%. Trading participants also assessed statistics on the eurozone GDP product for the fourth quarter of 2023: on a quarterly basis, the figure remained at 0.0%, and on an annual basis it increased by 0.1%, which coincided with expectations.

Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair shows that a new upward channel has formed at the highs of last week. Now the price is near the lower border and may continue to rise.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis – 11th MAR, 2024

EURUSD – Bullish Trend Reversal

EURUSD was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1.0980 on 8th March we saw downwards retracement towards the lows of 1.0914 seen today in the US trading session.
We can see that the prices of Euro have now stabilized and are looking to enter into a consolidation zone after which we can see some upwards recovery.
We can see the formation of Bullish Trend reversal pattern in both the 15-minutes and weekly timeframes.
The MACD crosses UP its Moving Average in the weekly timeframe.

The prices of EURUSD are ranging near the support of the triangle in the weekly timeframe indicating the bullish nature of the markets.
In the short term we are now looking at some market consolidation after which the prices will start moving upwards with immediate targets of 1.0959 which is a 61.8% Retracement from the 52 Week Low.

EURUSD is now trading above its 100-hour SMA and 200-hour SMA simple moving averages.

• Euro bullish reversal seen above the 1.0870 mark.
• Short-term range appears to be Neutral.
• EURUSD continues to remain above the 1.0900 levels.
• Average true range ATR is indicating high market volatility.

The next resistance is located at 1.0969 which is a 38.2% Retracement From 13 Week High.
EURUSD is now trading below its Pivot levels of 1.0923 and is moving into a Consolidation channel. The price of EURUSD remains above its Classic support levels of 1.0917 and is moving towards its next target of 1.0959.

Note: This Analytics is created by me and is based on my own personal Forex trading experience of 10 years. I am using my trading experience to help Experienced and Newbie traders and they should know about the risks of Forex trading.

For in-depth analysis, please check FXOpen Blog

Post automatically merged: Mar 11, 2024

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 11th MAR, 2024

GBPUSD – Resistance of Channel is Broken

GBPUSD was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1.2883 we saw downwards retracement towards the low of 1.2795 formed today in the US trading session.
The prices of Pound are expected to enter into a consolidation zone after which we can see some upwards correction.
We can see that the Resistance of the channel is broken in the daily timeframe indicating a bullish trend present in the markets.
We have also seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can see the formation of Bullish trend as the prices of GBPUSD are ranging near horizontal support in both the 15-minutes and 1-hourly timeframes.
GBPUSD is now trading above its 100-hour SMA and its 200-hour SMA simple moving average.

• Pound bullish reversal seen above the 1.2700 mark.
• Short-term range appears to be Neutral.
• GBPUSD continues to remain above the 1.2800 levels.
• Average true range ATR is indicating high market volatility.

GBPUSD is now trading below its Pivot levels of 1.2805 and is moving into a Consolidation channel.
The price of GBPUSD is aiming to cross its Classic resistance levels of 1.2830 which is a 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 80%.

Note: This Analytics is created by me and is based on my own personal Forex trading experience of 10 years. I am using my trading experience to help Experienced and Newbie traders and they should know about the risks of Forex trading.

For in-depth analysis, please check FXOpen Blog

 

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A Weak Dollar Is the Driver of Price Records for NASDAQ-100, BTC/USD, XAU/USD

Financial market participants expect an easing of the Fed's monetary policy. The prospect of lower rates puts pressure on the value of the dollar, which in turn pushes up dollar-denominated assets. This contributed to the setting of record highs:

→ The price of BTC/USD exceeded 70k dollars per bitcoin
→ The price of XAU/USD exceeded USD 2,200 per ounce of gold
→ The NASDAQ-100 index reached 18,400 points.

But are markets too optimistic? Let's see what the technical analysis of the NASDAQ-100 chart shows today:

→ The price is in an uptrend (shown in blue), which has been in effect since the beginning of the year. The price is in the upper half, which may indicate the strength of demand.
→ Top C only slightly exceeded the level of the previous top A. It is not surprising that a bearish divergence has formed on the oscillators — Awesome Osc among them. Buyers who entered long positions at the breakout of top A found themselves in a trap. Sellers who held stops above A lost their positions.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis – 12th MAR, 2024

EURUSD – Bullish Price Crossover

EURUSD continues to move into a consolidation channel having touched a high of 1.0938 after which we can see some minor correction downwards towards a low of 1.0921 levels.
The prices of EURUSD are looking to enter into a bullish channel with the formation of Bullish price crossover pattern in both the 15-minutes and 1-hourly timeframes.
We can see the formation of Parabolic SAR indicator bullish reversal pattern in the 30-minutes timeframe.
The MACD crosses UP its Moving Average in the 15-minutes timeframe.

We have also seen the formation of Bullish Harami pattern in the daily timeframe.
In the short term we are now looking at some market consolidation after which the prices will start moving upwards with immediate targets of 1.0969 which is a 38.2% Retracement From 13 Week High.

EURUSD is now trading above its 100-hour SMA and 200-hour SMA simple moving averages.

• Euro bullish reversal seen above the 1.0915 mark.
• Short-term range appears to be Neutral.
• EURUSD continues to remain above the 1.0900 levels.
• Average true range ATR is indicating less market volatility.

The next resistance is located at 1.0969 which is a 38.2% Retracement From 13 Week High.
EURUSD is now trading below its Pivot levels of 1.0931 and is moving into a Consolidation channel. The price of EURUSD remains above its Classic support levels of 1.0928 and is moving towards its next target of 1.0969.

Note: This Analytics is created by me and is based on my own personal Forex trading experience of 10 years. I am using my trading experience to help Experienced and Newbie traders and they should know about the risks of Forex trading.

For in-depth analysis, please check FXOpen Blog

Post automatically merged: Mar 12, 2024

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 12th MAR, 2024

GBPUSD – Moving Average Bullish Crossover

GBPUSD was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1.282 we saw downwards retracement towards the low of 1.2776 formed today in the European trading session.
The prices of Pound are expected to enter into a consolidation zone after which we can see some upwards correction.
The RSI indicator is back over 50 in the 4-hourly timeframe indicating a bullish trend present in the markets.

The prices of GBPUSD are ranging near horizontal support in the 1-hourly timeframe.
We can see the formation of Moving Average bullish crossovers with MA20 and MA50 in the daily timeframe.

GBPUSD is now trading above its 100-hour SMA and below its 200-hour SMA simple moving average.

• Pound bullish reversal seen above the 1.2749 mark.
• Short-term range appears to be Neutral.
• GBPUSD continues to remain above the 1.2780 levels.
• Average true range ATR is indicating less market volatility.

GBPUSD is now trading below its Pivot levels of 1.2794 and is moving into a Consolidation channel.
The price of GBPUSD is aiming to cross its Classic resistance levels of 1.2803 after which we can see an upwards bullish pressure towards the 1.2835 levels which is a 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 80%.

Note: This Analytics is created by me and is based on my own personal Forex trading experience of 10 years. I am using my trading experience to help Experienced and Newbie traders and they should know about the risks of Forex trading.

For in-depth analysis, please check FXOpen Blog

 

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Australian Dollar Volatility Ends in Lull Ahead Of US Data

The Australian Dollar has recently been displaying signs of volatility, with its price varying considerably against the US Dollar over the past few months.

From a low point in October last year, the AUDUSD pair went on a sudden rally, which lasted until December before beginning to fall flat during the course of January. As February drew to a close, the AUDUSD pair began to rise in value again, reaching 0.66251 on March 4, according to FXOpen charts.

Over the past week, the Australian Dollar has been a bit dormant in its movements against the US Dollar; however, this morning's trading session in Australia and across the Asian market session began to demonstrate that some renewed interest is beginning to be shown in the Australian Dollar as the Australian economy begins to look a bit stronger.

This morning as the European markets begin to open, activity from the Australian market is being analysed and one matter of interest is that the Australian S&P index along with the ASX 200 which is an index featuring 200 well capitalised stocks on Australia's ASX exchange, showed improvement over previous performances which is being mooted as a potential strengthening factor for the Australian Dollar.

Today in Australia, financial services executives have held meetings to discuss the GDP within Australia for the fourth quarter of 2023, with nothing out of the ordinary having surfaced and data in line with expectation; however, there is anticipation regarding the forthcoming monetary policy announcements from the US Federal Reserve which may affect the value of the AUDUSD, and forthcoming CPI data in the United States for February looks set to meet expectations at 3.1, identical to that for January.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The US Currency Is Consolidating ahead of the Release of Inflation Data

A rather weak US employment report published last week contributed to the US dollar's decline in almost all areas. Thus, the USD/JPY pair lost more than 150 pp in just a couple of hours, the pound/US dollar pair tested important resistance at 1.2900, and euro/US dollar buyers managed to strengthen above 1.0900.

USD/JPY

The weak fundamentals from the US are bolstering investor confidence that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates later this year. And although recent statements by the head of the American regulator, Jerome Powell, can hardly be called dovish, market participants prefer short-term sales of greenbacks.

The USD/JPY currency pair fell to 146.50 at the end of last week. Yesterday, buyers of the pair managed to return the price above 147.00, but the full development of an upward correction has not yet been observed. If the pair manages to consolidate above 148.00, the price may test resistance at the alligator lines on the weekly timeframe near the range of 149.50-149.00. An update to the recent low on the USD/JPY chart could trigger a collapse to the extremes of the current year at 146.00-145.80.

Today's news on the basic US consumer price index for February will be important for the pair's pricing.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Recovers While EUR/GBP Aims More Upsides

GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.2745 zone. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and might extend its rally above the 0.8550 zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a recovery above the 1.2780 zone against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2790 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh increase above the 0.8535 resistance zone.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8535 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2890 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2820 zone against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 1.2746 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2893 swing high to the 1.2746 low.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2790, but the pair is still below the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2800.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2820 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2893 swing high to the 1.2746 low. If the RSI moves above 50 and the pair climbs above 1.2820, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.2890 level or even 1.2920.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near 1.2745. If there is a downside break below the 1.2745 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2700 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2665. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2550 support.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Today Is an Ethereum Update. ETH/USD Is Above $4,000

An update is scheduled for the Ethereum network today, approximately at 16:55 GMT+3.

The update is called Dencun and is the biggest code change since April 2023, when the Shapella update was implemented.

Dencun aims to reduce fees on the growing array of ancillary networks running on top of Ethereum, called layer 2 (L2) “aggregates.” The changes involve “proto-dunksharding” technology, which is intended to improve the blockchain’s ability to process data from L2 networks.

It is believed that the implementation of the update will give impetus to the development of projects built on auxiliary networks. On the other hand, there is a risk of failures. Although it is worth noting that Dencun was deployed three times on test networks, and each time there were no problems.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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GBP/USD: Bulls Show Resilience amid Inflation and GDP News

Yesterday important data on inflation in the United States was published. It caused a significant spike in volatility in financial markets, even though the values were in line with expectations. CPI in monthly terms: actual = 0.4%, forecast = 0.4%, a month ago = 0.3%, a year ago = 0.4%.

And today news came out about UK GDP in monthly terms, which also corresponded to expectations: fact = +0.2%, forecast = +0.2%, a month ago = -0.1%.

It is noteworthy that in both cases the first reaction was a fall in the price of GBP/USD, but then a recovery followed — this is a manifestation of the stability of demand.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis – 13th MAR, 2024

EURUSD – Resistance of Channel is Broken

EURUSD continued its bullish momentum today after the consolidation phase and managed to touch a high of 1.0963 in the US trading session after which we can see some consolidation coming into the markets.
We are now looking to re-enter the bullish zone after the current wave of consolidation gets over and touch the 1-months high of 1.0980 soon.
We can see that the resistance of the channel is broken in the 1-hourly timeframe indicating a bullish tone present in the markets.

The Aroon indicator is giving a bullish trend signal in the 4-hourly timeframe.
Some of the technical indicators are also giving a neutral tone indicating the presence of the consolidation wave at present in the markets.
In the short term we are now looking at some market consolidation after which the prices will start moving upwards with immediate targets of 1.0980 which is a 1-months high.

EURUSD is now trading above its 100-hour SMA and 200-hour SMA simple moving averages.

• Euro bullish reversal seen above the 1.0920 mark.
• Short-term range appears to be Neutral.
• EURUSD continues to remain above the 1.0950 levels.
• Average true range ATR is indicating high market volatility.

The next resistance is located at 1.0975 which is a Price 3 Standard Deviations Resistance.
EURUSD is now trading below its Pivot levels of 1.0957 and is moving into a Consolidation channel. The price of EURUSD remains above its Classic support levels of 1.0942 and is moving towards its next target of 1.0980.

Note: This Analytics is created by me and is based on my own personal Forex trading experience of 10 years. I am using my trading experience to help Experienced and Newbie traders and they should know about the risks of Forex trading.

For in-depth analysis, please check FXOpen Blog

Post automatically merged: Mar 13, 2024

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 13th MAR, 2024

GBPUSD – Bullish Trend Reversal

GBPUSD was indecisive today moving in a zigzag pattern after which we can see some fresh bullish confirmations coming into the markets.
The prices of Pound are expected to enter into a consolidation zone after which we can see some upwards correction towards the 1.2838 levels.
We can see the formation of Bullish Trend Reversal pattern with Moving Average MA50 in the 1-hourly timeframe.

We have also detected the formation of Ichimoku - Bullish crossover: Tenkan & Kijun pattern in the 1-hourly timeframe which is a bullish pattern.
The RSI indicator is back over 50 in the 2-hourly timeframe indicating a Bullish tone present in the markets.

GBPUSD is now trading below its 100-hour SMA and above its 200-hour SMA simple moving average.

• Pound bullish reversal seen above the 1.2775 mark.
• Short-term range appears to be Neutral.
• GBPUSD continues to remain above the 1.2800 levels.
• Average true range ATR is indicating high market volatility.

GBPUSD is now trading below its Pivot levels of 1.2805 and is moving into a Consolidation channel.
The price of GBPUSD is aiming to cross its Classic resistance levels of 1.2813 after which we can see an upwards bullish pressure towards the 1.2851 levels which is a 3-10 Day MACD Oscillator Stalls.

Note: This Analytics is created by me and is based on my own personal Forex trading experience of 10 years. I am using my trading experience to help Experienced and Newbie traders and they should know about the risks of Forex trading.

For in-depth analysis, please check FXOpen Blog

 

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Major Currency Pairs Consolidating after the Release of US Inflation Data

The publication of data on the basic consumer price index in the United States contributed to sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Thus, the EUR/USD currency pair retested the important level of 1.0900, buyers of the GBP/USD pair did not hold 1.2800 as support, and the USD/JPY pair was sandwiched between 148.00 and 147.00. At the same time, commodity currencies reacted more calmly to US inflation data and continue to trade in rather narrow flat corridors.

GBP/USD

Weak data on industrial production in the UK for January and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.9% against the forecast of 3.8% did not allow buyers of the pound/dollar pair to develop a full-fledged upward trend. If on the GBP/USD chart the range of 1.2820-1.2800 retains its support status, the price may continue to rise in the direction of 1.3100-1.3000. Cancellation of the upward scenario can be considered when moving below the alligator lines on higher time frames.

From the point of view of fundamental analysis, today at 15:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the publication of data on the producer price index (PPI) in the US for February. Also at the same time, the core retail sales index for the same period will be published.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Mar 14, 2024

USD/JPY: Analysts Adjust Forecasts for the Strengthening of the Yen

Since the beginning of 2024, the USD/JPY price has been in an uptrend (as shown by the blue channel), but when the rate exceeded the psychological level of 150 yen per US dollar, market sentiment changed. This was due to expectations that the Bank of Japan would take interest rates out of negative territory — and statements from officials gave clear indications of this possibility.

Expecting a tightening of monetary policy, the yen sharply strengthened against the dollar, and a bearish A→B impulse formed on the USD/JPY chart. However, having reached the level of 147 yen per US dollar (and dropped slightly below it), the market has stabilized. Moreover, we see some recovery: today, the USD/JPY price is trading around 147.8.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Mar 14, 2024

US500: The Market Has Been Growing without Corrections by 2% for 266 Consecutive Trading Sessions

The S&P 500 remains in its longest rally since 2018 without a decline of at least 2%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg; analysts note that there hasn't been a correction of this size in 266 trading sessions.

The positive sentiment of market participants is due to:
→ the prospect of lowering interest rates by the Federal Reserve;
→ enthusiasm for AI and its positive impact on economic development.

However, although the fundamental background is strong, current estimates of the US500 index may be overestimated — in fact, this is the essence of the correction.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: Gold Price Rally Takes Break, Crude Oil Price Surges

Gold price rallied above $2,180 before correcting lower. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $82 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price failed to clear the $2,200 resistance and corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $2,170 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $80.00 resistance zone.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $80.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price was able to climb above the $2,150 resistance, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The price even broke the $2,180 level before the bears appeared.

The price traded close to the $2,200 zone before there was a downside correction. There was a move below the $2,180 pivot zone. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average and RSI dipped below 50. Finally, it tested the $2,150 zone.

The price is now consolidating losses near the $2,160 level. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $2,166 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,179 swing high to the $2,152 low.

The next major resistance is near a key bearish trend line at $2,170. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,179 swing high to the $2,152 low.

An upside break above the $2,170 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,180. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,200 level. If there is no recovery wave, the price could continue to move down.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,164 level. The first major support is $2,150. If there is a downside break below the $2,150 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,132 support.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD Strengthens Sharply after Inflation News

Yesterday's publication of producer price indices in the US was a surprise:
→ Core PPI: actual = 0.3%, expected = 0.2%.
→ PPI: actual = 0.6%, expected = 0.3%.

Higher producer prices indicate that high inflation may remain longer than expected. And this reduces the likelihood of the Fed easing monetary policy. Markets now price the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June at 60%, up from 74% a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

The reaction to the news was that the dollar strengthened — there was a bearish day on the stock market, and currencies paired with the USD also fell in price.

Thus, the EUR/USD price decrease yesterday was about 0.55% per day.

On March 11, we wrote that the price of EUR/USD may fall to the lower border of the channel (shown in blue) from the 8-week peak (B). In fact, the price made a bearish breakout of this channel.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Post automatically merged: Mar 15, 2024

WTI Oil Price Reaches 4-month High

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again raised its forecasts for global oil demand in 2024. While the agency's forecast pointed to the prospect of an oil surplus in 2023, its analysts now believe that the world will experience a shortage of oil in the second half of 2024.

Among the reasons for the shortage:
→ limitation of oil production by OPEC+ countries, it is 2 million barrels per day until the middle of the year. And it may be extended, as Bloomberg writes — the decision is scheduled for June 1;
→ changes in logistics routes due to Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea.

Also, a bullish impulse for the price of WTI oil can be provided by the geopolitical situation, which remains tense.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Watch FXOpen's 11 - 15 March Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: US500, USD, US Inflation, USD/JPY

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• US500: The Market Has Been Growing without Corrections by 2% for 266 Consecutive Trading Sessions #US500
• A Weak Dollar Is the Driver of Price Records for NASDAQ-100, BTC/USD, XAU/USD #Dollar #USD #NASDAQ100 #BTCUSD #XAUUSD
• Major Currency Pairs Consolidating after the Release of US Inflation Data #USInflation #Inflation
• USD/JPY: Analysts Adjust Forecasts for the Strengthening of the Yen #USDJPY

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

 

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BTC/USD Analysis: Bears Have Become More Active Near the $70,000 Level

On February 26 (A), a strong bullish impulse started in the Bitcoin market. Its trajectory is visually described by a blue line. The price of bitcoins developed along it — this can be interpreted in such a way that market participants agreed that the value of the cryptocurrency was increasing.

If the price of Bitcoin deviated from the blue line, it was only for a short period of time. For example, to pierce the psychological level of USD 60,000 on March 5th.

However, the bullish momentum changed on March 15th, and this can be seen on the BTC/USD chart today:
→ the blue line began to work as resistance (shown by the first arrow);
→ the level of USD 70,000 also began to act as resistance (shown by the second arrow).

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Tesla Stock Hits a Low Point as Musk Sues Openai - Is This Year a Total Write-Off?

Occasionally during the course of industrial progress, there is a maverick; a voice that is known for continual disruption and maintaining a high-profile position whilst engaging in such disruption.

The figure of this decade is Elon Musk, a self-starter whose bluster and direct prose cast him as one of the world's most outspoken individuals, as well as a business magnate who manages to influence the financial markets at the click of a button.

From generating unprecedented waves in the cryptocurrency markets in 2021 to causing the motor industry to break with its 130-year-old tradition of using internal combustion as a main method of motive power, Elon Musk's market-making abilities are in line with his disruptive commentary and social media activity.

This set of characteristics has led to volatile stock in the most famous company, Tesla, founded and led by Elon Musk. With regard to such volatility, the start of this week is no exception.

Tesla stock is currently nosediving and has reached a low point of $162.20 by March 14. At the close of the US trading session on Friday, March 15, Tesla stock had retrieved some of the losses and rested at the mid-$163 range, however, this represents a mere slowing down of the plunging of Tesla stock prices because ever since the beginning of this month, Tesla stock has been depreciating at a considerable rate.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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US Dollar Shows Record Weekly Gain Since Mid-January

The US dollar strengthened on Friday ahead of a series of highly anticipated central bank meetings next week, including the US Federal Reserve. The dollar rose 1.3% for the week, its biggest gain since mid-January, after a mixed batch of data showed the U.S. economy remained resilient. That suggests the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates high for longer or reduce its planned number of rate cuts this year. Data on Friday showed a strong US manufacturing sector, with output rebounding 0.8% last month after a downwardly revised 1.1% decline in the previous month. The University of Michigan's preliminary overall consumer sentiment index for the month was 76.5, down from a final reading of 76.9 in February. The Fed's measure of annual inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% in March. The five-year inflation forecast also remained stable at 2.9% for the fourth month in a row, according to the survey. The US Federal Reserve meeting will take place on Wednesday and analysts do not expect officials to make changes to monetary policy, but expect to receive forecasts for borrowing costs for the current year. The market continues to price in at least three 25 basis point interest rate cuts before the end of 2024, the first of which could come in June.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0885. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0899, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.0963. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0872, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0840.

Market activity remains subdued at the beginning of the week as traders are in no hurry to open positions in anticipation of the emergence of new drivers. Today the eurozone will publish February inflation statistics. The forecasts do not assume any changes in the consumer price index compared to previous data. On Thursday, March 21, trading participants will evaluate March data on business activity in the eurozone, as well as the ECB's monthly economic report, which may clarify the prospects for the regulator's monetary policy for the current year. Forecasts for business activity indices suggest an increase in the indicator from 46.5 points to 47.0 points in the manufacturing sector and from 50.2 points to 50.5 points in the services sector.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD shows that a new downward channel has formed based on last week’s lows. Now the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to decline.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Bank of Japan Ends the Era of Negative Interest Rates

The Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates for 17 years. For 8 years, it was in the negative zone.

But today there was a dramatic shift in monetary policy — the Bank of Japan announced a decision to increase the interest rate from -0.1% to 0.1%.

The central bank also abandoned yield curve control (YCC), a policy that had been in place since 2016 and capped long-term interest rates near zero.

Considering the scale of the decisions taken, the reaction of the yen exchange rate relative to other currencies turned out to be moderate. This is because the plans of the Bank of Japan have been discussed for a long time, including in official sources of information. Therefore, it is acceptable to assume that participants in the currency markets have already laid down the probability of today's event.

In fact, the yen has weakened as a result, but this may only be an initial reaction in which markets are reassessing the impact of the Bank of Japan's decision over a range of short-term to long-term horizons.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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BTC/USD Analysis: Bearish Arguments Become More Convincing

On March 18, we wrote about the activation of bears near the USD 70,000 level and the likelihood of consolidation forming near this psychological mark.

On March 25, we wrote that anxiety remains in the Bitcoin market.

Technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart with new data on the behavior of Bitcoin prices today relative to the previously designated levels and lines shows that bearish arguments are becoming more convincing:

→ the median line of the ascending channel acted as resistance (shown by the first arrow);
→ the price has formed a consolidation zone (shown in green) with a subsequent bearish exit from it;

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.