Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Analytical Predictions on UK Interest Rates in 2025–2026

The future of UK interest rates is a pivotal topic for traders, investors, and policymakers alike. With inflation easing but economic uncertainties lingering, the Bank of England faces critical decisions that will shape the financial landscape through 2029. This article explores current interest rates in the UK in 2024, expert forecasts for the coming years, and key factors influencing rate movements, offering valuable insights into what lies ahead for the UK economy and financial markets.

UK Interest Rate Environment

The UK's interest rate landscape has undergone significant transformations over the past few years. From the end of 2021 to the middle of 2023, the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates from the historic low of 0.1% to 5.25%—the highest in UK interest rates history since 2008. The decision to elevate interest rates from near-zero levels was primarily driven by the need to counteract rising inflation, which has emerged as a considerable threat to the UK's economic stability.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Nikkei 225 Struggles to Hold Above the Psychological Level

The Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) has risen nearly 20% in 2024, marking its best performance since 1989, according to Trading Economics. This impressive gain is especially noteworthy considering the market plunge in early August, triggered partly by the Bank of Japan’s historic interest rate hike.

According to today's chart of the Japanese stock market index Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen):

→ Late last week (marked with an arrow), the index surpassed the psychological 40,000 level, reaching a 5-month high.
→ However, as this week began, the Nikkei 225 dropped below 40,000, failing to sustain its position above this key level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Dollar Index Rises by 6.7% in 2024

Throughout 2024, the US dollar traded with mixed dynamics but showed consistent strengthening over the past three months.

According to WSJ and Reuters, the following factors contributed to this growth:
→ Reports of a strong US economy and expectations that further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will be limited.
→ Projections of policies under President-elect Donald Trump, which are anticipated to focus on tax reductions, increased tariffs, and stricter immigration controls.

During the low-volatility holiday trading period, the US Dollar Index—a tool measuring the dollar's strength against a basket of major currencies—hovered around a two-year high, where it may close a strong year.

Meanwhile, the euro remains near two-year lows, but bulls hold onto hope.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?

The January effect has long fascinated traders, highlighting a seasonal pattern where stock prices, especially smaller ones, tend to rise at the start of the year. But what drives this phenomenon, and how do traders respond? This article dives into the factors behind the January effect, its historical performance, and its relevance in today’s markets.

What Is the January Effect?

The January effect is a term used to describe a seasonal pattern where stock prices, particularly those of smaller companies, tend to rise during January. This phenomenon was first identified in the mid-20th century by Sidney B. Wachtel and has been widely discussed by traders and analysts ever since as one of the best months to buy stocks.

The effect is most noticeable in small-cap stocks, as these tend to show stronger gains compared to larger, more established companies. Historically, this uptick in January has been observed across various stock markets, though its consistency has diminished in recent years.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD Started 2025 at Its Lowest Point in 25 Months

According to the EUR/USD chart, on 2nd January, the first trading day of the year, the EUR/USD pair fell below the psychological level of 1.025, the lowest mark since November 2022.

There are few news events, and the EUR/USD rate decline may be attributed to:
→ The holiday period still affecting financial markets, reducing liquidity and creating vulnerabilities for volatility spikes;
→ Market participants potentially rebalancing their portfolios for the new calendar year;
→ Reassessing the strength of the dollar amid uncertainty about the actual steps of President-elect Trump, whose inauguration is scheduled for this month.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD Hits Last Year’s Lows, GBP/USD Drops Below 1.2400

This week, European and commodity currencies suffer. Euro sellers broke last year’s low of 1.0330 and stayed below 1.0300, the GBP/USD pair dropped below 1.2400, and USD/CAD buyers tested the 1.4400 level.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD buyers failed to capitalise on the potential bullish correction signalled by the "Inverted Hammer" pattern. After a false breakout above 1.0450, the price sharply declined below the 2024 low at 1.0330. Yesterday, EUR/USD nearly reached the critical support level at 1.0220 but rebounded by the evening to 1.0270.

In the upcoming trading sessions, the pair might continue its correction toward recent highs at 1.0300–1.0330. If yesterday’s low at 1.0225 is breached, further downward movement to the 1.0100–1.0170 range might happen.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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How Can You Implement the Opening Range Breakout Strategy Into Trading?

The Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy is a popular approach among traders looking to take advantage of market volatility and potential breakouts during the initial minutes after the market opens. This article explores the ORB strategy in detail, including its application in stocks and forex, entry techniques, and how to optimise its use.

Overview of the Opening Range Breakout Trading Strategy

The ORB, or the Opening Range Breakout is a time-tested trading strategy that centres around identifying the price range established in the initial minutes of a market session. Originally devised in the 1960s by renowned trader Arthur Merrill, this strategy has retained its relevance across decades. Modern traders have adapted ORB to fit today’s fast-paced trading environments, using it to detect potential breakout opportunities early in the session.

The strategy typically focuses on the price range formed within the first 5, 15, or 30 minutes after the market opens. Traders mark the highest and lowest points reached during this period as key levels. While some rely solely on this range, others also incorporate the prior day’s closing price for additional context.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Tumbles, USD/JPY Eyes More Gains

EUR/USD declined from the 1.0450 resistance and traded below 1.0300. USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above the 158.00 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0350 support zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0320 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 156.50 and 157.30 levels.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 157.75 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0450 resistance zone. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.0350 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair declined below 1.0300 and tested the 1.0225 zone. A low was formed near 1.0224 and the pair recently attempted a recovery wave. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.0280 level. The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0458 swing high to the 1.0224 low.

The pair is now trading above 1.0285 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 1.0320 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0320.

The next key resistance is at 1.0340. The main resistance is near the 1.0365 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0458 swing high to the 1.0224 low.

A clear move above the 1.0365 level could send the pair toward the 1.0460 resistance. An upside break above 1.0460 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0500.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0280. The next key support is at 1.0225. If there is a downside break below 1.0225, the pair could drop toward 1.0200. The next support is near 1.0150, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Nvidia Stock (NVDA): A Strong Start to 2025

As shown by Nvidia's (NVDA) chart:
→ In 2024, the stock price rose by approximately 180%—one of the best performances among S&P 500 constituents. Notably, NVDA contributed the largest share—around $1.23 trillion—to the growth of the US stock market capitalisation.

→ 2025 began on an optimistic note: on 3rd January, the candle opened with a bullish gap, and the price climbed confidently during the trading session, closing near the highs. This signals strong demand after the holiday period.

Today, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES). Insights from his speech could potentially provide an additional bullish catalyst.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Brent Crude Oil Hits 2.5-Month High in Early 2025

The XBR/USD chart shows a strong rally in Brent crude oil prices on January 2–3, breaking above $76.20 for the first time since mid-October.

According to Reuters, this surge was driven by:

Economic stimulus measures in China, including wage increases for public servants and a significant boost in funding through treasury bonds.
Forecasts of a colder winter in the US and Europe, potentially increasing demand for oil products.

According to technical analysis of the XBR/USD chart, the price broke out of a consolidation pattern (highlighted in blue) that had confined it in late 2024.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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How Can You Trade Energy Commodities?

Energy trading connects global markets to the vital resources that power economies—oil and natural gas. These commodities aren’t just essential for industries and homes; they’re also dynamic assets for traders, influenced by geopolitics, supply, and demand.

Whether you’re exploring benchmarks like Brent Crude and WTI or understanding natural gas markets, this article unpacks the essentials of energy commodities and how to trade them.

What Is Energy Trading?

Energy trading involves buying and selling energy resources that power industries and households worldwide. These commodities are essential for modern life and are traded in global markets both as physical products and financial instruments.

Energy commodities include resources like oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, ethanol, uranium, and more. In this article, we’ll focus on the two that traders interact with the most: oil and natural gas.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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GBP/USD Recovers as EUR/GBP Starts Consolidation

GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.2500 resistance. EUR/GBP is consolidating and might aim for a fresh increase above 0.8320.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2420.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2455 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8330 pivot level.
• There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.8305 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair declined after it failed to clear the 1.2600 resistance. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound even traded below the 1.2500 support against the US Dollar.

Finally, the pair tested the 1.2350 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2450. The pair even climbed above the 1.2500 level.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2455. The pair climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2607 swing high to the 1.2352 low.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Trading Strategies for Different Liquidity Conditions

Navigating the financial markets requires a keen understanding of liquidity conditions and their impact on trading strategies. From the bustling activity of high-liquidity markets to the more unpredictable nature of low-liquidity environments, each presents unique challenges and opportunities. This article explores three trading strategies tailored to different liquidity scenarios.

What Are Liquidity Conditions?

Liquidity conditions in financial markets refer to the ease with which assets can be bought or sold at stable prices. Essentially, it's about how quickly and efficiently a market can match buyers and sellers. High liquidity is characterised by a high volume of trading activity, where transactions can be executed swiftly without significantly impacting the asset's price. High liquidity conditions examples include major forex pairs like EUR/USD, which typically have plenty of buyers and sellers at any given price level.

Conversely, low liquidity markets might involve less frequently traded assets, like certain small-cap stocks, where finding a buyer or seller takes longer, potentially leading to more significant price fluctuations for each trade.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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The Share Price of Moderna (MRNA) Surged Over 10% in a Day

As shown by the chart of pharmaceutical company Moderna (MRNA):
→ 2024 was an extremely difficult year, with the price falling by approximately 60%;
→ however, in early 2025, we can see signs of renewed strength.

During yesterday’s session, Moderna’s (MRNA) share price rose by more than 10%, following news of the first death in the US from H5N1 bird flu. According to Barron’s, Moderna is one of the few pharmaceutical companies currently developing a vaccine for H5N1 bird flu, which is spreading rapidly across North America.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Eurostoxx 50 Index Rises Above 5000

As indicated by the chart of the Eurostoxx 50 index (Europe 50 on FXOpen), its value climbed above the psychological level of 5000 points in early 2025.

The strength of demand may be driven by portfolio rebalancing or long-term investor expectations, as today’s news for the European stock market was negative. According to ForexFactory:
→ industrial orders in Germany dropped by 5.1% month-on-month (expected: -0.3%);
→ retail sales in Germany fell by 0.6% month-on-month (expected: +0.5%);
→ France reported a worsening government budget balance.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.