USD Index Rebounds from 8-Week Low, Impacting EUR/USD Pair
The USD Index (DXY), measuring the US dollar against various currencies, rebounded from an eight-week low, impacting the EUR/USD pair. This was influenced by mixed signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials regarding future rate hikes, leading to higher US Treasury bond yields and prompting some short-covering in the USD.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook suggested that the current interest rate is sufficient to achieve the Fed's 2% inflation target but stressed the importance of remaining vigilant. In contrast, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari leaned towards a more cautious approach, suggesting he'd prefer overtightening to ensure inflation returns to the target.
This divergence in views adds uncertainty to the Fed's next policy moves. Investors increasingly believe that the Fed is approaching the end of its rate-hiking cycle, particularly after softer US jobs data last Friday. Market pricing even suggests a possibility of rate cuts in June 2024. Consequently, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming appearances for further insights into the central bank's stance.
EUR/USD retraced after reaching the 1.0750 level, which was a correction following a significant bullish movement on Friday. The 1.0700 level may act as support before seeing a potential uptrend. The market is currently experiencing uncertainty as it awaits speeches from members of both the Fed and ECB. The 1.0800 level remains a major resistance target.
Resistance 3 | Resistance 2 | Resistance 1 | Support 1 | Support 2 | Support 3 |
1.1040 | 1.0930 | 1.0800 | 1.0700 | 1.0630 | 1.0550 |
GBP Faces Selling Pressure Following Concerns of UK Economic Slowdown and Rising Cost
The British Pound (GBP) is encountering selling pressure attributed to concerns surrounding a UK economic slowdown driven by the Bank of England's (BoE) tightening monetary policy. The GBP/USD pair, previously on an uptrend, now hovers around 1.2330 without robust support for the Pound.
The recent resurgence in the GBP/USD pair was fueled by improved market sentiment, stemming from expectations of a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and reduced tensions in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the UK economy faces the risk of recession, with sectors like manufacturing, services, and housing struggling to adapt to higher BoE interest rates. The already weak consumer spending is poised to worsen due to escalating living costs.
A survey conducted by Accenture and YouGov revealed that a significant portion of UK adults, approximately two-thirds, are disinterested in partaking in Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or Boxing Day discounts due to the ongoing cost of living crisis. According to S&P Global's report, all sectors, including manufacturing, services, and construction, continue to languish below the 50.0 threshold, indicating ongoing economic challenges.
On the 1D chart, GBPUSD is in a corrective phase after touching the 200MA. The first support is at 1.2300 followed by 1.2260. A breakout of the 200MA would take the price to the next target of 1.2600.
Resistance 3 | Resistance 2 | Resistance 1 | Support 1 | Support 2 | Support 3 |
1.2600 | 1.2550 | 1.2450 | 1.2300 | 1.2260 | 1.2200 |
USD/JPY Traders Await Fed Official Speeches
Traders adjust their positions in anticipation of speeches by key Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. There is growing speculation that the Fed may soon conclude its rate hike cycle and even consider rate cuts in June 2024, following a weaker-than-expected US jobs report.
The comments from Fed officials have been mixed, with Fed Governor Lisa Cook expressing confidence in the current interest rate's ability to achieve the Fed's 2% inflation target. In contrast, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari advocates a more cautious approach to expedite reaching the inflation target, leading to a rebound in US Treasury bond yields and supporting the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish stance and minor adjustments to its yield curve control policy. However, the potential for further USD/JPY gains is limited due to concerns about potential Japanese intervention in the forex market to prevent prolonged Yen depreciation. Traders should closely monitor Fed officials' remarks for potential market-moving events in the absence of significant US economic releases.
The USDJPY has gained some ground, recovering from the losses it incurred on Friday. Technically, the pair appears uncertain in terms of direction but there is a possibility of reversal if the BoJ intervenes. The market doesn't seem to believe that the pair will continue to advance, so a more cautious approach is being taken.
Resistance 3 | Resistance 2 | Resistance 1 | Support 1 | Support 2 | Support 3 |
153.50 | 152.00 | 150.00 | 149.3 | 148.00 | 146.50 |
Gold Prices Face Selling Pressure Due to Dollar Recovery and Geopolitical Factors
The gold price (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure, reaching a two-week low below the $1,970 level. The continued recovery of the US Dollar (USD) from its lowest level since September 20 is contributing to the downtrend. In addition, the lack of major developments in the conflict between Israeland Hamas is driving flows away from the safe-haven metal. However, the risk of a wider crisis in the Middle East and economic uncertainties in China and Europe are holding investors back and giving gold some support. Furthermore, the decline in US Treasury bond yields, fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain the status quo in December, should limit losses for the non-yielding asset. The upcoming release of US Trade Balance data and speeches by influential FOMC members, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearances, will provide further insights into the Fed's rate-hike path and influence the near-term dynamics of the USD. Geopolitics and overall market sentiment will also play a role in determining gold's direction.
Gold is coming back as a result of the yields and dollar advances. The next support level is at 1960, followed by 1947.
Resistance 3 | Resistance 2 | Resistance 1 | Support 1 | Support 2 | Support 3 |
2040 | 2020 | 2006 | 1980 | 1947 | 1920 |
WTI Crude Oil Retreats on Weak Chinese Economic Data Despite Production Cuts
During Asian trading hours, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil trades lower around $79.80 per barrel. The retracement is driven by downbeat economic data from China, offsetting the positive impact of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. China's Trade Balance data for October showed a reduced surplus balance of $56.53 billion, with exports declining by 6.4%. UBS analysts suggest the production cuts may extend into Q1 2024 due to seasonally weaker oil demand. Global manufacturing PMIs indicate a slowing economic growth, which could limit oil prices as demand decreases. Concerns about a warmer-than-expected winter in the northern hemisphere also weigh on crude oil prices. The US Dollar's recovery, driven by improved bond yields, dampens the value of crude oil. Traders expect the US Federal Reserve to pause its monetary policy tightening, with potential rate cuts by the end of 2024. The focus will be on China's Consumer Price Index for October.
WTI is expected to break down to $78, a confluence point.
Resistance 3 | Resistance 2 | Resistance 1 | Support 1 | Support 2 | Support 3 |
94 | 90 | 84 | 80 | 78 | 74 |