News Announcement & Chart Analysis by PlexyTrade
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5th December 2024
Thursday
Thursday
The United States is set to release its weekly Unemployment Claims report on Thursday, offering crucial insights into the labor market's current health. This report will shed light on the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, serving as a key indicator of economic stability and workforce trends.
USD - Unemployment Claims
Unemployment Claims track the number of first-time filings for unemployment insurance in the past week. A lower-than-expected figure is positive for the currency, reflecting stronger labor market conditions. Although a lagging indicator, it provides vital insights into economic health and influences monetary policy decisions.
In the week ending November 23, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 213,000, while the previous week’s claims were revised upward by 2,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average of initial claims dropped by 1,250 to 217,000, following an upward revision of the previous average from 217,750 to 218,250. For the week ending November 16, the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.3%. However, the number of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment claims increased by 9,000 to 1,907,000—the highest level since November 2021. The previous week’s insured unemployment figure was revised down by 10,000 to 1,898,000. Additionally, the 4-week moving average for insured unemployment climbed by 13,500 to 1,890,250, also reaching its highest level since November 2021, after the prior week’s average was revised down by 2,500 to 1,876,750.
In the week ending November 23, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 213,000, while the previous week’s claims were revised upward by 2,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average of initial claims dropped by 1,250 to 217,000, following an upward revision of the previous average from 217,750 to 218,250. For the week ending November 16, the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.3%. However, the number of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment claims increased by 9,000 to 1,907,000—the highest level since November 2021. The previous week’s insured unemployment figure was revised down by 10,000 to 1,898,000. Additionally, the 4-week moving average for insured unemployment climbed by 13,500 to 1,890,250, also reaching its highest level since November 2021, after the prior week’s average was revised down by 2,500 to 1,876,750.
TL;DR
| Metric | Current Value | Change | Revised Previous Value | Highest Since |
|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims | 213,000 | Decreased by 2,000 | 215,000 | - |
| 4-Week Moving Avg. (Initial Claims) | 217,000 | Decreased by 1,250 | 218,250 | - |
| Insured Unemployment Rate | 1.3% | Unchanged | - | - |
| Insured Unemployment Claims | 1,907,000 | Increased by 9,000 | 1,898,000 | November 2021 |
| 4-Week Moving Avg. (Insured Claims) | 1,890,250 | Increased by 13,500 | 1,876,750 | November 2021 |
The upcoming Unemployment Claims report is forecasted to show 215,000 initial claims, reflecting a slight increase compared to the previous week's outcome of 213,000.
The next upcoming Unemployment Claims is set to be released on Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.
6th December 2024
Friday
Friday
This Friday, significant labor market data will be released from both Canada and the US. Canada is set to announce its Employment Change, highlighting job gains or losses, along with its latest Unemployment Rate. Meanwhile, the US will publish key indicators including Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, and its Unemployment Rate, providing a comprehensive view of wage growth, job creation, and overall employment conditions. These updates are likely to influence market sentiment and policy expectations.
CAD - Employment Change
Employment Change Measures track the monthly variation in employment numbers. A higher-than-forecast 'Actual' figure is typically positive for the currency, as it indicates stronger job creation. Traders closely monitor this data because job growth is a crucial predictor of consumer spending, which significantly influences overall economic activity.
Canada's employment rose by 14,500 in October 2024, marking a slowdown from the 46,700 jobs added in September and falling short of the 25,000 jobs forecasted. Full-time employment grew by 25,600 positions, offsetting a decline of 11,200 part-time roles. Job gains were recorded in sectors such as business, building, and other support services (+28,700; +4.2%), educational services (+11,600; +0.8%), accommodation and food services (+12,200; +1.1%), and manufacturing (+9,700; +0.5%). However, losses were noted in finance, insurance, and real estate (-13,000; -0.9%), wholesale and retail trade (-8,300; -0.3%), and transportation and warehousing (-9,300; -0.9%). Regionally, Alberta (+13,000; +0.5%) and New Brunswick (+3,300; +0.8%) saw employment growth, while Prince Edward Island experienced a decline (-1,100; -1.2%).
Canada's employment rose by 14,500 in October 2024, marking a slowdown from the 46,700 jobs added in September and falling short of the 25,000 jobs forecasted. Full-time employment grew by 25,600 positions, offsetting a decline of 11,200 part-time roles. Job gains were recorded in sectors such as business, building, and other support services (+28,700; +4.2%), educational services (+11,600; +0.8%), accommodation and food services (+12,200; +1.1%), and manufacturing (+9,700; +0.5%). However, losses were noted in finance, insurance, and real estate (-13,000; -0.9%), wholesale and retail trade (-8,300; -0.3%), and transportation and warehousing (-9,300; -0.9%). Regionally, Alberta (+13,000; +0.5%) and New Brunswick (+3,300; +0.8%) saw employment growth, while Prince Edward Island experienced a decline (-1,100; -1.2%).
TL;DR
- Total Employment:
- Increased by 14,500 in October, slower than September's 46,700 gain and below the forecast of 25,000.
- Full-Time vs. Part-Time:
- Full-time employment rose by 25,600 positions.
- Part-time employment declined by 11,200 roles.
- Sector Gains:
- Business/Support Services: +28,700 (+4.2%).
- Educational Services: +11,600 (+0.8%).
- Accommodation/Food Services: +12,200 (+1.1%).
- Manufacturing: +9,700 (+0.5%).
- Sector Losses:
- Finance/Insurance/Real Estate: -13,000 (-0.9%).
- Wholesale/Retail Trade: -8,300 (-0.3%).
- Transportation/Warehousing: -9,300 (-0.9%).
- Regional Highlights:
- Alberta: +13,000 (+0.5%).
- New Brunswick: +3,300 (+0.8%).
- Prince Edward Island: -1,100 (-1.2%).
CAD - Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate Measures represent the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking work from the previous month. A lower-than-forecast 'Actual' figure is generally favorable for the currency. Traders monitor this metric closely because, despite being a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate provides valuable insights into overall economic health, given that consumer spending is closely linked to labor market conditions.
Canada's unemployment rate remained steady at 6.5% in October 2024, defying expectations of a rise to 6.6% and easing concerns about the labor market's recent downturn. While the unemployed population increased slightly by 900 to 1,429,000, net employment grew by 14,500 to 20,596,900, though it fell short of the anticipated 25,000 gain. A significant drop in youth joblessness (-20,800 to 403,400) offset a rise in unemployment among the core-aged population (up 21,300 to 803,900), with little change among older workers. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate slipped to 64.8%, the lowest since January 2021.
Canada's unemployment rate remained steady at 6.5% in October 2024, defying expectations of a rise to 6.6% and easing concerns about the labor market's recent downturn. While the unemployed population increased slightly by 900 to 1,429,000, net employment grew by 14,500 to 20,596,900, though it fell short of the anticipated 25,000 gain. A significant drop in youth joblessness (-20,800 to 403,400) offset a rise in unemployment among the core-aged population (up 21,300 to 803,900), with little change among older workers. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate slipped to 64.8%, the lowest since January 2021.
TL;DR
- Unemployment Rate:
- Remained steady at 6.5% in October 2024, defying expectations of a rise to 6.6%.
- Unemployed Population:
- Increased slightly by 900 to 1,429,000.
- Net Employment:
- Grew by 14,500 to 20,596,900 but fell short of the forecasted 25,000 gain.
- Youth Unemployment:
- Dropped by 20,800 to 403,400.
- Core-Aged Unemployment:
- Increased by 21,300 to 803,900.
- Older Workers:
- Little change observed in unemployment numbers.
- Labor Force Participation Rate:
- Declined to 64.8%, the lowest since January 2021.
The forecast predicted an increase to 6.6%, compared to the actual outcome of 6.5%.
The next Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be announced on Friday at 1:30 PM GMT.
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
The Average Hourly Earnings m/m indicator measures the change in wages that businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming sector. If the 'Actual' figure exceeds the 'Forecast,' it generally benefits the currency. Traders pay close attention to this indicator because it acts as a leading indicator of consumer inflation; when businesses face higher labor costs, these increased expenses are often passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
In August, average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees increased by 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, reaching $35.21, reflecting a 3.8 percent rise over the past year. Private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees saw a similar 0.4 percent increase, with earnings reaching $30.27. The average workweek for all private nonfarm employees edged up to 34.3 hours, while manufacturing overtime increased slightly. These wage and workweek gains came amid slower job growth and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2 percent.
In August, average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees increased by 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, reaching $35.21, reflecting a 3.8 percent rise over the past year. Private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees saw a similar 0.4 percent increase, with earnings reaching $30.27. The average workweek for all private nonfarm employees edged up to 34.3 hours, while manufacturing overtime increased slightly. These wage and workweek gains came amid slower job growth and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2 percent.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Average Hourly Earnings | Increased by 14 cents (+0.4%) to $35.21. Up 3.8% YoY. |
| Production & Nonsupervisory Wages | Increased by 0.4% to $30.27. |
| Average Workweek | Increased to 34.3 hours. |
| Manufacturing Overtime | Slight increase observed. |
| Job Growth | Slower compared to previous trends. |
| Unemployment Rate | Unchanged at 4.2%. |
The forecast stands at 0.3%, compared to the previous outcome of 0.4%.
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
The Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of employed individuals in the economy during the previous month, excluding those in the farming sector. This indicator is crucial for currency traders because a higher-than-expected 'actual' figure compared to the 'forecast' typically signals a positive economic outlook, leading to currency appreciation. Job creation is a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of overall economic activity. Thus, strong employment figures often suggest a robust economy and can influence currency values accordingly.
In October 2024, U.S. employment data revealed minimal change, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 12,000 jobs, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment growth was observed in health care, which added 52,000 jobs, and government sectors, which grew by 40,000 jobs. However, manufacturing employment dropped by 46,000 due to strike activity, and temporary help services lost 49,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $35.46, marking a 4.0% increase over the past year. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which impacted southeastern states, may have influenced October data collection rates, but their effect on national employment and earnings estimates remains unclear.
In October 2024, U.S. employment data revealed minimal change, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 12,000 jobs, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment growth was observed in health care, which added 52,000 jobs, and government sectors, which grew by 40,000 jobs. However, manufacturing employment dropped by 46,000 due to strike activity, and temporary help services lost 49,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $35.46, marking a 4.0% increase over the past year. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which impacted southeastern states, may have influenced October data collection rates, but their effect on national employment and earnings estimates remains unclear.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | Increased by 12,000 jobs. |
| Unemployment Rate | Steady at 4.1%. |
| Sector Gains |
| - Health Care | +52,000 jobs. |
| - Government | +40,000 jobs. |
| Sector Losses |
| - Manufacturing | -46,000 jobs (due to strikes). |
| - Temporary Help Services | -49,000 jobs. |
| Average Hourly Earnings | Increased by 0.4% to $35.46 (+4.0% YoY). |
| External Factors | Hurricanes Helene and Milton may have affected data collection, but national employment and earnings impacts remain unclear. |
The forecast projected 218,000 jobs, significantly higher than the actual outcome of 12,000.
USD - Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment over the previous month. When the actual rate is lower than the forecasted rate, it is generally positive for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this figure because, despite being a lagging indicator, it reflects overall economic health and is closely linked to consumer spending. Additionally, the unemployment rate is crucial for shaping monetary policy, making it a key concern for policymakers and investors alike.
The U.S. unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in October 2024, despite disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the southeastern U.S., according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total nonfarm payroll employment saw a slight increase of 12,000 jobs, with gains in health care (+52,000) and government (+40,000) offset by losses in temporary help services (-49,000) and manufacturing (-46,000), the latter impacted by strike activity. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $35.46, reflecting a 4.0% increase over the past year, while the average workweek remained stable at 34.3 hours. Although data collection was challenging in storm-affected areas, the BLS did not alter its estimation procedures.
TL;DR
- Unemployment Rate: Held steady at 4.1%.
- Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Increased by 12,000 jobs, a significant slowdown from the prior 12-month average gain of 194,000 jobs.
- Sector Employment Changes:
- Health Care: Added 52,000 jobs, aligning with the average monthly gain over the past year.
- Government: Grew by 40,000 jobs, consistent with recent trends.
- Temporary Help Services: Declined by 49,000 jobs.
- Manufacturing: Decreased by 46,000 jobs, primarily due to strike activity in the transportation equipment sector.
- Average Hourly Earnings: Rose by 0.4% to $35.46, marking a 4.0% increase over the past year.
- Average Workweek: Remained unchanged at 34.3 hours.
The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.1%, consistent with the previous month's figure.
The upcoming release of key US labor market data, including Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate, is scheduled for Friday at 1:30 PM GMT. These metrics are expected to provide critical insights into employment trends and economic performance.
10th December 2024
Tuesday
Tuesday
Australia’s Reserve Bank is set to announce its Cash Rate decision, closely watched for clues on monetary policy direction. Influenced by recent inflation and employment data, the decision could impact borrowing costs, inflation control, and consumer spending amid economic challenges.
AUD - Cash Rate
The Cash Rate refers to the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial institutions. A rate higher than the forecast is typically positive for the currency. Traders closely monitor this rate, as short-term interest rates are a key driver of currency valuation, with other indicators primarily analyzed to anticipate rate changes.
On November 5, 2024, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board decided to maintain the cash rate target at 4.35% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%. The Board acknowledged that underlying inflation remained elevated despite a significant decrease since 2022, largely influenced by temporary cost of living relief and declines in fuel and electricity prices. Headline inflation was recorded at 2.8% in the September quarter, down from 3.8% in the June quarter, though underlying inflation persisted at 3.5%. Forecasts suggested that inflation would not return sustainably to the target midpoint of 2.5% until 2026. Economic growth remained weak, constrained by reduced real disposable incomes and restrictive financial conditions, though consumer demand showed resilience due to spending by temporary residents. Labour market conditions stayed tight with a steady unemployment rate at 4.1% and high participation levels, while wage pressures eased slightly against weak productivity growth. The Board noted uncertainties in the global outlook, as some central banks eased monetary policy, and geopolitical risks remained high, especially regarding China’s economic policy impact. Prioritizing a sustainable return to target inflation within a reasonable timeframe, the Board expressed its commitment to maintaining restrictive policy until confident of inflation moving towards the target range.
On November 5, 2024, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board decided to maintain the cash rate target at 4.35% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%. The Board acknowledged that underlying inflation remained elevated despite a significant decrease since 2022, largely influenced by temporary cost of living relief and declines in fuel and electricity prices. Headline inflation was recorded at 2.8% in the September quarter, down from 3.8% in the June quarter, though underlying inflation persisted at 3.5%. Forecasts suggested that inflation would not return sustainably to the target midpoint of 2.5% until 2026. Economic growth remained weak, constrained by reduced real disposable incomes and restrictive financial conditions, though consumer demand showed resilience due to spending by temporary residents. Labour market conditions stayed tight with a steady unemployment rate at 4.1% and high participation levels, while wage pressures eased slightly against weak productivity growth. The Board noted uncertainties in the global outlook, as some central banks eased monetary policy, and geopolitical risks remained high, especially regarding China’s economic policy impact. Prioritizing a sustainable return to target inflation within a reasonable timeframe, the Board expressed its commitment to maintaining restrictive policy until confident of inflation moving towards the target range.
TL;DR
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| November 5, 2024 | RBA maintained the cash rate target at 4.35% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%. |
| Key Highlights | Details |
|---|---|
| Inflation | - Headline inflation: 2.8% (Sep quarter), down from 3.8% (Jun quarter). - Underlying inflation: 3.5%, expected to reach 2.5% midpoint by 2026. - Driven by cost of living relief, fuel, and electricity price declines. |
| Economic Growth | - Growth remains weak, constrained by reduced disposable incomes and tight financial conditions. - Consumer demand supported by spending by temporary residents. |
| Labour Market | - Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. - High participation and easing wage pressures despite weak productivity growth. |
| Global Outlook | - Geopolitical risks remain high. - China’s economic policies and easing by some central banks pose uncertainties. |
| Policy Stance | - RBA committed to restrictive policy until confident of inflation nearing target range. |
Australia’s Cash Rate forecast stands at 4.35%, unchanged from the previous outcome, signaling steady monetary policy expectations.
Australia is set to announce its Cash Rate decision on Tuesday at 3:30 AM GMT.
11th December 2024
Wednesday
Wednesday
On Wednesday, significant economic updates are expected from both the United States and Canada, drawing the attention of global markets. The U.S. will release its latest inflation figures, offering insights into price trends and potential monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Canada will announce its Overnight Rate decision, a key indicator of the Bank of Canada’s stance on interest rates and its approach to managing economic conditions. These announcements are likely to impact currency valuations and market sentiment, as traders and investors assess their implications for future economic policies.
USD - Core CPI m/m
Core CPI (month-over-month) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. A result higher than the forecast is typically seen as positive for the currency. Consumer prices are a major driver of overall inflation, which plays a critical role in currency valuation. When inflation rises, central banks often respond by increasing interest rates to meet their mandate of controlling price stability, making Core CPI a closely watched indicator by traders and economists alike.
The core consumer price index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October, matching forecasts and bringing the annual core inflation rate to 3.3%. Shelter costs, a key driver, increased 0.4% for the month and 4.9% year-over-year, accounting for over half of the overall CPI gain. Used vehicle prices jumped 2.7%, while airline fares rose 3.2%, and egg prices dropped 6.4% but remained 30.4% higher annually. The data bolstered expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, but uncertainty about inflation and future policy under the incoming Trump administration has tempered expectations for further cuts in 2025.
The core consumer price index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October, matching forecasts and bringing the annual core inflation rate to 3.3%. Shelter costs, a key driver, increased 0.4% for the month and 4.9% year-over-year, accounting for over half of the overall CPI gain. Used vehicle prices jumped 2.7%, while airline fares rose 3.2%, and egg prices dropped 6.4% but remained 30.4% higher annually. The data bolstered expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, but uncertainty about inflation and future policy under the incoming Trump administration has tempered expectations for further cuts in 2025.
TL;DR
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy): Rose 0.3% in October, with an annual increase of 3.3%, aligning with forecasts.
- Shelter costs: Increased 0.4% monthly and 4.9% year-over-year, contributing over half of the overall CPI gain.
- Used vehicle prices: Jumped 2.7% in October.
- Airline fares: Rose 3.2% for the month.
- Egg prices: Dropped 6.4% in October but remained 30.4% higher than the previous year.
- Federal Reserve outlook: Data supports expectations for a December rate cut, though uncertainty about inflation and policy under the incoming Trump administration clouds 2025 rate forecasts.
The forecast for Core CPI m/m is 0.3%, consistent with the previous result.
USD - CPI m/m
The CPI m/m measures changes in consumer goods and service prices, where higher-than-forecast values benefit the currency; it's crucial to traders as it reflects inflation trends influencing central bank interest rate decisions, derived from comparing sampled average prices.
In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month, maintaining the trend from the previous three months and aligning with expectations. The increase was driven primarily by a 0.4% rise in shelter costs, which accounted for more than half of the gain, while food prices edged up 0.2% and energy costs remained flat. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also climbed 0.3%, consistent with forecasts. Notable price increases included used cars and trucks (2.7%), airline fares (3.2%), and medical care (0.4%), while declines were seen in apparel (-1.5%), communication (-0.6%), and household furnishings.
In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month, maintaining the trend from the previous three months and aligning with expectations. The increase was driven primarily by a 0.4% rise in shelter costs, which accounted for more than half of the gain, while food prices edged up 0.2% and energy costs remained flat. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also climbed 0.3%, consistent with forecasts. Notable price increases included used cars and trucks (2.7%), airline fares (3.2%), and medical care (0.4%), while declines were seen in apparel (-1.5%), communication (-0.6%), and household furnishings.
TL;DR
- Overall CPI: Increased 0.2% in October, consistent with the previous three months and forecasts.
- Key Driver: Shelter costs rose 0.4%, contributing over half of the CPI gain.
- Food Prices: Edged up 0.2%.
- Energy Costs: Remained flat.
- Core CPI (excludes food & energy): Climbed 0.3%, matching expectations.
- Notable Increases:
- Used cars and trucks: +2.7%
- Airline fares: +3.2%
- Medical care: +0.4%
- Notable Declines:
- Apparel: -1.5%
- Communication: -0.6%
- Household furnishings: -0.4%
USD - CPI y/y
The CPI y/y measures the annual change in consumer goods and service prices, where higher-than-forecast values benefit the currency; it is vital to traders as it indicates inflation trends that drive central bank interest rate decisions, derived by comparing sampled average prices year-over-year.
The U.S. annual inflation rate rose to 2.6% in October 2024, up from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase in seven months and aligning with market expectations. This rise, driven largely by shelter costs, which climbed 4.9% year-over-year, reflects moderating declines in energy prices and slower food inflation at 2.1%. Monthly consumer price growth held steady at 0.2%, with shelter accounting for over half of the gain. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained unchanged at 3.3% annually, further signaling persistent price pressures in key categories despite easing elsewhere.
The U.S. annual inflation rate rose to 2.6% in October 2024, up from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase in seven months and aligning with market expectations. This rise, driven largely by shelter costs, which climbed 4.9% year-over-year, reflects moderating declines in energy prices and slower food inflation at 2.1%. Monthly consumer price growth held steady at 0.2%, with shelter accounting for over half of the gain. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained unchanged at 3.3% annually, further signaling persistent price pressures in key categories despite easing elsewhere.
TL;DR
- Annual Inflation Rate: Rose to 2.6% in October, up from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase in seven months and meeting expectations.
- Key Driver: Shelter costs increased 4.9% year-over-year, contributing significantly to inflation.
- Energy Prices: Declines moderated, slowing the downward pressure on overall inflation.
- Food Inflation: Slowed to 2.1% year-over-year.
- Monthly Consumer Price Growth: Held steady at 0.2%, with shelter accounting for over half the increase.
- Core Inflation (excludes food & energy): Unchanged at 3.3% annually, indicating persistent price pressures in certain categories.
The CPI y/y forecast is 2.7%, up from the previous outcome of 2.6%.The upcoming inflation data is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 1:30 PM GMT, providing critical insights for market analysis.
CAD - Overnight Rate
The Overnight Rate represents the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds. Higher-than-expected rates often strengthen the currency, as traders closely monitor this key indicator to predict future rate movements.
The Bank of Canada reduced its policy interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing the overnight rate target to 3.75% as part of its efforts to manage economic growth and inflation while normalizing its balance sheet. The rate cut was driven by slower economic growth, with Canada's GDP slowing from 2% in the first half of the year to 1.75% in the latter half. Inflation decreased from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September, supported by lower global oil prices. However, challenges persisted, including a 6.5% unemployment rate and high shelter costs. Despite these issues, the Bank projected moderate GDP growth in the coming years, forecasting 1.2% in 2024 and over 2% in 2025 and 2026. It also indicated the possibility of further interest rate reductions depending on future economic conditions.
The Bank of Canada reduced its policy interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing the overnight rate target to 3.75% as part of its efforts to manage economic growth and inflation while normalizing its balance sheet. The rate cut was driven by slower economic growth, with Canada's GDP slowing from 2% in the first half of the year to 1.75% in the latter half. Inflation decreased from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September, supported by lower global oil prices. However, challenges persisted, including a 6.5% unemployment rate and high shelter costs. Despite these issues, the Bank projected moderate GDP growth in the coming years, forecasting 1.2% in 2024 and over 2% in 2025 and 2026. It also indicated the possibility of further interest rate reductions depending on future economic conditions.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Policy Rate Cut | Reduced by 50 basis points to 3.75%. |
| Reason for Rate Cut | Slowing GDP growth: 2% (H1) to 1.75% (H2) in 2024. |
| Inflation | Declined from 2.7% (June) to 1.6% (September), aided by lower oil prices. |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.5%. |
| Shelter Costs | Remain high despite other easing pressures. |
| GDP Growth Forecast | 2024: 1.2%; 2025-2026: Above 2%. |
| Future Rate Outlook | Potential for further reductions based on economic conditions. |
The forecast for Canada's Overnight Rate stands at 3.25%, down from the previous outcome of 3.75%.
Canada is set to announce its Overnight Rate on Wednesday at 2:45 PM GMT.
12th December 2024
Thursday
Thursday
On December 12th, several key economic announcements will shape the markets. Australia kicks off with its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, providing insights into its labor market. Switzerland follows with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announcing its Policy Rate decision. The Eurozone will take the spotlight next as the European Central Bank (ECB) releases its Main Refinancing Rate, a key indicator of monetary policy direction. Finally, the U.S. will report Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, offering a comprehensive view of inflation and labor market trends. These updates are crucial for gauging global economic momentum.
AUD - Employment Change
Australia’s labor market showed signs of slowing in October, with Employment Change figures revealing a modest addition of 15,900 jobs, significantly lower than September’s revised 61,300 and the forecasted 25,000. Full-time employment grew by 9,700 jobs, while part-time roles increased by 6,200, both down from previous gains. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, matching market expectations, but the participation rate dipped slightly to 67.1% from 67.2%. The data highlights a cooling trend in job growth, raising concerns about the broader economic outlook.
TL;DR
- Job Growth Slows: October saw a modest addition of 15,900 jobs, compared to September's revised 61,300 and the forecasted 25,000.
- Employment Breakdown: Full-time jobs increased by 9,700; part-time jobs rose by 6,200.
- Unemployment Rate: Held steady at 4.1%, in line with expectations.
- Participation Rate: Dropped slightly to 67.1% from 67.2%.
- Economic Concerns: Data indicates a cooling trend in job growth, raising concerns about the broader economy.
The forecast has been adjusted to 26,000, up from the previous 15,900.
AUD - Unemployment Rate
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in October 2024, marking the third consecutive month at this level. While employment rose by 16,000 people and unemployment increased by 8,000, population growth outpaced these changes, leading to a slight dip in the participation rate to 67.1%. Employment growth slowed to 0.1%, the lowest rate in recent months, though the employment-to-population ratio remained at a historic high of 64.4%. Hours worked also grew by 0.1%, aligning with employment growth. The underemployment rate dropped to 6.2%, and the underutilisation rate stayed at 10.4%, reflecting a relatively tight labour market. Female participation rates reached a record 63.1%, highlighting a significant post-pandemic increase.
TL;DR
| Metric | October 2024 Value | Details |
|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | Steady for the third consecutive month. |
| Employment Change | +16,000 | Employment rose, but growth slowed to 0.1%. |
| Unemployment Change | +8,000 | Increase partly due to population growth. |
| Participation Rate | 67.1% | Slight dip from population growth impact. |
| Employment-to-Population | 64.4% | Maintained historic high. |
| Hours Worked | +0.1% | Aligned with employment growth. |
| Underemployment Rate | 6.2% | Dropped, indicating tighter labour market. |
| Underutilisation Rate | 10.4% | Remained steady. |
| Female Participation | 63.1% | Record high, boosted post-pandemic. |
The forecast stands at 4.2%, up from the previous 4.1%.
The Employment Change and Unemployment Rate report is scheduled for release on Thursday at 12:30 AM GMT.
CHF - SNB Policy Rate
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced a reduction in its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to 1.0%, effective from 27 September 2024. This decision followed a significant decrease in inflationary pressure, aided by the strengthening of the Swiss franc and a decline in imported goods prices. In August, inflation stood at 1.1%, down from 1.4% in May, and the SNB projected it would average 1.2% in 2024, dropping further to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. The central bank remained prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, and future rate cuts were anticipated to maintain price stability. Swiss economic growth had been solid, particularly in the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors, though overall growth was expected to slow due to the franc's appreciation and global economic moderation. The SNB anticipated GDP growth of around 1% for 2024, with a slight rise in unemployment and a temporary dip in production capacity utilization. Risks remained, including potential global geopolitical tensions and persistently high inflation in some countries. Growth was forecast to improve in 2025, with GDP expected to increase by 1.5%.
TL;DR
| Metric/Aspect | Details |
|---|
| Policy Rate Change | Reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 1.0% (effective 27 September 2024). |
| Reason for Rate Cut | Lower inflationary pressure, strong Swiss franc, and reduced imported goods prices. |
| Inflation Rates | 2024: 1.2% (projected), 2025: 0.6% (projected), 2026: 0.7% (projected). |
| Current Inflation | August 2024: 1.1% (down from 1.4% in May 2024). |
| Economic Growth (GDP) | 2024: ~1% (projected), 2025: 1.5% (projected). |
| Economic Sectors | Growth solid in chemicals and pharmaceuticals; overall slowing due to franc appreciation. |
| Unemployment Rate | Slight increase anticipated in 2024. |
| Capacity Utilization | Temporary dip expected in production capacity. |
| Global Risks | Geopolitical tensions, high inflation in some countries. |
| SNB Actions | Prepared to intervene in forex markets if necessary; future rate cuts possible. |
The forecast stands at 0.75%, compared to the previous 1.00%.
The SNB Policy Rate will be released on Thursday at 8:30 AM GMT.
EUR - Main Refinancing Rate
The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 3.40%, effective October 23, 2024. This marked the third consecutive rate cut that year. The move, accompanied by cuts to the deposit facility and marginal lending facility rates, reflected the ECB's updated inflation outlook, which showed disinflation had progressed as anticipated. Despite inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in over three years, rising wage pressures and economic uncertainties continued to influence inflation dynamics. Inflation was projected to rise in subsequent months but was expected to decline toward the 2% target by 2025. The ECB had remained focused on maintaining restrictive monetary policy to meet its medium-term inflation goals, relying on a data-driven approach for future rate decisions.
TL;DR
| Key Information | Details |
|---|
| Rate Cut | 25 basis points reduction to 3.40% |
| Effective Date | October 23, 2024 |
| Number of Rate Cuts in 2024 | Third consecutive rate cut |
| Additional Rate Cuts | Deposit facility and marginal lending facility rates also reduced |
| Reason for Rate Cut | Updated inflation outlook, showing progress in disinflation |
| Inflation | Fell below 2% target for the first time in over three years |
| Future Inflation Expectations | Expected to rise initially, but decline toward 2% target by 2025 |
| Economic Influences | Rising wage pressures, economic uncertainties |
| Monetary Policy Focus | Maintained restrictive stance to meet medium-term inflation goals |
| Future Rate Decisions | Data-driven approach |
The forecast stands at 3.15%, down from the previous 3.40%.
The next announcement of the Main Refinancing Rate is scheduled for Thursday at 1:15 PM GMT.
USD - Core PPI m/m
Core producer prices in the United States, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% in October 2024 from the prior month, matching market expectations and accelerating from a 0.2% rise in September. Annually, core producer prices rose 3.1%, the highest in four months, following an upwardly revised 2.9% gain in September and slightly exceeding forecasts of a 3% increase. This suggests continued pricing pressures in the production pipeline, reinforcing expectations of persistent inflationary trends in core sectors.
TL;DR
| Key Information | Details |
|---|
| Monthly Change | Increased by 0.3% in October 2024 (from September) |
| Monthly Change (Previous Month) | 0.2% rise in September |
| Annual Change | Increased by 3.1% in October 2024 |
| Previous Annual Change | 2.9% (revised for September 2024) |
| Market Expectations | October’s rise matched expectations |
| Inflation Trends | Suggests persistent inflationary pressures in core sectors |
| Forecasts | Annual increase slightly exceeded forecasts of 3% |
| Implication | Continued pricing pressures in the production pipeline |
The forecast stands at 0.2%, compared to the previous outcome of 0.3%.
USD - PPI m/m
Factory gate prices in the U.S. rose 0.2% month-over-month in October 2024, following an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in September and meeting market expectations. Service prices increased by 0.3%, driven in part by a 3.6% surge in portfolio management costs, while goods prices edged up 0.1%, reversing two months of declines, boosted by an 8.4% rise in carbon steel scrap. On an annual basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 2.4%, exceeding forecasts of 2.3% and up from a revised 1.9% in September. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual core rate accelerating to 3.1% from a revised 2.9%, slightly above market expectations of 3%. These figures highlight persistent inflationary pressures across both services and goods.
TL;DR
| Key Information | Details |
|---|
| Monthly Change (Overall) | Increased by 0.2% in October 2024 (from September) |
| Monthly Change (Previous Month) | Upwardly revised 0.1% in September |
| Service Prices | Increased by 0.3%, driven by 3.6% rise in portfolio management |
| Goods Prices | Rose by 0.1%, reversing two months of declines, boosted by 8.4% rise in carbon steel scrap |
| Annual Change (PPI) | Rose 2.4%, exceeding forecasts of 2.3% |
| Previous Annual Change (PPI) | Revised 1.9% in September |
| Core PPI (Excluding Food and Energy) | Monthly rise of 0.3% |
| Core Annual Change (PPI) | Increased to 3.1%, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3% |
| Implication | Persistent inflationary pressures across services and goods |
The forecast remains at 0.2%, unchanged from the previous outcome.
USD – Unemployment Claims
In the week ending November 30, 2024, seasonally adjusted Initial Jobless Claims in the United States rose to 224,000, marking a 9,000 increase from the prior week's revised level of 215,000. The 4-week moving average also edged up to 218,250, reflecting a 750 increase from the revised average of 217,500. Meanwhile, the insured unemployment rate for the week ending November 23 decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%. Insured unemployment figures declined to 1,871,000, down 25,000 from the previous week's revised total of 1,896,000, with the 4-week moving average slightly reduced to 1,884,250. Historically, Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. have averaged 363,450 since 1967, peaking at 6,137,000 in April 2020 and hitting a record low of 162,000 in November 1968. These figures suggest a modest uptick in claims but remain relatively low compared to historical trends.
TL;DR
| Key Information | Details |
|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Nov 30) | 224,000, up 9,000 from the previous week (215,000) |
| 4-Week Moving Average (Initial Claims) | 218,250, up 750 from the previous week's revised average (217,500) |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (Week Ending Nov 23) | Decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2% |
| Insured Unemployment (Week Ending Nov 23) | 1,871,000, down 25,000 from the previous week's revised total (1,896,000) |
| 4-Week Moving Average (Insured Unemployment) | Slightly reduced to 1,884,250 |
| Historical Averages (Initial Jobless Claims) | Average since 1967: 363,450; Peak: 6,137,000 (April 2020); Low: 162,000 (November 1968) |
| Implication | Modest uptick in claims, but still relatively low compared to historical trends |
The forecast stands at 221,000 compared to previous 224,000 outcome.
The upcoming releases for Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims are scheduled for Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.
13th December 2024
Friday
Friday
The United Kingdom is preparing to release its monthly GDP (m/m) figures, offering critical insights into the nation's economic performance. This announcement will shed light on the country's short-term growth trajectory and provide valuable data for policymakers, investors, and analysts assessing the state of the UK economy.
GBP – GDP m/m
The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in September 2024, its first decline in five months, following a 0.2% rise in August and missing growth expectations of 0.2%. Production output dropped by 0.5%, driven by a 1% fall in manufacturing and declines in water supply (-0.7%) and energy-related sectors (-1.9%). The services sector stagnated, with a notable 2.6% drop in computer programming and consultancy activities. Construction output grew slightly by 0.1%, supported by a 0.4% increase in repair and maintenance, though new project activity fell by 0.2%.
TL;DR
| Sector | Change | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Overall UK GDP | -0.1% | First decline in five months |
| Production Output | -0.5% | -1% in manufacturing, declines in water supply (-0.7%) and energy sectors (-1.9%) |
| Services Sector | Stagnant | -2.6% in computer programming and consultancy |
| Construction Output | +0.1% | +0.4% in repair and maintenance, -0.2% in new projects |
The GDP month-on-month forecast stands at 0.1%, an improvement from the previous outcome of -0.1%.
The next GDP m/m report is scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 AM GMT.
16th December 2024
Monday
Monday
Next Monday, December 16, market attention will sharply focus on pivotal economic updates as major economies unveil their latest PMI data. France, Germany, the UK, and the US are set to release Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI figures, providing a vital snapshot of economic health and sector performance. These releases are anticipated to significantly influence market movements, offering traders and analysts crucial insights ahead of year-end strategies.
EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI
In November 2024, France's HCOB Manufacturing PMI fell to 43.1, down from 44.5 in October and below the initial estimate of 43.2, marking the 22nd consecutive month of contraction. New orders declined at the steepest rate since May 2020, with both domestic and international demand weakening, especially from the US and Germany. This led to significant cuts in purchasing activity and inventory levels, as firms focused on preserving cash flow. Output contracted sharply, particularly in construction, cosmetics, and automotive sectors. Employment continued to decrease, mostly through the non-replacement of temporary workers. While input costs rose moderately, firms were forced to reduce selling prices at the fastest rate in over a year due to intense competitive pressures. Looking ahead, business confidence remained pessimistic, with firms cautious about future output amid ongoing demand issues and economic uncertainty.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| PMI Data | November 2024: 43.1 (down from 44.5 in October, below 43.2 initial estimate) |
| Contraction | 22nd consecutive month of contraction |
| New Orders | Steepest decline since May 2020; weakened domestic and international demand (US, Germany) |
| Purchasing Activity | Significant cuts; focus on cash flow preservation |
| Inventory Levels | Reduced due to lower demand |
| Output | Sharp contraction in construction, cosmetics, and automotive sectors |
| Employment | Continued decline, mostly through non-replacement of temporary workers |
| Input Costs | Moderate increase |
| Selling Prices | Reduced at the fastest rate in over a year due to competitive pressures |
| Business Confidence | Pessimistic; cautious outlook amid demand issues and economic uncertainty |
The Flash Manufacturing PMI is projected to be 43.0, slightly lower than the previous reading of 43.1.
EUR - French Flash Services PMI
In November 2024, France's HCOB Services PMI dropped to 46.9, revised up from the initial estimate of 45.7 but down from 49.2 in October. This marked the sharpest contraction since January, driven by a significant decline in demand. New orders fell at their fastest pace in a year, influenced by economic uncertainty and tight budget constraints.
TL;DR
| PMI Data | November 2024: 46.9 (revised up from 45.7, down from 49.2 in October) |
| Contraction | Sharpest since January 2024 |
| New Orders | Fastest decline in a year; impacted by economic uncertainty and tight budget constraints |
| Demand | Significant decline |
The Flash Services PMI is expected to be 46.4, a decline from the previous result of 46.9.
The French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI will be released on Monday at 8:15 AM GMT.
EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Germany’s Flash Manufacturing PMI Output Index rose slightly to 43.2 in November 2024, a 5-month high, but the economy continued to contract, marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline in business activity. Both manufacturing and services sectors reported weaker demand, with services activity contracting for the first time in nine months, driven by reduced orders and customer uncertainty. Employment fell for the sixth straight month as job cuts persisted across sectors, although the rate of decline slowed. Inflationary pressures increased, with input costs and output prices rising at the fastest pace in three months, particularly in the service sector. Manufacturers continued to face falling export orders and prolonged inventory reductions amid weak global demand. Despite these challenges, business confidence improved slightly, reflecting hopes for economic recovery after next year’s elections. However, political and economic uncertainty, including trade tensions and cost-cutting measures in the automotive industry, dampened the overall outlook.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| PMI Data | Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 43.2 (5-month high, still contracting) |
| Business Activity | Fifth consecutive monthly decline |
| Sector Performance | - Manufacturing: Falling export orders, prolonged inventory reductions |
| - Services: First contraction in 9 months, reduced orders, customer uncertainty |
| Employment | Decline for the sixth month; slower rate of job cuts |
| Inflation | Input costs and output prices rising at the fastest pace in 3 months, led by the service sector |
| Demand | Weaker across both sectors, reflecting global demand issues |
| Business Confidence | Slight improvement; hopes for post-election recovery |
| Challenges | Political/economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and automotive industry cost-cutting measures |
EUR – German Flash Services PMI
In November 2024, Germany's HCOB Services PMI fell to 49.3, down from 51.6 in October and revised lower from an initial estimate of 49.4, marking the first contraction in business activity in nine months. Weaker demand, driven by political and economic uncertainty, led to a third consecutive month of falling new orders, with international demand also declining, though at a slower pace. Employment decreased for the fifth month in a row, the longest streak of job cuts since 2009, though at a slower pace than in previous months. Rising wages contributed to higher input costs, resulting in the steepest increase in output prices since April. Service providers' growth expectations for the next 12 months weakened slightly amid ongoing uncertainty.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| PMI Data | Services PMI: 49.3 (down from 51.6 in October, revised from 49.4) |
| Contraction | First contraction in business activity in nine months |
| New Orders | Declined for the third consecutive month; slower decline in international demand |
| Employment | Decreased for the fifth month, the longest streak since 2009; slower rate of job cuts |
| Input Costs | Increased due to rising wages |
| Output Prices | Steepest rise since April 2024 |
| Business Confidence | Growth expectations weakened slightly due to political and economic uncertainty |
The German Flash Services PMI is projected to be 49.2, slightly down from the previous reading of 49.3.
The German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI will be released on Monday at 8:30 AM GMT.
UK - Flash Manufacturing PMI
In November 2024, the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 48, from an initial 48.6 and compared to 49.9 in October, signaling the sharpest contraction since February. Output declined for the first time in seven months, driven by the steepest drop in new orders since February. Economic uncertainty, weak demand, and rising costs led to reductions in staffing, purchasing, and inventory. The export sector also struggled, with weaker demand from the US, China, and the EU contributing to a drop in new export business. Supply chain disruptions, including the Red Sea crisis and port issues, caused delays and cost increases. Despite these challenges, the overall outlook for the sector remained positive.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| PMI Data | Manufacturing PMI: 48 (revised down from 48.6, compared to 49.9 in October) |
| Contraction | Sharpest since February 2024 |
| Output | Declined for the first time in seven months |
| New Orders | Steepest drop since February, impacted by economic uncertainty and weak demand |
| Employment | Reductions due to rising costs and weak demand |
| Export Sector | Declined, with weaker demand from the US, China, and the EU |
| Supply Chain | Disruptions from the Red Sea crisis and port issues caused delays and cost increases |
| Purchasing & Inventory | Reduced as firms adjusted to weaker demand |
| Business Outlook | Remained positive despite challenges |
The Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.1, slightly higher than the previous reading of 48.0.
UK - Flash Services PMI
In November 2024, the S&P Global UK Services PMI was revised up to 50.8, from an initial 50 but down from 52 in October, indicating slow growth in business activity—the weakest since the expansion began in November 2023. Service providers faced challenges due to economic uncertainty and concerns over tax hikes in the Autumn Budget. New business volumes increased for the thirteenth straight month, driven by strong consumer spending, though growth slowed to its weakest pace since June. Foreign demand moderated, despite stronger interest from US clients. Employment fell for the second month, though at a slower rate. Cost inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since April, and price charges rose to their highest level since July. Confidence in the business outlook dropped to its lowest since December 2022.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| PMI Data | Services PMI: 50.8 (revised up from 50, down from 52 in October) |
| Growth | Slowest expansion since November 2023 |
| New Business | Increased for the 13th consecutive month; slowest growth since June |
| Foreign Demand | Moderated, with stronger interest from US clients |
| Employment | Declined for the second month, though at a slower pace |
| Cost Inflation | Accelerated to the fastest pace since April |
| Price Charges | Increased to the highest level since July |
| Business Confidence | Dropped to the lowest since December 2022, influenced by economic uncertainty and tax concerns |
The Flash Services PMI is projected to be 51.0, up from the previous result of 50.8.
The Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI will be announced on Monday at 9:30 AM GMT.
USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
In November 2024, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 49.7, up from a preliminary 48.8 and compared to 48.5 in October, signaling near stabilization in the sector. The decline in new orders slowed significantly, and stronger confidence about the future led to increased hiring. Despite this, output continued to contract. Input cost inflation weakened to its slowest pace in a year, while output prices rose slightly faster. Optimism for the year ahead reached its highest level in two and a half years, driven by reduced election uncertainty and expectations of stronger economic growth and increased protectionism under the upcoming Trump administration in 2025.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| PMI Data | Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 (revised up from 48.8, compared to 48.5 in October) |
| Sector Trend | Near stabilization |
| New Orders | Decline slowed significantly |
| Output | Continued to contract |
| Employment | Increased due to stronger confidence about the future |
| Input Costs | Inflation weakened to its slowest pace in a year |
| Output Prices | Rose slightly faster |
| Business Confidence | Highest in two and a half years, driven by reduced election uncertainty and policy expectations |
USD – Flash Services PMI
In November 2024, the S&P Global US Services PMI was revised down to 56.1, from a preliminary 57, but still higher than October’s 55, reflecting the fastest growth in the sector since March 2022. Both business activity and new orders accelerated, with some firms attributing the growth to the end of election uncertainty and lower interest rates. However, companies remained cautious about hiring, leading to a slight reduction in employment and a buildup of outstanding business. While input costs continued to rise sharply, inflation eased, and output prices increased at the slowest pace in four-and-a-half years. Overall, firms were optimistic about future business activity.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| PMI Data | Services PMI: 56.1 (revised down from 57, up from 55 in October) |
| Growth | Fastest in the sector since March 2022 |
| Business Activity | Accelerated, driven by reduced election uncertainty and lower interest rates |
| New Orders | Increased |
| Employment | Slight reduction; led to a buildup of outstanding business |
| Input Costs | Continued to rise sharply, though inflation eased |
| Output Prices | Increased at the slowest pace in four-and-a-half years |
| Business Confidence | Optimistic about future activity |
The Flash Services PMI is projected to be 56.0, slightly down from the previous reading of 56.1.
The Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI will be released on Monday at 2:45 PM GMT.
17th December 2024
Tuesday
Tuesday
On December 17th, markets are set for a day of significant economic data releases that could drive major movements. The UK is poised to unveil its Claimant Count Change, providing insight into the health of its labor market. Meanwhile, Canada will publish its latest inflation figures, offering a key gauge of price pressures in the economy. In the U.S., all eyes will be on the Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales data for November, critical indicators of consumer spending and overall economic momentum. These high-impact releases are likely to shape market sentiment and influence trading strategies across key currency pairs.
GBP - Claimant Count Change
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK rose by 26,700 to reach 1.806 million in October 2024, marking a notable increase compared to the revised rise of 10,100 in September. However, the latest figure fell short of market forecasts, which had predicted a steeper growth of 30,500. Despite the slower-than-expected rise, the data pointed to a continuing upward trend in claims, reflecting ongoing challenges in the UK labor market amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty and tightening financial conditions. Analysts noted that while the increase was milder than anticipated, it still signaled a gradual worsening of unemployment pressures.
TL;DR
- Unemployment Claims in the UK rose by 26,700 to reach 1.806 million in October 2024.
- The increase was higher than the revised rise of 10,100 in September 2024.
- Market forecasts had predicted a steeper rise of 30,500 claims.
- Despite the slower-than-expected increase, the data indicates a continuing upward trend in unemployment claims.
- The rise reflects ongoing challenges in the UK labor market amid economic uncertainty and tightening financial conditions.
- Analysts noted that while the increase was milder than expected, it still signals a gradual worsening of unemployment pressures.
The forecast stands at 28,200, compared to the previous outcome of 26,700.
The upcoming Claimant Count Change is set to be released on Tuesday at 7:00 AM GMT.
CAD - CPI m/m
Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in October 2024, exceeding the historical average monthly increase of 0.29% observed since 1950. This marks a notable acceleration in price growth, aligning with the annual inflation uptick to 2%. The monthly increase reflects smaller declines in gasoline prices and faster growth in grocery and property-related costs, despite easing pressures in the rental market and mortgage interest rates. Historically, Canada's CPI has ranged from a high of 2.6% in January 1991 to a low of -1.3% in June 1959.
TL;DR
- Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in October 2024.
- This increase exceeds the historical average monthly rise of 0.29% since 1950.
- Annual inflation also increased to 2%.
- Price growth was driven by smaller gasoline price declines and higher grocery and property-related costs.
- Rental market pressures and mortgage rates eased.
- Historical CPI range: 2.6% (January 1991) to -1.3% (June 1959).
The forecast for the CPI m/m stands at 0.1%, a decrease compared to the previous 0.4% outcome.
CAD – Median CPI y/y
Canada's median Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.5% year-on-year in October 2024, up from 2.3% in September, which had marked its lowest level since April 2021. The October figure surpassed market expectations of a 2.4% rise, signaling a slight acceleration in underlying inflation pressures. This comes as headline inflation also reached the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, driven by moderating declines in gasoline prices and faster price increases in grocery and property-related costs, despite some relief in the rental market and mortgage interest rates. The data adds complexity to the central bank's approach as it evaluates the pace and size of anticipated interest rate cuts.
TL;DR
- Canada's median Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.5% year-on-year in October 2024, up from 2.3% in September.
- The October increase surpassed expectations of 2.4%, signaling underlying inflation pressures.
- Headline inflation reached the Bank of Canada's 2% target, driven by moderating gasoline price declines and faster grocery and property cost increases.
- The data adds complexity to the Bank of Canada's approach to interest rate cuts.
The forecast for the Median Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (y/y) is 2.4%, slightly lower than the previous 2.5% outcome.
CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y
Canada's trimmed-mean core inflation rate, a key measure used by the Bank of Canada to gauge underlying inflation, rose to 2.6% year-on-year in October 2024, rebounding from 2.4% in September, which was its lowest level since April 2021. This increase exceeded market expectations of 2.4% and reflects a resurgence in core inflation pressures as headline inflation returned to the central bank’s 2% target. The rise comes amid moderating declines in gasoline prices and higher annual increases in grocery and property-related costs, with the data expected to influence the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decisions, including anticipated interest rate cuts in the coming months.
TL;DR
- Canada's trimmed-mean core inflation rose to 2.6% year-on-year in October 2024, up from 2.4% in September.
- This exceeded market expectations of 2.4%, indicating a resurgence in core inflation pressures.
- The rise was driven by moderating gasoline price declines and higher grocery and property-related costs.
- The data may influence the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decisions, including potential interest rate cuts in the near future.
The forecast for the Trimmed CPI y/y stands at 2.5%, slightly lower than the previous outcome of 2.6%.
Canada's inflation figures will be released on Tuesday at 1:30 PM GMT.
USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
U.S. retail sales excluding autos edged up by 0.1% in October 2024 compared to the previous month, following a stronger-than-expected 1% increase in September, according to revised data. The October gain fell short of market expectations of a 0.3% rise, indicating a slight cooling in consumer spending momentum. On an annual basis, retail sales excluding autos grew by 2.7%, reflecting continued, albeit slower, growth compared to the same period last year.
TL;DR
- U.S. retail sales excluding autos rose by 0.1% in October 2024, following a stronger-than-expected 1% increase in September.
- The October gain missed expectations of 0.3%, signaling a slight slowdown in consumer spending.
- On an annual basis, retail sales grew by 2.7%, indicating continued but slower growth compared to last year.
USD - Retail Sales m/m
U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% in October, continuing to highlight robust consumer spending that is driving steady economic growth. While the increase was less than September's 0.8% gain, sectors like auto dealers, restaurants, and electronics stores saw notable growth. The Commerce Department's report suggests the economy is on track for brisk growth in the fourth quarter, following a solid 2.8% annual growth rate in the previous quarter. Inflation has eased significantly from its 9.1% peak two years ago, with take-home pay outpacing rising prices for the past 18 months, though prices remain 20% higher than three years ago. Despite lingering economic concerns, consumer confidence has improved, with recession fears at their lowest since 2022. This sets the stage for a moderately strong holiday shopping season, with spending projected to grow by 2.5% to 3.5% compared to last year.
TL;DR
Category | Details |
|---|
Retail Sales Growth | U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% in October 2024 |
Sector Growth | Auto dealers, restaurants, and electronics stores saw notable growth |
Economic Outlook | Solid 2.8% annual growth in Q3, continued economic strength |
Inflation | Eased significantly from 9.1% peak two years ago; take-home pay outpaces inflation |
Consumer Confidence | Improved, recession fears at lowest since 2022 |
Holiday Spending Forecast | Projected growth of 2.5% to 3.5% in retail spending compared to last year |
The retail sales month-over-month forecast is 0.6%, up from the previous outcome of 0.4%.
The US will release its Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales data for the month on Tuesday at 1:30 PM GMT.
19th December 2023
Thursday
Thursday
On December 19th, several key economic updates are anticipated from major economies. Japan is set to announce its Policy Rate, providing insights into the Bank of Japan's monetary stance. The UK will release its Official Bank Rate decision, highlighting its approach to tackling inflation and economic challenges. Meanwhile, the United States will reveal its Final GDP quarter-over-quarter data alongside Unemployment Claims, offering a comprehensive view of its economic performance and labor market conditions. These announcements are expected to draw significant market attention.
JPY - BOJ Policy Rate
The BOJ Policy Rate measures the interest rate applied to excess current account balances held at the BOJ, with a higher-than-expected rate being favorable for the currency, as short-term interest rates are the key factor in currency valuation, influencing traders' expectations for future rate changes.In October, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at about 0.25%, aligning with market expectations and marking its highest level since 2008. This decision came as Japan adjusted to post-election political shifts and approached the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Governor Kazuo Ueda had emphasized a cautious approach due to rising global economic uncertainties, noting that the bank had the opportunity to assess potential risks following rate hikes made in March and July. The BoJ had indicated it would consider further rate adjustments if economic and inflation trends aligned with its expectations. In its quarterly outlook, the bank retained its projection for core inflation to reach 2.5% in fiscal year 2024, with inflation anticipated to moderate to about 1.9% in 2025 and 2026. GDP growth forecasts also remained unchanged, with an expected 0.6% in 2024, followed by increases to 1.1% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Decision | Maintained key short-term interest rate at ~0.25%. |
| Significance | Highest rate since 2008; aligned with market expectations. |
| Context | Post-election political adjustments in Japan; approaching U.S. presidential election. |
| Governor's View | Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized caution due to global economic uncertainties. |
| Recent Rate Changes | Rate hikes in March and July; risks under assessment. |
| Future Adjustments | Dependent on economic and inflation trends aligning with BoJ expectations. |
| Inflation Outlook | - 2.5% core inflation for FY 2024. - 1.9% in 2025 and 2026. |
| GDP Growth Forecast | - 0.6% in 2024. - 1.1% in 2025. - 1.0% in 2026. |
The next BOJ policy rate decision will be released on Thursday, with the exact time still tentative.
GBP - Official Bank Rate
The Official Bank Rate measures the interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight, with a rate higher than forecast being positive for the currency, as short-term interest rates are the key driver of currency valuation, prompting traders to monitor indicators to predict future rate changes.The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.75%, following an 8–1 vote, reflecting ongoing progress in disinflation as global shocks abated. However, domestic inflationary pressures had been easing more slowly, with CPI inflation, at 1.7% in September, expected to rise to around 2.5% by year-end as weaker energy prices fell out of annual comparisons. While the labor market had been loosening, it remained relatively tight by historical standards, and wage growth persisted at an elevated 4.8%. The MPC's projections, based on a scenario requiring a period of economic slack to normalize wage and price-setting behaviors, anticipated CPI inflation returning to the 2% target in the medium term. Additionally, the Autumn Budget was forecast to provide a 0.75% GDP boost but to increase inflation slightly by 0.5 percentage points at its peak. Policymakers stressed the uncertainties around wage dynamics and the potential structural shifts in inflation persistence, reaffirming the need for restrictive monetary policy to remain in place until the risks to sustainably achieving the inflation target had further dissipated.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Decision | Bank Rate reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 4.75%. |
| MPC Vote | 8–1 in favor of the rate cut. |
| Inflation Trends | - CPI inflation at 1.7% in September. - Expected to rise to ~2.5% by year-end. |
| Inflation Drivers | Impact of weaker energy prices diminishing from annual comparisons. |
| Labor Market | Loosening but still tight historically; wage growth at 4.8%. |
| Inflation Outlook | CPI inflation expected to return to 2% target in the medium term, contingent on economic slack. |
| Autumn Budget Impact | - Forecasted to boost GDP by 0.75%. - Expected to raise inflation by 0.5 percentage points at peak. |
| Policy Focus | Emphasis on maintaining restrictive monetary policy until inflation risks are mitigated. |
The forecast for the UK's Official Bank Rate remains unchanged at 4.75%, consistent with the previous outcome.
The next Official Bank Rate is set to be released on Thursday at 12:00 PM GMT.
USD - Final GDP q/q
The Final GDP q/q measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy, with a higher-than-forecast figure being favorable for the currency, as it is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.In Q3 2024, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8%, aligning with the advance estimate but moderating from the 3% growth observed in Q2. Personal consumption expenditures increased by 3.5%, marking the fastest pace since Q1 2023, primarily driven by a 5.6% rise in goods consumption and a 2.6% increase in services, both slightly revised downward. Government consumption growth remained unchanged at 5%. The contribution from net trade was slightly revised lower, at -0.57 percentage points, with exports revised to 7.5% and imports to 10.2%. Private inventories contributed a modest 0.11 percentage point reduction to overall growth, an improvement from the 0.17 percentage point drag in the advance estimate. Fixed investment grew by 1.7%, surpassing the initial forecast of 1.3%, with a notable 10.6% increase in equipment investment, while investments in structures and residential housing declined by 4.7% and 5%, respectively.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Q3 2024 GDP Growth | Expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8%, matching the advance estimate, down from 3% in Q2. |
| Personal Consumption | Increased by 3.5%, driven by a 5.6% rise in goods and 2.6% in services (slightly revised downward). |
| Government Consumption | Growth remained unchanged at 5%. |
| Net Trade Contribution | Revised to -0.57 percentage points, with exports at 7.5% and imports at 10.2%. |
| Private Inventories Impact | Contributed a modest 0.11 percentage point reduction, an improvement from the initial 0.17 percentage point drag. |
| Fixed Investment Growth | Increased by 1.7%, surpassing the 1.3% forecast, with a 10.6% rise in equipment investment. |
| Residential and Structural Investment | Declined by 4.7% and 5%, respectively. |
USD – Unemployment Claims
Unemployment Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time in the past week, with a lower-than-forecast figure being positive for the currency, as it signals overall economic health, with consumer spending closely linked to labor-market conditions, and is a key factor in monetary policy decisions.In the first week of December 2024, U.S. initial jobless claims surged by 17,000 to 242,000, marking the largest increase since October and significantly surpassing market expectations of a drop to 220,000. This rise in claims also led to a 15,000 increase in outstanding claims, which reached 1,886,000, not far from the three-year high of 1,908,000 recorded in early November. This data raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. labor market, challenging recent expectations that it remained tight and could prompt further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims climbed by 99,140 to 310,366, primarily driven by increases in California, New York, and Texas.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims (Week 1 Dec 2024) | Increased by 17,000 to 242,000, the largest rise since October. |
| Market Expectations | Surpassed expectations of a decrease to 220,000. |
| Outstanding Claims | Rose by 15,000 to 1,886,000, approaching the three-year high of 1,908,000 in early November. |
| Labor Market Concerns | Raised doubts about the strength of the U.S. labor market, challenging tight labor market expectations. |
| Federal Reserve Implications | Could influence potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. |
| Non-Seasonally Adjusted Claims | Increased by 99,140 to 310,366, driven by higher claims in California, New York, and Texas. |
The forecast for Unemployment Claims stands at 229,000, down from the previous outcome of 242,000.
The Final GDP quarter-over-quarter and Unemployment Claims data are scheduled for release on Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.
20th December 2024
Friday
Friday
This Friday, several high-impact economic data releases are expected, drawing significant market attention. The UK will report its Retail Sales m/m figures, offering insight into consumer spending trends. Meanwhile, Canada will unveil both Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m data, providing a snapshot of retail sector performance. In the US, the Core PCE Price Index m/m will be released, a critical measure of inflation closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. Markets are bracing for potential volatility as these data points are revealed.
GBP - Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales m/m measures the change in inflation-adjusted retail sales, with higher-than-forecast figures benefiting the currency, as it serves as a key indicator of consumer spending, which drives the majority of economic activity.
Retail sales volumes in Great Britain declined by 0.7% in October 2024, following a revised 0.1% rise in September, as low consumer confidence and Budget-related uncertainty weighed on spending. Non-food stores saw a 1.4% drop, with clothing stores leading the decline at 3.1%, attributed to a slowdown after strong end-of-season sales earlier in the year. Online sales values also fell by 1.2% compared to September, although they were up 5.0% year-on-year. Despite the monthly decrease, sales volumes rose 0.8% in the three months to October compared to the previous three months, and were 2.5% higher than the same period in 2023—the largest year-on-year growth since March 2022. However, sales volumes remained 1.5% below pre-pandemic levels. Retailers reported that broader economic pressures, including uncertainty around the 30 October Budget announcement, significantly impacted sales activity.
Retail sales volumes in Great Britain declined by 0.7% in October 2024, following a revised 0.1% rise in September, as low consumer confidence and Budget-related uncertainty weighed on spending. Non-food stores saw a 1.4% drop, with clothing stores leading the decline at 3.1%, attributed to a slowdown after strong end-of-season sales earlier in the year. Online sales values also fell by 1.2% compared to September, although they were up 5.0% year-on-year. Despite the monthly decrease, sales volumes rose 0.8% in the three months to October compared to the previous three months, and were 2.5% higher than the same period in 2023—the largest year-on-year growth since March 2022. However, sales volumes remained 1.5% below pre-pandemic levels. Retailers reported that broader economic pressures, including uncertainty around the 30 October Budget announcement, significantly impacted sales activity.
TL;DR
| Metric | Details |
|---|
| October 2024 Retail Sales m/m | Declined by 0.7% (following a revised 0.1% rise in September). |
| Non-Food Stores Decline | Fell by 1.4%; clothing stores led with a 3.1% drop due to post-seasonal sales slowdown. |
| Online Sales | Down 1.2% m/m but up 5.0% year-on-year. |
| 3-Month Comparison | Sales volumes increased by 0.8% compared to the prior three months. |
| Year-on-Year Growth | Sales volumes 2.5% higher than October 2023—the largest growth since March 2022. |
| Pre-Pandemic Levels | Sales volumes remained 1.5% below pre-pandemic levels. |
| Key Influences | Low consumer confidence and Budget-related uncertainty weighed heavily on spending. |
| Retailer Sentiment | Broad economic pressures, including the 30 October Budget announcement, impacted sales. |
The forecast for Retail Sales m/m stands at 0.5% compared to previous -0.7% outcome.
The next Retail Sales m/m is set to be released on Friday at 7:00 AM GMT.
CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m
Core Retail Sales m/m measures the change in retail sales, excluding automobiles. Higher-than-forecast figures are favorable for the currency, as automobile sales, which represent about 20% of retail sales but are volatile, can distort trends, making the Core data a more reliable indicator of spending patterns. Also known as Retail Sales Ex Autos.
In September 2024, Canada's retail sales excluding autos rose by 0.8% month-over-month, recovering from a revised 0.8% decline in August and exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% increase. Core retail sales, excluding gas stations and car dealerships, surged 1.4%, driven by strong food and beverage sales. Gasoline sales fell 2.3%, though volume-adjusted figures showed a 3.2% rise. Sales excluding autos grew by 0.9%, surpassing the expected 0.3% increase
In September 2024, Canada's retail sales excluding autos rose by 0.8% month-over-month, recovering from a revised 0.8% decline in August and exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% increase. Core retail sales, excluding gas stations and car dealerships, surged 1.4%, driven by strong food and beverage sales. Gasoline sales fell 2.3%, though volume-adjusted figures showed a 3.2% rise. Sales excluding autos grew by 0.9%, surpassing the expected 0.3% increase
TL;DR
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Retail Sales (Excluding Autos) | Rose by 0.8% m/m in September 2024, recovering from a revised 0.8% decline in August. |
| Forecast Comparison | Exceeded forecasts of a 0.5% increase. |
| Core Retail Sales | Surged 1.4%, driven by strong food and beverage sales. |
| Gasoline Sales | Declined 2.3%, but volume-adjusted figures rose 3.2%. |
| Overall Sales Excluding Autos | Increased by 0.9%, surpassing the expected 0.3% rise |
The forecast for Core Retail Sales m/m stands at 0.2% compared to previous 0.9% outcome.
CAD - Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales m/m measures the change in total retail sales. A result greater than the forecast is positive for the currency, as it is a key indicator of consumer spending, which drives most of the economy.
Canada's retail sales demonstrated strong momentum in October 2024, rising 0.7%—the fourth consecutive monthly increase—following a revised 0.4% gain in September, with sales reaching $66.9 billion. Growth was supported by gains in six of nine subsectors, particularly food and beverage (+3%) and general merchandise (+0.8%), while core retail sales, excluding fuel and vehicle-related sectors, rose 1.4%. In volume terms, retail sales climbed 0.8% in September and 1.3% in Q3, signaling resilience despite sector-specific declines in fuel and automotive sales.
Canada's retail sales demonstrated strong momentum in October 2024, rising 0.7%—the fourth consecutive monthly increase—following a revised 0.4% gain in September, with sales reaching $66.9 billion. Growth was supported by gains in six of nine subsectors, particularly food and beverage (+3%) and general merchandise (+0.8%), while core retail sales, excluding fuel and vehicle-related sectors, rose 1.4%. In volume terms, retail sales climbed 0.8% in September and 1.3% in Q3, signaling resilience despite sector-specific declines in fuel and automotive sales.
TL;DR
| Metric | Details |
|---|
| October 2024 Retail Sales | Increased by 0.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise. |
| September 2024 Revision | Revised gain of 0.4%. |
| Total Sales Value | Reached $66.9 billion. |
| Subsector Performance | Gains in 6 of 9 subsectors; food and beverage (+3%) and general merchandise (+0.8%) led growth. |
| Core Retail Sales | Rose by 1.4%, excluding fuel and vehicle-related sectors. |
| Retail Sales Volume | Climbed 0.8% in September and 1.3% in Q3. |
| Sector Weakness | Declines noted in fuel and automotive sales. |
| Economic Signal | Resilience observed despite sector-specific challenges. |
The forecast for Retail Sales m/m stands at 0.7% compared to previous 0.4% outcome.
The upcoming Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m is set to be released on Friday at 1:30 PM GMT.
USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m
Core PCE Price Index m/m measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. A result higher than forecast is favorable for the currency, as it is the Federal Reserve's primary inflation gauge. Inflation affects currency value, as rising prices typically prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to manage inflation.
In October, the Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-over-month, reflecting moderate inflation pressures, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Overall, the PCE Price Index increased by 0.2%, with goods prices declining by 0.1% and services prices rising by 0.4%. Personal income grew by $147.4 billion (0.6%), while disposable personal income (DPI) increased by $144.1 billion (0.7%). Real DPI rose 0.4%, indicating adjusted income growth after inflation. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.1%, driven by a 0.2% rise in services spending, particularly in health care, offsetting flat spending on goods. Personal savings reached $962.7 billion, with a saving rate of 4.4%. This data reflects steady income growth, moderate spending, and stable inflation dynamics in the economy.
TL;DR
In October, the Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-over-month, reflecting moderate inflation pressures, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Overall, the PCE Price Index increased by 0.2%, with goods prices declining by 0.1% and services prices rising by 0.4%. Personal income grew by $147.4 billion (0.6%), while disposable personal income (DPI) increased by $144.1 billion (0.7%). Real DPI rose 0.4%, indicating adjusted income growth after inflation. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.1%, driven by a 0.2% rise in services spending, particularly in health care, offsetting flat spending on goods. Personal savings reached $962.7 billion, with a saving rate of 4.4%. This data reflects steady income growth, moderate spending, and stable inflation dynamics in the economy.
TL;DR
| Metric | Details |
|---|
| Core PCE Price Index (Excluding Food & Energy) | Increased by 0.3% m/m in October, indicating moderate inflation pressures. |
| Overall PCE Price Index | Rose 0.2% m/m; goods prices fell 0.1%, while services prices rose 0.4%. |
| Personal Income | Increased by $147.4 billion (+0.6%). |
| Disposable Personal Income (DPI) | Grew by $144.1 billion (+0.7%). |
| Real DPI (Inflation-Adjusted) | Rose 0.4%, indicating net income growth after inflation. |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) | Increased 0.1%; driven by a 0.2% rise in services spending, offsetting flat goods spending. |
| Personal Savings | Reached $962.7 billion, with a saving rate of 4.4%. |
| Economic Summary | Reflects steady income growth, moderate spending, and stable inflation dynamics. |
The upcoming Core PCE Price Index m/m is scheduled for release on Friday at 1:30 PM GMT.
23rd December 2024
Monday
Monday
Canada is set to release its monthly GDP data on Monday, offering insight into the nation's economic performance. The report will provide a detailed look at the economy's growth or contraction in the most recent month, helping analysts and policymakers assess the current economic conditions and trends.
CAD - GDP m/m
The GDP m/m measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. Typically, a higher-than-forecast "actual" result is positive for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this indicator as it is the broadest measure of economic activity and a key gauge of the economy's overall health.
In Q3 2024, Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 1%, aligning with economists' expectations but below the Bank of Canada's 1.5% forecast. This growth was driven by increased household and government spending, particularly on new vehicles and financial services, while expenditures on food services and accommodation declined. Real GDP per capita decreased by 0.4%, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly decline. Business investment and exports contracted, with government spending rising for the third consecutive quarter. Housing investment saw its first increase in a year, propelled by a rebound in resale activity, despite downturns in new construction and renovations. Monthly GDP growth was modest at 0.1% in both September and October. In September, services-producing industries expanded by 0.2%, led by wholesale trade (+0.9%), retail trade (+1%), and transportation and warehousing (+0.7%), while information and cultural industries (-0.1%) and professional, scientific, and technical services (-0.2%) declined. Goods-producing industries contracted by 0.3%, with declines in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (-1.4%) and manufacturing (-0.3%), partially offset by a 0.4% increase in construction. These figures indicate a mixed economic performance, with consumer and government spending mitigating the effects of weak business investment and exports.
In Q3 2024, Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 1%, aligning with economists' expectations but below the Bank of Canada's 1.5% forecast. This growth was driven by increased household and government spending, particularly on new vehicles and financial services, while expenditures on food services and accommodation declined. Real GDP per capita decreased by 0.4%, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly decline. Business investment and exports contracted, with government spending rising for the third consecutive quarter. Housing investment saw its first increase in a year, propelled by a rebound in resale activity, despite downturns in new construction and renovations. Monthly GDP growth was modest at 0.1% in both September and October. In September, services-producing industries expanded by 0.2%, led by wholesale trade (+0.9%), retail trade (+1%), and transportation and warehousing (+0.7%), while information and cultural industries (-0.1%) and professional, scientific, and technical services (-0.2%) declined. Goods-producing industries contracted by 0.3%, with declines in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (-1.4%) and manufacturing (-0.3%), partially offset by a 0.4% increase in construction. These figures indicate a mixed economic performance, with consumer and government spending mitigating the effects of weak business investment and exports.
TL;DR
| Metric | Value/Details |
|---|
| Q3 2024 Annualized GDP Growth | 1% (aligned with expectations, below Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.5%) |
| Main Growth Drivers | Increased household & government spending, especially on vehicles & financial services |
| Declines in Spending | Expenditures on food services & accommodation declined |
| Real GDP per Capita | Decreased by 0.4%, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly decline |
| Business Investment | Contracted |
| Exports | Contracted |
| Government Spending | Increased for the third consecutive quarter |
| Housing Investment | Increased for the first time in a year, driven by resale activity |
| Monthly GDP Growth (Sept & Oct) | 0.1% in both September and October |
| September Sector Performance | Services: +0.2% (wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation up) Goods: -0.3% (mining, quarrying, oil & gas down) |
| Key Sector Declines in Sept | Mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction (-1.4%) Manufacturing (-0.3%) |
| Offsetting Sector Growth | Construction +0.4% |
| Overall Economic Performance | Mixed performance; consumer and government spending offset weak business investment and exports |
The forecast for monthly GDP growth stands at 0.2%, compared to the previous outcome of 0.1%.
The monthly GDP report is scheduled for release on Monday at 1:30 PM GMT.
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