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NZD USD - New Zealand dollar remains under pressure​

The New Zealand dollar is actively falling during morning trading, testing the level of 0.6265 for a breakdown. NZD USD is updating local lows from June 16, reacting to the recovery in demand for the "safe" US dollar, as well as to the aggravation of the geopolitical situation after the Lithuanian authorities announced restrictions on the transit of Russian goods to the territory of Kaliningrad.

Additional pressure on the positions of the trading instrument was exerted by rather weak macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Westpac Consumer Survey in Q2 2022 fell from 92.1 to 78.7 points, while analysts expected it to rise to 100 points. Global Dairy Trade index declined 1.3% after gaining 1.5% in the prior period, with only a 0.1% downward correction forecast. The volume of Exports from New Zealand in May rose from 6.16 billion to 6.95 billion dollars; however, against the backdrop of an increase in imports from 5.72 billion to 6.69 billion dollars, the trade deficit in May only increased from –9.29 billion to –9.52 billion dollars.

Resistance levels: 0.63, 0.635, 0.64, 0.645 | Support levels: 0.6244, 0.62, 0.6156, 0.61​

 

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GBP USD - rising inflation in the UK puts pressure on the pound​

This week, the GBP USD pair attempted to grow, having risen to the area of 1.2323, but today it has lost its position due to the release of negative UK macroeconomic statistics.

The May CPI was 0.7% MoM, slightly higher than the forecast (0.6%), and reached 9.1% YoY, which is a forty-year high. Fuel and food prices increased the most, while the population's purchasing power is declining. Last week, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the fifth time in a row, bringing them to 1.25% but so far, these actions have not had the desired effect. Inflation is increasing and, according to experts, by November, it will be able to exceed 11%, while the tightening of monetary policy increases the risks of a recession.

Under these conditions, the US currency looks more attractive, although the economic downturn due to the “hawkish” monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve also threatens this country. Today, the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, will address the US Congress with a semi-annual report in which he can outline his vision of the immediate economic prospects and further actions of the department.

Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2695, 1.2940 | Support levels: 1.2207, 1.1962, 1.1718​

 

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GBPUSD - UK inflation hits 40-year high​

The British pound is trading with multidirectional dynamics against the US currency, consolidating near the level of 1.2260. The day before, GBP/USD also closed with a minimal deviation from the opening levels of the daily session.

Investors are evaluating macroeconomic data from the Office for National Statistics, released yesterday, which reflected an increase in consumer price growth in May: the figure reached 9.1%, which is a record since 1982. The negative dynamics is due to the rapid increase in tariffs for electricity and raw materials in general, which have set a high since 1985, adding 22.1% to the cost against the background of the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the monthly inflation rate slowed down from 2.5% to 0.7%, and the Core CPI for the same period decreased from 6.2% to 5.9%, which turned out to be even slightly better than market forecasts of a reduction to 6.0%. In turn, the Retail Price Index in May showed an increase of 11.7%, accelerating from 11.1%, while the forecasts suggested an increase of only up to 11.4%; on a monthly basis, the indicator slowed down from 3.4% to 0.7%, while the market expected a decline to 0.5%. At the same time, according to officials of the Bank of England, consumer price growth may reach 11% by October, exacerbating the crisis in the cost of living for British families. An increase in the interest rate for the fifth time in a row to 1.25% has not yet had the desired effect on the economy, only increasing the risks of a recession. In turn, inflation, taking into account the costs of homeowners for housing maintenance, increased to 7.9% from 7.8% a month earlier.



Today, investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on business activity from S&P Global for June. Forecasts suggest that Manufacturing PMI will show a decrease from 54.6 to 53.7 points.

Resistance levels: 1.2328, 1.2400, 1.2457, 1.25 | Support levels: 1.2250, 1.2163, 1.2074, 1.2​

 

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USD TRY - The lira consolidates near record lows​

Experts believe that the rapid weakening of the lira is the result of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's intervention in monetary policy, who insists on lowering interest rates even in the face of rapid inflation, which reached 73.5% in May. So, at the end of 2021, the rate was corrected from 19% to 14%, and, according to the country's leader, this policy will continue soon. It is a powerful driver of the decline of the national currency, the rate of which at the beginning of the week reached the December minimum around 17.3600. Today, the Central Bank of Turkey will announce a decision on the weekly repo auction rate, which has not changed since December 2021. The prospects for monetary policy remain uncertain: it is obvious that a sharp increase in the interest rate should not be expected, while the current measures to combat rising inflation are not enough. Also, rapidly declining foreign exchange reserves are putting pressure on the authorities: last week, they adjusted by 1B dollars and now stand at 7B dollars, forcing the authorities to swap with Saudi Arabia.

Yesterday, at the opening of the daytime session, the US dollar showed an active decline but then quickly regained all lost ground with the support of the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, in the national Congress, which confirmed the regulator's commitment to the course of further tightening of monetary policy. At the same time, the official did not touch upon the topic of a possible economic recession, which still serves as a strong deterrent for the national currency.

Resistance levels: 17.4, 17.6, 17.75 | Support levels: 17.1, 17, 16.75, 16.6​

 

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Amazon - The price may grow​

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) formed, and a downward correction developed as the fourth wave (4). Now, the formation of the fifth wave (5) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (5) has formed, and a local correction has ended as the wave ii of 1.

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will grow to the levels of 171.15–188.15. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 101.

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AUD USD - the instrument is consolidating around 0.69​

The Australian dollar shows corrective growth, winning back the losses of the previous two "bearish" sessions. The instrument is again testing the level of 0.6900 for a breakout, receiving support from the growth of corrective moods in the US currency. Investors are in a hurry to fix their profits, and also react to the publication of rather weak macroeconomic statistics from the US.

The data released the day before by S&P Global pointed to a drop in the index of business activity in the US Services sector from 53.4 to 51.6 points, while analysts had expected growth to 53.5 points. The Manufacturing PMI fell sharply from 57.0 to 52.4 points, which also turned out to be significantly worse than the market's expectations of a reduction to 56.0 points. The Composite PMI in June corrected from 53.6 to 51.2 points, while the forecast was at the level of 53.7 points.

Additional pressure on the markets yesterday was exerted by the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Senate, where the official again noted significant risks of expanding inflationary pressure within the country, recognizing the possibility of a recession due to the regulator's "hawkish" position. At the same time, the Fed intends to further tighten monetary policy, trying to return the Consumer Price Index to the target level of 2%.

In Australia, against the background of a lack of energy obtained with the help of solar panels and wind generators, a fuel crisis is rapidly developing. Last week, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) announced it was suspending market and capping wholesale electricity prices until June 23 due to the impossibility of uninterrupted supplies to consumers. Due to the existing deficit, local companies had to buy oil and gas in the spot markets, which contributed to a sharp increase in costs. The government is ready to return to coal-fired infrastructure, as Australian Resources Minister Madeleine King said earlier, noting that the resumption of such enterprises will provide an additional 30% of energy capacity and improve the situation with the energy supply on the east coast.

Resistance levels: 0.695, 0.7, 0.705, 0.71 | Support levels: 0.69, 0.6849, 0.68, 0.675​

 

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USD CHF -The US dollar remains under pressure
The US dollar shows a weak corrective growth, trying to recover from a moderate decline for almost the entire week. USD CHF is testing 0.96 for a breakout, remaining close to the local lows of June 3. The pressure on the positions of the US currency remains against the backdrop of the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the US the day before, which reflected a quite expected drop in business activity in the Manufacturing and Services sector in June, which turned out to be noticeably worse than analysts' expectations. At the same time, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 17 showed a slight decrease from 231K to 229K, which was only slightly higher than the expected 227K.

According to a study by The Wall Street Journal, 44% of experts assess the rapid decline of the US economy over the next year as the most likely scenario against the backdrop of current inflation, which has reached a 40-year high. In January, a similar poll showed a result of 18%. Among the main reasons for a possible recession are problems in supply chains, the rapid rise in prices for raw materials, as well as geopolitical tensions caused by the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine. The negative scenario was also confirmed by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who noted that the return of the Consumer Price Index to the target level of 2.0% would be a slow process.

Today, investors will focus on statistics from the US on the dynamics of New Home Sales in May, as well as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June. No noteworthy statistics are expected in Switzerland today, but market participants are closely following the ongoing EU summit, which, among other things, discusses new measures of pressure on Russia in connection with a special military operation in Ukraine.

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into the descending plane. The price range is expanding, while remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, being in the oversold area, is trying to reverse upwards, which can be interpreted as a signal to corrective growth of USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9618, 0.97, 0.9762, 0.9847 | Support levels: 0.954, 0.9459, 0.94, 0.93

 

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EURUSD Surpasses the resistance
The EURUSD pair closed last Friday above 1.0550 level, to activate the bullish trend scenario on the intraday basis, organized inside the bullish channel that appears on the chart, waiting for positive trades in the upcoming sessions that target 1.0670 areas mainly.

Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaking 1.0550 followed by 1.0525 levels will stop the positive scenario and press on the price to turn to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0500 support and 1.0640 resistance.​

 

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The EURGBP tests the resistance​

The EURGBP pair formed correctional bullish rally to test the major resistance at 0.8720 followed by bouncing negatively towards 0.8580, to confirm keeping the domination of the bearish bias for the upcoming trading.

We notice the price attempt to crawl below the moving average 55, also, stochastic begins to provide the negative momentum to assist to renew the negative attempts, to expect reaching 0.8510 followed by targeting 38.2% Fibonacci correction level near 0.8410.

 

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EURJPY gets new negative momentum

The EURJPY pair kept its negative stability below 144.25 resistance, to reinforce the chances of forming correctional bearish trades in the near term and medium term period, while stochastic exit from the overbought areas allows us to gather the negative momentum to ease the mission breaking 141.5 obstacle and attempt to reach the first main target at 140.

The expected trading range for today is between 143.1 and 140.9.​

 

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Crude Oil Market Update​

Brent oil price shows some bearish bias to hint heading to decline in the upcoming sessions, motivated by stochastic negativity, making the bearish bias suggested for today conditioned by the price stability below 110.10, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, noting that our main waited target is located at 105.05.

The expected trading range for today is between 106.50 support and 112.20 resistance.

 

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The NZDUSD pair tested the intraday bearish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart and started to rebound bearishly from there, to keep the bearish trend scenario active, supported by stochastic negativity, waiting to visit 0.6210 mainly.

Breaking 0.6290 will ease the mission of achieving the waited target, noting that it is important to hold below 0.6325 to continue the expected decline. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6240 support and 0.6340 resistance.

 

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Crude Oil Market Update
Brent oil price shows some bearish bias to hint heading to decline in the upcoming sessions, motivated by stochastic negativity, making the bearish bias suggested for today conditioned by the price stability below 110.10, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, noting that our main waited target is located at 105.05.

The expected trading range for today is between 106.50 support and 112.20 resistance.

 

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The EURJPY repeats the negative closings​

The EURJPY pair repeated the negative closings below 144.25 recorded high, which forms strong obstacle against the attempt to resume the bullish attack for now, which allows us to keep the correctional bearish overview for the near term and medium term period.

The above chart shows stochastic continuous negative waves, to increase the chances of gathering the negative momentum, to keep waiting to touch the negative stations at 142.20 followed by reaching 140.90.

The expected trading range for today is between 143.70 and 142.20​

 

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The USDCHF resumes the decline.
The USDCHF pair achieved temporary gains yesterday and approached 0.9630 level, but it bounced bearishly to reach the thresholds of 0.9525 level, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid and active, waiting to break the last level to confirm rallying towards 0.9400 as a next station.

We remind you that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 0.9630.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9500 support and 0.9600 resistance.​

 

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The GBPJPY is slow.​

The GBPJPY pair formed slow trades recently, affected by the contradiction of the moving average 55 positivity against stochastic negative momentum signals, to consolidate near 166.40 level today.

Note that the stability of the mentioned barrier will increase the chances of renewing the correctional bearish attempts that might target 164.80 and 164.10 levels, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will allow it to renew the positive attempts to move towards 167.30 direct, followed by reaching 168.70 recorded high.

 

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The USDCHF pair reached few pips away from our waited target at 0.9525, and continues to move inside the intraday bearish channel that appears on the chart, which supports the chances of surpassing the mentioned level and open the way to achieve negative targets that extend to 0.9400.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period unless breaching 0.9630 and hold above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9500 support and 0.9600 resistance.​

 

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The EURJPY settles below the high​

No change to the EURJPY pair’s correctional bearish track, fluctuating below 144.25 recorded high, to notice crawling towards 142.80 to reinforce the chances of resuming the previously suggested correctional bearish attack.

We remind you that breaking the initial support at 142.20 will force it to suffer more losses that reach 140.90 followed by 140. The expected trading range for today is between 143.70 and 142.20​

 

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USDCAD, H4
On the four-hour chart, at the support level of 1.2838, a Morning Star candlestick analysis pattern is forming, signaling a possible reversal of quotes towards resistance at 1.3039, and now there is a Rising Three Methods pattern. In the current situation, a possible scenario is the uptrend of quotations to 1.3039, consolidation above which will allow the "bulls" to head higher to the range of 1.3200–1.3411. An alternative scenario is likely if the "bears" overcome the key support level for buyers at 1.2838; then the price may go lower, to the area of 1.2640–1.2404.

USDCAD, D1
On the daily chart, a Bull Flag price pattern is forming, which is currently probably in the process of completing the formation of the Flag itself, from which an impulse upward movement should follow. The downward consolidation of the asset is accompanied by the construction of the Falling Three Methods trend continuation pattern at the level of 1.2979. In addition, the previous candle below 1.2898 formed a Long-Legged Doji pattern, which is a sign of pressure from both "bears" and "bulls", but its appearance at the top still indicates the supremacy of the sellers. A likely reversal point in this situation is the support level at 1.2838, from where the price can recover with an impulse movement up to 1.3039, the overcoming of which will allow buyers to move higher to the resistance zone of 1.3200–1.3411.

Support levels: 1.2838, 1.2640, 1.2404 | Resistance levels: 1.3039, 1.3200, 1.3411.

 

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The USDTRY pair faced strong negative pressures recently, which pushed it to exit the bullish track by crawling below 16.86 support line, suffering some losses by declining towards 16.02 that forms 50% Fibonacci correction level.

The current positive rebound hints the attempts to gather the additional negative momentum, to expect consolidating below the broken support and start forming new negative trades to target 16.3 followed by repeating the pressure on 16 barrier.

The expected trading range for today is between 16.725 and 16.3. The expected trend for today: Bearish​