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Brent Crude Oil: global recession risks increase pressure on the instrument​

Brent Crude Oil prices are falling to 101.50 amid investors' fears about the global economy going into recession due to the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine and persistently high inflation in developed countries. Another negative factor for hydrocarbon prices is the discussion by the United States and G7 allies of setting a ceiling price for Russian oil at 40–60 dollars per barrel to reduce energy sales revenues to the Russian Federation's national budget as part of the sanctions policy.

Thus, we can assume that the fall of the trading instrument will continue in the medium term, and the target for sales will be the March low of 98.00.

The long-term trend in the oil market remains upward. The key support for the trend is at 98; after holding it, the growth will continue with the target at the June high. Otherwise, the asset may decline to 91.1 and 86.3.

The medium-term trend is downwards. This week, the target zone 2 (108.93–108.06) was broken, which suggests a further decline in prices towards zone 3 (100.23–99.36). The key resistance of the trend is shifting to 110.16–109.31, from where it is worth considering new short positions.

Resistance levels: 107.75, 119.10, 125.65 | Support levels: 101.50, 98., 91.1

 

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The pair is trading in the descending channel for the last 3 weeks. The downtrend scenario is valid as long as the bears can keep the price within the channel line and below the 50 moving average.

Support: 0.6124 | Resistance: 0.6195 - 0.6251

Trading Idea:
Sell targeting 0.6124 | SL: 0.626​

 

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USDJPY Technical Analysis

The currency pair is trading sideways below 137. Bears are struggling with breaking the 50 MA which supports the continuation of the bullish trend. Considering the MACD divergence breaking the 134.74 will add pressure on the price to decline toward 131.49 before any new attempt to rise.

Support: 134.74 - 131.49 | Resistance: 137



Trading idea:
Sell targeting 134.7 - 134.26 | SL: 137​

 

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XAUUSD - gold stays at record lows​

Gold positions came under pressure on Friday amid the publication of a stronger report on the US labor market: the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.6%, while Employment Change rose by 372 thousand, well ahead of the projected 268 thousand, which allows investors to hope for continued tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch indicator, more than 92% of traders are confident in the "hawkish" rhetoric at the next meeting of the regulator, as well as in the adjustment of the value by 75 basis points at the end of this month.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is expanding, making way to new record lows for the "bears". MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic has reached its lows and is trying to reverse upwards, indicating risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1752.87, 1775, 1784.31, 1800 | Support levels: 1730, 1720, 1700

 

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Cisco Systems - technical analysis​

The shares of Cisco Systems Inc., the largest manufacturer and supplier of network equipment for holdings and telecommunications companies, are correcting around 43. On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a global downward channel with dynamic boundaries of 32–44, having reached the resistance line yesterday after an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the annual low of 41.

On the four-hour chart, the local movement within the channel is clamped into a Triangle pattern, the upper limit of which coincides with the global range resistance line at 44, which the quotes will try to break and reach the beginning of the price gap of May 18 around 47.8.

Technical indicators remain in the state of a sell signal, although indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range has begun to narrow, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars in the sell zone.​

 

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USDCAD - Technical analysis​

H4
On the 4-hour chart, there is a downtrend in a short-term "bearish" trend, which is confirmed by a series of Three Black Crows patterns at the level of 1.3036. Currently, an Engulfing pattern has formed at 1.2932, which includes a Shooting Star candlestick. The combination of these figures signals the systematic pressure of sellers. The most likely scenario is a decline to the support level of 1.2932, overcoming which will allow the "bears" to strengthen the downtrend up to the level of 1.2534, while fixing the price above the resistance level of 1.3036 will allow the "bulls" to continue moving towards the area of 1.3118–1.3323.

D1
A Double Top price pattern has formed on the daily chart. In addition, an Evening Star reversal pattern formed at the resistance level of 1.3036, after which a Shooting Star pattern appeared, which strengthens the "bearish" mood in the market. In the current situation, the scenario with the decline of the asset to the support zone of 1.2932–1.2534 seems more likely. If the "bulls" still manage to hold the key support level of 1.2857, where the Neck line of the Double Top price pattern passes, buyers will have the opportunity to restore quotes back to the range of 1.3036–1.3323.

Support levels: 1.2932, 1.2857, 1.2737, 1.2534 | Resistance levels: 1.3036, 1.3118, 1.3323

 

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Verizon Communications - technical analysis​

On the daily chart of the asset, the quotes are trading below the global channel 51–56 and completing the reverse test of the range support line passed. On the four-hour chart, it is clearly seen that corrective growth is developing in the form of a Triangle pattern. Inside the figure, the price has reached the support line at 50 and is preparing to reverse upward, which, in turn, will signal the end of the correction and the continuation of the global decline with the target around 45.5.

Nevertheless, the readings of technical indicators reflect the continuation of local growth: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the buying zone.​

 

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USDCHF - the US dollar holds on to yearly highs​

The Swiss currency is slightly weakening, and the current trend may last until the middle of the week, as there are no macroeconomic publications that could affect its dynamics. Now the pair USDCHF is trading within an uptrend around 0.9785.

The franc is losing value after the publication of the report of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on employment, according to which the unemployment rate in the country in June fell to 2.0% from 2.1% a month earlier, and compared to the same month last year, the reduction in the number of unemployed amounted to 39.310K or 29.8%. Thus, the stabilization of the indicator continues for the sixth consecutive month, acting as a driver for strengthening the national currency, weakened by the recent tightening of monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the sideways channel, heading towards its upper border. The technical indicators reversed and issued a renewed buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram formed the first bar above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.9820, 1 | Support levels: 0.9695, 0.954​

 

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AUDUSD - Strong labor market data supported the USD​

Currently, quotes are declining again, as the US currency is supported by positive June data on the national labor market: the unemployment rate remained at the same level of 3.6%, and employment increased by 372K, which is significantly higher than the projected 268K. At the same time, the average hourly wage increased by 5.1% year-on-year, also exceeding the forecast at 5.0%. In general, statistics show that the labor market is successfully resisting the pressure of the current tightening of monetary policy and gives the US Fed another argument in favor of a new serious interest rate hike this month, which may support the national currency.

The price is testing the lower boundary of the descending channel. If the instrument consolidates below the 0.6803 mark, the decline in quotations will continue to the levels of 0.6713 and 0.6591. If the quotes manage to overcome the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (0.6900), the upward trend will continue to 0.708.

Technical indicators signal the continuation of the downward trend: the Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, the MACD is stable in the negative zone, and the Stochastic is reversing upwards, but its growth potential is seen to be limited.

Resistance levels: 0.6900, 0.7080, 0.7202 | Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6713, 0.6591​

 

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USDJPY Technical Analysis​

Bulls are trading the USD JPY above 137, which supports the price now. RSI and Stochastic have left the overbought zone, that lead the market to test 137 support after the break-out. The bullish trend is valid with the price fluctuation above the 50 MA and 137.74 deck.

Trade idea
Buy at 137.3, Target: Open | SL: 134.26​

 

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Nvidia technical analysis​

On the daily chart of the asset, a global downward channel is developing with dynamic boundaries of 130–230. Currently, the price has reached its support line, breaking the 100% underlying Fibonacci extension trend level at 160 and holding below. The 4-hour chart clearly shows that the downtrend could continue to the full 161.8% Fibonacci extension trend at 83. Before that, the trading instrument will need to break the year’s low of 140.

Technical indicators hold a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new bars with a downtrend.​

 

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EURUSD - the pair hit an all-time low​

The EURUSD pair is actively losing value and yesterday reached a historical milestone, which coincides with a 20-year low at 1 the value of the euro caught with the value of the US dollar against the backdrop of a tense economic situation in the EU, where macroeconomic indicators are declining for the second quarter in a row. Today, statistics from Germany for July will be published, and, according to forecasts, the index of current economic conditions from ZEW may correct to -34.5 points from -27.6 points, and the economic sentiment index risks dropping to 2020 levels around –38.3 points, which puts pressure on the single currency.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, reaching its support line yesterday. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: indicator Alligator’s fast EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed another down bar in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.015, 1.037 | Support levels: 1, 0.99​

 

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Google - technical analysis​

On the daily chart of the asset, a downwards channel forms with dynamic boundaries 2450–2000, within which the price has almost reached the resistance line and is preparing to start a reversal. On a four-hour chart, the ascending wave looks like a classic Flag pattern with boundaries of 2450.0–2150.0, which increases the likelihood of forming a downward impulse towards 2000.

Technical indicators do not yet react to the current reversal and keep a local buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars above the transition level.​

 

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MasterCard - Technical analysis​

On the daily chart of the asset, a global sideways corridor of 306–380 is developing, within which the price has approached its lower border. There has not yet been a full-fledged attempt to consolidate below it but the likelihood of this remains quite high. The four-hour chart of the asset shows that if the quotes fix below the support level of 308, it is possible to continue to decline and reach an even stronger level of 280.

It is confirmed by the readings of technical indicators, which, working out a local correction, keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new bars below the transition level.​

 

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The shares of Meta Platforms Inc., which owns the world's largest social network Facebook, are moving within a downtrend around 163. On the daily chart of the asset, a global Triangle pattern is forming with local extremes at 18 and 150, and a sharp narrowing of the formation range may indicate that the price is entering its last third, where a signal to exit it will develop.

On the four-hour chart of the asset, the quotes are completing the formation of another ascending wave, after which they can break through the lower border of the pattern around 155 since the probability of a downside implementation is much higher. Technical indicators confirm the possibility of a decline, reversing downwards: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars in the sell zone.​

 

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EURUSD - the euro is held near the parity level with the US dollar​

The European currency shows multidirectional trading dynamics, consolidating near the key level of 1.0000, which has not yet been actively tested. The day before, the instrument also traded near the parity level and even tried to fall to the level of 0.9990 for some time; however, the "bulls" quickly regained the lost positions. The euro is certainly receiving strong technical support near this psychological level, but the pressure on the single currency only intensifies as the region's economic outlook deteriorates. The last time the euro traded at parity against the US dollar was in December 2002.

Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics put additional pressure on the positions of the single currency, intensifying talks about a possible recession in the European economy: ZEW Survey on Economic Sentiment fell sharply in July from –28.0 to –51.1 points, while analysts expected a decline to only –32.8 points. In turn, ZEW Survey on Current Situation in Germany over the same period fell from –27.6 to –45.8 points, while the forecast was –34.5 points, and the Economic Sentiment index fell from –28.0 to –53.8 points, which also turned out to be significantly worse than market forecasts at the level of –38.3 points. Today, investors are focused on statistics on the dynamics of consumer prices in Germany in June, as well as May data on the dynamics of industrial production in the eurozone.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate active decrease. The price range is expanding, making way to new record lows for the "bears". MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic retains downward direction but is located in close proximity to its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold EUR in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.005, 1.01, 1.015, 1.02 | Support levels: 1, 0.995, 0.99

 

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USDJPY - Currency pair continues to rise​

The downward dynamics of the national currency are developing despite the measures to purchase assets for record amounts taken by the Bank of Japan. However, there is still hope for early stabilization of the yen: the elections to the country's parliament ended yesterday, in which the party of the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida won. The government's approval rating rose to a record high of 63.2%, which means that aggressive monetary policy is likely to continue. Also, investors are encouraged by positive macroeconomic indicators: the corporate goods price index in June rose by 0.7%, which is higher than the 0.5% expected by analysts, and by 9.2% YoY, which exceeds the forecast of 8.8% and only 0.1% lower than last month.

The trading instrument is moving within the global uptrend, holding slightly below the year's high at 137.40. Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range remains wide, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new bars high in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 137.44, 140 | Support levels: 134.9, 131.45​

 

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Adobe Systems - technical analysis​

On the daily chart of the asset, the formation of a downtrend continues, which may continue after the breakdown of the global year's low at 350. On a four-hour chart, the price forms a local Flag pattern with the boundaries of 360 – 400, which increases the likelihood of a global downward movement after the breakdown of its support line.



Technical indicators reflect a possible continuation of the global decline: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.​

 

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AUDUSD - Australian dollar develops a weak upward correction​

The Australian dollar is showing an uncertain rise, building on the corrective momentum that was formed on Tuesday, July 12, when AUDUSD traded at record lows of June 2020. The instrument is testing the level of 0.677 for a breakout, receiving support from strong macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. In turn, the growing demand for the US currency prevents the emergence of a more active "bullish" dynamics.

Trade Idea
Sell, TP 0.6710 | SL: 0.6874​

 

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EURUSD - the pair is preparing to consolidate below the historical low

Conflicting macroeconomic statistics from the EU do not allow the euro to interrupt the protracted decline: inflation in Germany in June was 7.6%, which is the same as in May, and CPI in France rose not as much as analysts expected but still amounted to 5.8%, up from 5.2% in May, while the same figure for Spain reached a record high of 10.2%, up sharply from 8.7% in May. With such a significant increase in local values, the composite price index of the EU countries will also increase significantly, preventing a possible reversal and growth of the euro.

The trading instrument moves within the global downward channel, near the support line. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator expand the range of fluctuations in the direction of decline, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.015, 1.037 | Support levels: 0.998, 0.98​