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USDJPY - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. Now, the fifth wave v of 3 is forming, within which a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of v, and the wave (v) of v is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will grow to the area of 150 – 152. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 143.31.

 

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USDCHF Hits the Target​

The USDCHF pair succeeded to touch our main waited target at 1.0064 and found solid resistance there, to rebound bearishly and head towards achieving expected decline in the upcoming sessions, targeting testing 0.9910 followed by 0.9860 levels mainly. Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaching 1.0064 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to achieve more gains on the short term and medium term basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9900 support and 1.0064 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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XAUUSD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum. Now, the development of the fifth wave (5) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (5) has formed, and a local correction has ended as the wave (ii) of i of 1 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow to the area of 1808.78–1861.3. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1613.92.

 

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EURUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the fifth downward wave of the higher level (5) of А develops, within which the wave 5 of (5) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of 5 of (5) is developing, within which the wave (i) of v of 5 formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave (ii) of v of 5.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.947 – 0.93. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9997.

 

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GBPUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level V of (V) develops, within which the wave (5) of V forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (5) has formed, a local correction has ended as the fourth wave 4 of (5), and the development of the wave 5 of (5) has started, within which the wave iii of 5 is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.02 – 1. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1501.

 

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AUDUSD resumes the decline​

The AUDUSD pair bounced downwards clearly after approaching the horizontal resistance at 0.6360, to head towards resuming the main bearish trend within the bearish channel that appears on the chart, on its way to visit 0.6165 followed by 0.6090 levels as main negative targets. Note that breaching 0.6270 might push the price to attempt to recover again, to head towards testing 0.6385 areas initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6165 support and 0.6280 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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BTCUSD - Market Uncertainty Persists​

The BTCUSD pair had a rather volatile week, dropping to four-week lows around 18190 but then returned to 19940. However, quotes generally remain in the range of 19000–19400.

The sharp decline in prices was due to the release of September data on inflation in the US, which remained at very high levels: the consumer price index reached 8.2%, and Core CPI – 6.6%, which forced the US Federal Reserve to adopt “hawkish” rhetoric, strengthening the position of the American currency against the main competitors. However, the downward dynamics were short-term, and soon the trading instrument regained lost positions.

The price chart is probably forming a Downwards Triangle, and the trading instrument is close to exiting it. If it consolidates below the 19000–18750 zone, the decline will continue to 18000 (Murrey [–1/8]), 16900 (Fibonacci extension 100), and if 19531.25 (Murrey [1/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is broken up resume by 20312.5 (Murrey [2/8]) and 21093.7 (Murrey [3/8]).

Resistance levels: 19531.2, 20312.5, 21093.7, 21875 | Support levels: 18750, 18000, 16900​

 

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XAGUSD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed, and the development of the third wave (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming, within which the wave (iii) of i has formed, and a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of i.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 21.20–22.47. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 18.07.

 

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AUDUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, and a downward correction develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C is developing, within which the wave (iii) of iii is forming, and a local correction is developing as the wave (iv) of iii.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6091–0.5900. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6551.

 

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XAUUSD - The "bulls" reduce positions in the asset​

The situation on the gold market is still ambiguous: historically, the precious metal has always been a refuge in case of geopolitical tensions, but at the moment, its quotes are under pressure from high interest rates and, as a result, a growing dollar. The hawkish monetary policy provokes an increase in government bonds yield, which are more reliable than gold, and high rates (4% on 10-year bonds) additionally attract investor capital into bonds. Also, since the price of gold is denominated in dollars, the latter's growth will always make the metal cheaper, which is now observed.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving in a downward channel, approaching the support line.

Resistance levels: 1672, 1730 | Support levels: 1620, 1570​

 

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NZDUSD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, and a downward correction ended as the wave (B), within which the wave C of (B) formed. Now, the development of the wave (C) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (C) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.6166–0.6465. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.5520.

 

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USDCAD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 forms, within which the wave (1) of 5 formed, the correctional wave (2) of 5 ended, and the wave (3) of 5 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (3) is forming, within which a local correction has ended as the fourth wave iv of 3, and the wave v of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.41 – 1.43. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3645.

 

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USDCHF - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first upward wave of the higher level (1) of 3 forms, within which the wave 5 of (1) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 1.02 – 1.03. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9908.

 

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AUDUSD - Australian labor market under pressure​

Today's report on the labor market did not support the Australian currency: unemployment in the country remained at 3.5%, and its growth compared to August was less than 0.1%. The number of unemployed increased by 9.0K to 499.4K people, and their percentage among young people decreased to 7.9%, while the employment-to-population ratio corrected to 64.2% from 64.3% a month earlier. In turn, full-time employment increased by 13.3K people, and part-time employment decreased by 12.4K people, reinforcing the negative trend of previous months, as citizens strive for stable work in the face of rapid inflation and higher interest rates on loans.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the local channel, holding near the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept significantly from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is deep in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.632, 0.65 | Support levels: 0.62, 0.605​

 

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EURUSD Under the Negative Pressure​

EURUSD pair faced clear negative pressure yesterday to break 0.979 level and close the daily candlestick below it, which pushes the price to trade with expected negativity in the upcoming sessions, especially after exiting the intraday bullish channel that appears on the chart, to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 0.9700 and extend to 0.9630 after surpassing the previous level.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, supported by moving below the EMA50, noting that breaching 0.9790 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to recover again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9660 support and 0.9830 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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Gold - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction developed as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum. Now, the development of the fifth wave (5) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (5) has formed, and a local correction ended as the wave (ii) of i of 1 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the pair XAUUSD will grow to the area of 1808.78–1861.30. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1613.92.

 

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EURUSD - EU leaders agree on joint gas purchases​

The instrument continues to slowly decline, despite the incoming positive signals after the summit of EU leaders yesterday, at which, according to the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, they managed to reach a common agreement in the field of energy security. In particular, the prospect of creating a cartel of European gas buyers, which will be engaged in the purchase and subsequent gas distribution to all countries of the region, is being considered. At the initial stage, it is planned to allocate up to 15% of the total volume of purchases to the organization, and in case of its successful work, increase this figure. As for the macroeconomic component, inflation growth to 9.9% in September was already priced in, thanks to which the market reaction was restrained, and investors are preparing for the next increase in interest rates by members of the European Central Bank (ECB).

The trading instrument moves within the downward global channel near the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 0.987, 1.01 | Support levels: 0.9700, 0.9537​

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis​

The GBPUSD pair resumes its negative trades to support the continuation of the bearish trend for the rest of the day, reminding you that our main targets begin at 1.1055 and extend to 1.0920 as next main stations, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, while the price needs to hold below 1.1290 to continue the expected decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1080 support and 1.1220 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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XAGUSD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed, and the development of the third wave (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is developing, within which the wave (iii) of I has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of I, and the development the wave (v) of i has started.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 21.2 – 22.47. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 18.22.

 

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GBPUSD - Under the pressure of the domestic political crisis in the UK​

This week can be seen as the official start of a new race for prime minister after incumbent and Conservative Party chief Liz Truss announced her resignation amid widespread criticism of her proposed tax reform. Currently, only one real favorite is known – the former finance minister Rishi Sunak, supported by most current officials (178 out of 357 deputies). In turn, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who announced his readiness to compete for the post on Friday, has already fallen out of the race, having failed to enlist the support of at least 100 party members and gained only 59 votes. The electoral process must be completed by October 28. Today will be presented data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, from which analysts expect a continued decline from 48.4 points to 48 points and from 50 points to 49.6 points, respectively.

The trading instrument moves within the long-term downward channel toward the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.148, 1.18 | Support levels: 1.1178, 1.0925​