Video | Market Technical | Solid ECN

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD - The probability of decline remains.​

On the daily chart, the descending wave of the higher-level A continues, in which the fifth wave (5) of A is formed. At the moment, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (5) is developing, which includes the third wave iii of 5 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.947 - 0.93. The level of 0.9859 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY - US dollar holds near its record highs​

The American currency continues its moderate growth during the Asian session, again testing the psychological level of 145 for a breakout. The US dollar is in high demand among investors in anticipation of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. It is predicted that by the end of the year the regulator will make at least one more large increase in the indicator, and the adjustment can immediately reach 1.25%. In turn, the Bank of Japan does not change its wait-and-see tactics, as it fears the return of the previous deflationary risks.

The published macroeconomic statistics from Japan put additional pressure on the yen. Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in the third quarter showed a decrease from 9.0 points to 8.0 points, while analysts expected growth to 11.0 points, and the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in September fell from 51points to 50.8 points with a forecast of 51.5 points.

US investors will be watching today for data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), which reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry and is calculated based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. The indicator is projected to decrease from 52.8 points to 52.2 points. In addition, during the day there will be a number of speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve.

Resistance levels: 145, 146, 147, 148 | Support levels: 144, 142.54, 141.5, 140.78​

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD - The probability of decline remains.​

On the daily chart, there is the fifth wave of the higher level (V), which includes the construction of the wave V of (V). At the moment, the fifth wave of the lower level (5) of V is developing, in which wave 3 of (5) was formed and the local correction as wave 4 of (5) was completed.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.02 – 1. The level of 1.1731 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD - Trade in the range of 0.639 – 0.6525​

The long-term trend is downward. As part of the decline, the traders reached a strong support level of 0.6390, and after an unsuccessful attempt to break through it, the AUDUSD pair corrected to the resistance area of 0.6525; however, the "bulls" failed to develop an upward impetus, forming a trading range of 0.6390–0.6525. The decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the interest rate, which is expected tomorrow at 05:30 (GMT+2), can take the trading instrument out of this zone.

The mid-term trend is downward. Last week the traders broke through the target zone 3 (0.6536–0.6516), and now the area of 0.6336–0.6316 serves as a new reference point for quotes. The key resistance of the trend is shifting to the levels of 0.6561–0.6543. If this resistance is reached within the upward correction, it will be possible to consider new short positions with the first target at last week's low at 0.6368.

Resistance levels: 0.6525, 0.67 | Support levels: 0.639, 0.626​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Apple - The price is in correction, the probability of growth is maintained.​

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 has been formed, the downward correction has ended as the fourth wave 4, and the formation of the fifth wave 5 has begun. At the moment, the first leading wave of the lower level (1) of 5 has appeared and the local correction as a wave (2) of 5 is nearing completion, in which the wave C of (2) ends.

If the assumption is correct, after its completion, the price of the asset will rise to the area of 183.14–200. The level of 129.5 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCHF - Upward dynamics — in the future​

The Swiss economy, in turn, shows contradictory data: the consumer price index in September adjusted by -0.2%, which turned out to be significantly lower than the forecast of analysts, who assumed an increase in inflation by 0.2%. Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from procure.ch ., reflecting the level of activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector and characterizing the degree of confidence of large businesses in the economic development of the country, on the contrary, adjusted to 57.1 points, improving the forecast of 54.5 points. Nevertheless, the Swiss National Bank is not yet ready to move to a tougher monetary policy, since consumer prices show a steady decline, and so being at one of the lowest levels (3.3%) among developed countries.

The long-term uptrend remains. On Friday, the trading participants broke out the resistance level of 0.9850, and now the target for long positions is the 0.9950 mark, overcoming which will become a catalyst for the growth of the USD/CHF pair to the June highs of 1.0040.

The mid-term uptrend held up last week. Market participants tried to break the key support of the 0.9822–0.9809 trend, but the trading week closed above this area. Now the instrument shows an upward trend, and buyers are trying to break out the target zone 3 (0.9903–0.9890). If successful, the new target will be the area of 1.0049–1.0034. If the target zone 3 is held by sellers, it is likely that the 0.9809 level will be overcome, and the medium-term trend will change to a downward one. In this case, it is worth considering short positions with a target in the area of 0.9683 – 0.967.

Resistance levels: 0.995, 1.004 | Support levels: 0.985, 0.975​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY - The possibility of growth remains.​

On the daily chart, the development of the third wave of the higher level 3 continues, in which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 was formed and the downward correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. At the moment, the fifth wave v of 3 is being formed, in which the local correction as wave (iv) of v has ended and wave (v) of v is being built.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will rise to the area of 150 – 152. The level of 140.35 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

NZDUSD - Candlestick analysis​

H4
On the four-hour chart, there is a formation of a Double Bottom price pattern, which is reversal and indicates that the asset has reached a local Bottom. In addition, at the key support level of 0.5593, a Morning Star candlestick analysis pattern formed, which also signals that the "bulls" have seized the initiative, and at around 0.5653, a Hammer reversal pattern is formed. To continue the uptrend according to the Double Bottom pattern, the quotes need to test the level of 0.5653, after which, most likely, the asset will continue to recover by impulse movement to the resistance level of 0.5845, overcoming which will mean the retreat of the "bears" from their positions and continued movement to the zone of 0.6149−0.6379. An alternative scenario is possible if the sellers overcome the support level of 0.5593, then the negative dynamics may increase to the area of 0.5348−0.5022.

D1
On the daily chart, at the level of 0.5653, there is the formation of a "bullish" Inverted Hammer pattern, which warns market participants about a possible price reversal, and the Hammer and Morning Star candlestick analysis patterns, the combination of which indicates the transition of the initiative to the "bulls". More likely at the moment is a scenario with the continuation of the uptrend to the resistance level of 0.5845, the overcoming of which will allow buyers to head higher in the range of 0.6149−0.6379.

Support levels: 0.5593, 0.5348, 0.5022 | Resistance levels: 0.5845, 0.6149, 0.6379​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Silver - The pair may grow.​

On the daily chart, the downward correction of the higher level as the second wave (2) completed, in which wave C of (2) appeared. At the moment, the development of the third wave (3) has begun, in which the entry first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is being formed.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will rise to the area of 22.47–25.40. The level of 17.97 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

PayPal - The price is in correction; the probability of growth is maintained.

On the daily chart, an upward wave of the higher level A has been formed and a downward correction is observed as wave B. At the moment, the wave (A) of B has formed and the upward correction of the lower level continues as the wave (B) of B, in which the wave A of (B) has formed and the wave B of (B) is nearing completion.

If the assumption is correct, after its completion, the price of the asset will rise to the area of 158.6 – 186.7. The level of 67.4 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY​

The American currency is strengthening against the yen but weakening against the euro and the pound.

The focus of investors is the September statistics from the eurozone and the USA. Thus, the index of business activity in the industrial sector of European countries decreased from 49.6 points to 48.4 points, while the same indicator in Germany fell from 49.1 points to 47.8 points amid a decrease in consumer demand for goods, as well as restrictions production due to rising electricity costs. However, the macroeconomic data did not exert any serious pressure on the positions of the euro, as the observed trend is expected and already priced in by the bidders. In turn, the index of business activity in American industry from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) in September reached its lowest level since May 2020, falling from 52.8 points to 50.9 points instead of 52.2 points expected by experts. Thus, the indicators may continue negative dynamics in the near future due to the intensification of the global economic crisis. Also, additional pressure on the sector in the long term will continue to be exerted by the tightening of monetary policy by the US Fed. Earlier, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, confirmed the readiness of the financial authorities for further interest rate hikes even in the face of signs of a slowdown in inflation, but at the same time admitted that low economic growth and higher unemployment would be a side effect of these actions. In turn, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, said that recent changes in global supply chains, demographics and trade relations could make inflation more volatile in the future, which will force the country's financial authorities and other world central banks to also quickly respond to its changes. Today, during the day, investors expect the publication of August data on the number of open vacancies in the JOLTS market, where the value is predicted to decrease from 11.239M to 10.650M. The implementation of the forecast will put additional pressure on the US currency.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD - The possibility of growth remains.​

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) has completed, and a downward correction has formed as wave (2), in which wave C of (2) has appeared. At the moment, the third wave (3) is being formed, in which the entry first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) was formed.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will rise to the area of 0.6912–0.7135. The level of 0.6362 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCHF - Candlestick analysis​

H4
On the four-hour chart, below the level of 0.9943, there is a formation of a "bearish" Hanging Man pattern, which signals that the asset has reached a local top and warns of a reversal. In addition, the Three Black Crows trend continuation pattern, which included the Bearish Marubozu, indicates that buyers failed to restore the price to previous highs, so at the moment there are prevailing "bearish" sentiments in the instrument. In this situation, a decrease in the quotes of the USD/CHF pair to the support level of 0.9742, consolidation below which will allow sellers to head to the zone of 0.9625–0.9500, is a more likely scenario. An alternative scenario is possible if the "bulls" successfully overcome the resistance level of 0.9846, and then the price may recover to the range of 0.9943–1.0064.

D1
A Double Top reversal pattern appeared on the daily chart, and the quotes of the trading instrument fell to the Neck area. Completion of the construction of this model should occur at the level of 0.9500. In addition, at 0.9943, there is an appearance of the Evening Star candlestick analysis pattern, which formed the first top, as well as the Bearish Marubozu pattern, which signals the predominance of sellers. Continuation of the downtrend to the support level of 0.9742 is the most likely scenario at the moment, after which the quotes may continue to move towards the area of 0.9625–0.9500.

Support levels: 0.9742, 0.9625, 0.95 | Resistance levels: 0.9846, 0.9943, 1.0064​

 

[SOLIDECN]

NZDUSD - The possibility of growth remains.​

On the daily chart, an ascending wave of the higher level (A) has been formed and the development of a downward correction as a wave (B) has completed. At the moment, the formation of an ascending wave (C) begins, in which the first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (C) develops.

If the assumption is correct, the price will rise to the area of 0.6166 – 0.6465. The level of 0.5564 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD - Pound strength may be temporary​

The pound quotes are supported by the partial cancellation of the government's plan to reduce the fiscal burden, which was negatively perceived by the market due to the high probability of an increase in inflation and public debt. Earlier in the week, the Treasury Department announced that it would not cut the income tax rate for wealthy citizens from 45% to 40%, and investors hope that other reliefs under the reform can be adjusted. However, today's GBPUSD growth may be interrupted, as data on business activity in the UK's key Services sector may turn out to be weak. It is expected that in September the indicator will decrease from 50.9 points to 49.2 points and for the first time since the beginning of 2021 will be in the stagnation zone.

The price of the trading instrument is close to 1.15 (Fibonacci retracement 23.6%), fixing above which will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 1.1718 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.2020 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key for the "bears" is the level of 1.1230 (Murray [7/8]), supported by the center line of Bollinger Bands, the breakdown of which will allow quotes to resume movement to the area of 1.0742 (Murray [6/8]), 1.05.

Resistance levels: 1.15, 1.1718, 1.202 | Support levels: 1.123, 1.0742, 1.05, 1.0253​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCAD - The possibility of growth remains.​

On the daily chart, the ascending fifth wave of the higher level 5 is developing, in which wave (1) of 5 has formed, the correctional wave (2) of 5 has completed and wave (3) of 5 is being built. At the moment, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (3) is being formed, in which wave iii of 3 has completed and a local correction is observed as the fourth wave iv of 3.

If the assumption is correct, the quotes of the USDCAD pair will rise to the area of 1.4100 – 1.4300. The level of 1.3298 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCHF - The possibility of growth remains.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction has ended as the second wave of the higher level 2, and the formation of an ascending third wave 3 has also begun, in which wave (1) of 3 is developing. At the moment, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (1) is being formed, within which wave iii of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the quotes of the USDCHF pair will continue to move towards the 1.0200–1.0300 area. The level of 0.9487 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

ADAUSD - Murray analysis​

The ADAUSD pair continues to trade within the short-term downtrend and this week tested the 0.4150 mark (Murray [1/8]), but could not consolidate below it. If successful, the downward dynamics of the cryptocurrency will resume to the levels of 0.3906 (Murray [0/8]) and 0.3662 (Murray [-1/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 0.4394 (Murray [2/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, when overcoming which it will be possible to reverse the current trend and strengthen the positions of the digital asset to the levels of 0.4882 (Murray [4/8]) and 0.5127 (Murray [5/8]).

The downtrend persists, as evidenced by the downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the stabilization of the MACD histogram in the negative zone, however, the upward reversal of the Stochastic does not exclude the continuation of corrective growth, but its potential is seen to be limited.

Resistance levels: 0.4394, 0.4882, 0.5127 | Support levels: 0.4150, 0.3906, 0.3662​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Crude Oil - The possibility of growth remains.​

On the daily chart, the upward wave C is developing, in which the first wave 1 of (1) of C was formed and the downward correction ended as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, where the wave c of 2 has already appeared. At the moment, the development of the third wave 3 of (1) begins, which includes the construction of the first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 3.

If the assumption is correct, the price will rise to the area of 104.25 – 110.4. The level of 83.12 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

[SOLIDECN]

Crude Oil - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, and the formation of downward correction ended as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed. Now, the development of the upward third wave (3) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the asset will grow to the area of 103.83 – 115.12. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 76.07.