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GBPUSD - Active decline amid the rhetoric of the British authorities​

The key impact on the dynamics of the asset was made by the report of the new UK Secretary of the Treasury, Kwasi Kwarteng, who announced measures to stabilize the economic situation: also to support the payment of electricity bills, the situation with taxation caused special attention. The official noted that the government is working on a plan for a significant reduction in fees, for the implementation of which it will be necessary to raise an additional 72.0B pounds, and one of the ways the government announced to receive these funds is to reduce the amount of unemployment benefits, due to which the majority of the UK population now lives. After this statement, investors are actively redirecting their capital to other currencies, which may lead to the achievement of parity between the pound and the US dollar soon.

The trading instrument has left the boundaries of a long downward channel and, having broken the support line, is actively declining. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars.

Resistance levels: 1.08, 1.1214 | Support levels: 1.0276, 1​

 

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USDJPY - Bank of Japan started foreign exchange interventions​

The Bank of Japan conducted the first foreign exchange intervention since 1998 to support the yen after the decision to keep interest rates at a very low level of –0.10%. Its value is unknown but judging by the movement on the stock exchange, it was a test operation to determine the “depth” of the market, but more serious steps may follow from the financial authorities, which will provoke new pressure on the USD/JPY pair. It is obvious that the key point for making a decision will be 145.00, upon reaching which the officials are likely to approve new interventions. It is quite logical that in the current situation, macroeconomic statistics faded into the background, but this morning, Service PMI in Japan was published, which in September rose to 51.9 points after three months of decline in a row.

The trading instrument is moving within the global uptrend, holding near the high of the year, around 145.9. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms bars well above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 144.55, 145.9 | Support levels: 142.30, 140.33​

 

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USDCHF - the "bulls" intend to break out the 0.985 level​

During the morning trading, the price of the USDCHF pair came close to the resistance level of 0.9850. Buyers are probably preparing to break through this mark and continue to grow with a target at the highs of May-June 2022. The growth of quotations is due to two factors: the strengthening of the US currency due to the increase in the interest rate of the US Fed (last week the regulator adjusted the value by 75 basis points to 3.25%) and the weakening of the euro, which also affects the currencies of neighboring countries, including the Swiss franc.

The USDCHF pair is trading in a long-term uptrend. The growth target is to update the highs of May-June 2022 at 1.004, the breakout of which will allow the instrument to continue the upward trend with a target at 1.0120. In turn, holding the resistance level of 0.9850 will lead to a price correction in the area of 0.965 – 0.96.

The mid-term trend is upward. Last week, market participants broke through target zone 2 (0.9762–0.9749), and the next growth target is zone 3 (0.9903–0.9890). The key trend support is shifting to 0.9733–0.9720. If the "bulls" test this zone as part of the correction, new long may be considered.

Resistance levels: 0.985, 1.004 | Support levels: 0.965, 0.96​

 

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EURUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level А develops, within which the fifth wave (5) of А forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (5) is developing, within which the third wave iii of 5 of (5) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.9470 – 0.9300. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9904.

 

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XAUUSD - Demand for gold continues to decline​

Gold prices show a slight increase, retreating from their April 2020 record lows, updated the day before, and trying to consolidate above 1630 amid increasing uncertainty about the global economic outlook.

The pressure on the XAUUSD pair remains, as the market expects further tightening of monetary policy by global financial regulators. In particular, the US Federal Reserve may go for at least one more major interest rate hike before the end of the year. In turn, the Bank of England may hold an emergency meeting in order to correct the rate, although it was previously noted that the regulator plans to take a wait-and-see position until November.

Demand for contracts based on the precious metal continues to decline: this week, the rate of liquidation of transactions for sale significantly exceeds the statistics for purchases. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold decreased to 65.7 thousand from 97.3 thousand a week earlier. As for the balance of sellers and buyers, the "bears" still hold the lead in the positions of swap dealers, and their number is 150.801 thousand against 96.613 thousand for the "bulls". This week, buyers again increased the number of contracts by 6.691 thousand, which is almost 10 times more than last week's increase, while sellers reduced their positions by 21.070 thousand contracts, which is 4 times higher than the rate of liquidation last week.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range expands from below, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic retains downward direction but is located in close proximity to its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold gold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1640, 1653.92, 1675, 1688.58 | Support levels: 1620, 1600, 1579.25, 1562.7​

 

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GBPUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (V) develops, within which the wave V of (V) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level (5) of V is developing, within which the wave 5 of (5) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.02 – 1. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1350.

 

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USDCAD - The trend in the pair has changed upwards​

Statistics Canada published a report on retail sales, which reflected negative dynamics in nine out of eleven sectors, and in general, in July, the figure fell by 2.5% to 61.3B dollars (for the first time since the beginning of the year). Gasoline prices fell the most (by 14.2%), while demand for new cars was corrected by -0.6% and used cars by –1.7%. This week, no more important macroeconomic data from Canada will be released, so the USDCAD pair will continue to be under the full control of the US currency.

On the daily chart of the asset, there is an upward trend: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.374, 1.39 | Support levels: 1.36, 1.34​

 

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Crude Oil - US strategic oil stock hits 1984 low​

The dynamics of the asset are affected by the continued release of oil from US reserve storage facilities. As noted in The Wall Street Journal, energy stocks fell last week to a minimum since 1984, reaching 427.0M barrels, and fell below commercial reserves held by US firms, which raises fears of experts ahead of the entry into force of the ban. for the import of Russian "black gold" by the EU countries from December 5. According to preliminary estimates, the market may lose up to 1.0M barrels per day, which will lead to a sharp increase in prices and have nothing to compensate for.

Despite the fall in quotations, the demand for contracts from investors continues to rise for the third week, reaching a value of 239.9K against 227.1K a week earlier. Such values were last recorded in 2016, during the first serious decline in oil prices to levels around 30 – 40 dollars per barrel, and at the current level of demand, there is no increase in asset quotes expected.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a downwards corridor, declining towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line and move away from it, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 85.5, 92 | Support levels: 82.4, 76.8​

 

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USDCAD - The possibility of growth remains.​

On the daily chart, the ascending fifth wave of the higher level 5 is developing, in which wave (1) of 5 has formed, the correctional wave (2) of 5 has completed and wave (3) of 5 is being built. At the moment, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (3) is being formed, within which wave iii of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will rise to the area of 1.41 – 1.43. The level of 1.348 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

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USDCHF - The possibility of growth remains.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction has ended as the second wave of the higher level 2, and the formation of an ascending third wave 3 has also begun, in which wave (1) of 3 is developing. At the moment, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (1) is being formed, within which wave iii of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the quotes of the USDCHF pair will continue to move towards the 1.02 – 1.03 area. The level of 0.9487 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

 

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EURUSD - US dollar continues a record growth​

The cost of gas to consumers could rise by 60% in the fourth quarter, with a new high for electricity at 66.6 cents per kilowatt-hour, up 25.0 cents from the previous quarter, according to forecasts by Italian analyst Nomisma Energia. The supply of "blue fuel" from Russia was again under threat after reports were received of the destruction of three strings of gas pipelines of the Nord Stream system near the Danish island of Bornholm. According to representatives of Nord Stream AG, which is the operator of the project, critical damage has been recorded, the timing of the repair of which is still unknown. Meanwhile, experts predict a slowdown in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Italy at least by two times, and the inflation rate is expected to be around 10.0%. Last month, energy prices in the country rose by 44.9% compared to 42.9% a month earlier, food prices rose by 10.5%, and durable goods by 3.9%. The Italian authorities have already allocated more than 50.0 billion euros to stabilize the economic situation, but it is obvious that this is not enough.

The trading instrument is traded within the global downward channel and has almost reached the support line. Technical indicators continue holding a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new bars, being in the sell zone.

Support levels: 0.948, 0.93 | Resistance levels: 0.967, 0.986​

 

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USDJPY - The trading instrument is preparing to continue growing​

The quotes are supported by the "hawkish" policy of the US Fed, aimed at combating inflation, which has reached 40-year peaks. Despite the fact that in August there was a slight decrease in the indicator from 8.5% to 8.3% in annual terms, officials intend to follow the course of tightening monetary incentives. In yesterday's speech, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of St. Louis, James Bullard, stated the need for a consistent increase in the interest rate, stressing that the US Fed is already losing the confidence of investors and citizens due to the inability to overcome high inflation. He noted that the peak rate is possible at the level of 4.5%, after which it will remain high for some time to manifest an economic effect. In turn, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of San Francisco, Mary Daly, stated the need to reduce excessive demand, which only acts as a driver of consumer price growth.

The long-term trend is upward. After the correction to the level of 141.9, the USDJPY pair continued to grow and is currently trying to break out the resistance level of 144.8. If successful, the upward trend will continue with a target at 148.5.

The mid-term trend remains upward. Last week, market participants tested the key support of the trend 141.36–140.92. The zone was held, after which a new upward momentum began, the purpose of which is to update the local maximum in the area of 145.80. Then the quotes will be able to continue moving to the area of 147.77–147.29.

Resistance levels: 144.80, 148.5 | Support levels: 141.9, 139, 136​

 

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AUDUSD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) ended, and a downward correction formed as the wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) ended. Now, the third wave (3) is developing, within which the entry first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) has formed.

If the assumption is correct, the AUD/USD pair will grow to the area of 0.6912–0.7135. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6362.

 

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NZDUSD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, and a downward correction ended as the wave (B). Now, the upward wave (C) is starting, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (C) has started.

If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the area of 0.6166–0.6465. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.5564.

 

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USDCHF - Correction within the side channel​

At the end of last week, the Swiss National Bank lifted the interest rate out of the negative zone. It raised it by 75 basis points, bringing it to 0.5% in response to inflation rising to 3.5%, recorded by statistics in August. Despite the measures taken, the regulator expects that the indicator will remain above 3% until the end of the year and will begin a gradual decline only in 2023. Due to high uncertainty in the global economy, officials have also adjusted their forecasts for GDP growth until the end of the year and now expect the figure to rise by 2% rather than 2.5%, as noted earlier.

The asset's price is correcting within the lateral corridor, declining towards the lower border on the daily chart. Technical indicators hold a buy signal, which has somewhat weakened due to a downward correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed a down bar in the buying zone.

Support levels: 0.9745, 0.962 | Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9965​

 

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ADAUSD - the token remains under pressure​

The release of the Cardano Vasil network update made it more scalable and improved the convenience of working with smart contracts but could not provide serious support to the positions of ADA. Experts identify two main reasons that led to pressure on the token.

Firstly, modernization was postponed for a long time. Investors managed to factor in the positive effect of it into the price, and, accordingly, after the activation of the quote, they began a corrective decline. A similar technical picture was observed earlier after the release of Cardano Shelley and Alonzo forks. The tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve remains a long-term factor that puts pressure on the entire cryptocurrency sector: at the last meeting, the regulator again raised the interest rate by 75 basis points, bringing it to the range of 3.00–3.25%, and predicted its preservation for high levels over the next few years. Accordingly, the US currency may soon continue to strengthen against alternative assets, including digital ones.

The trading instrument fell below 0.4394 (Murrey [2/8]), which gives the prospect of further decline to 0.3906 (Murrey [0/8]), 0.3662 (Murrey [–1/8]). The key “bullish” level is 0.4638 (Murrey [3/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands, upon the breakdown of which it will be possible to resume growth to 0.4882 (Murrey [4/8]) and 0.5127 (Murrey [5/8]). Technical indicators reflect that the downtrend is continuing: Bollinger bands and Stochastic are reversing downwards, while the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.4638, 0.4882, 0.5127 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662​

 

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USDCAD - Two-year high update​

This week, the quotes of the USDCAD pair updated the June 2020 high at 1.372 against the background of the strengthening of the USD, which was supported by the decisions of the US Fed officials to continue the tightening of monetary policy. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, believes that due to the lack of progress in reducing inflation in the USA, the regulator will have to pursue a more restrictive monetary policy, setting an interest rate in the range of 4.25% -4.5% by the end of 2022.

In addition, the correction of quotations for WTI Crude Oil to the levels of 75 - 80 dollars per barrel leads to a weakening of the Canadian currency, giving an advantage to the "bulls" in the USDCAD pair. Continuation of this trend will accelerate the upward dynamics of quotations, and one of the possible targets for purchases will be the level of 1.3870.

The long-term trend in the USDCAD instrument remains upward: after updating the June 2020 high in the area of 1.372, the target for long trades became the mark of 1.3870, if it is broken, the quotes may rise to the area of 1.41. The RSI indicator enters the overbought zone of the market, which signals to traders about a possible correction in the medium term. Buyers of the pair should take this fact into account and focus on closing long positions as the price approaches the next resistance level.

The mid-term trend is upward. Market participants broke out the target zone 1.3668-1.3644 this week. The next target is the zone 1.3919 – 1.3894. The key trend support is shifting to the levels 1.3606 – 1.3584. This zone was tested yesterday, which caused another wave of instrument purchases. The nearest target is the maximum of the current week in the area of 1.383.

Resistance levels: 1.387, 1.41 | Support levels: 1.36, 1.34, 1.336​

 

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USDJPY - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 formed and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. Now, the fifth wave v of 3 is forming, within which a local correction ha ended as the wave (iv) of v.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will grow within the wave (v) of v to the area of 150 – 152. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 140.35.

 

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XAUUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction develops as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) forms as a momentum. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C of (4) is developing, within which the wave (v) of iii of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will fall to the area of 1570 – 1515.1. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1690.

 

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GBPUSD - The pound took advantage of the weakness of the dollar​

Today the dynamics in the GBP/USD pair can change against the backdrop of the publication of an extensive block of macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the data on the country's Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) coincided with forecasts, and the indicator added 0.2% after growing by 0.8% a quarter earlier, acting as a catalyst for a slowdown from 8.7% to 4.4% YoY. Today, traders are also following statistics on consumer lending, which recorded a decrease in September from 1.425B to 1.077B, with a forecast of 1.400B, while the number of borrowings approved by citizens increased from 63.77K to 74.34K.

Meanwhile, British investors are concerned that Prime Minister Liz Truss has shrugged off the concerns of the country's leading economists by refusing to consider canceling a project recently announced by the Treasury to reduce the fiscal burden on households and businesses. The official said the 60.0B pound household support measures are helping the economy out of the crisis, but analysts are worried about lifting restrictions on bonuses to the top management of banks, as well as reducing stamp duty on property purchases.

The trading instrument is trying to return to the previously abandoned downwards channel. Technical indicators maintain a decelerating sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator began to narrow slightly, and the AO oscillator's histogram formed a new upward bar.

Resistance levels: 1.1250, 1.154 | Support levels: 1.1, 1.069​