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McDonald's technical analysis​

Shares of McDonald's Corp., the world's largest chain of fast-food restaurants, correct within a downtrend at 255. On the daily chart, there is a global upward correction, within which a local Head and shoulders reversal pattern is formed with the Neckline at 250. The four-hour chart shows that the price failed to realize it, but this week it may make a second attempt, in which case the support line around 245.00 will act as a local obstacle, consolidation below which will open the way to the main target at 236.

Technical indicators have completely reversed downwards: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars with a downward trend in the sell zone.​

 

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USDCHF - Swiss economy remains under pressure​

Switzerland's trade balance will be published tomorrow, which could fall to annual lows of 2.9B francs due to the continued rise in the cost of imports: this figure added 8.6% in August compared to last year's value. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) will publish fresh economic forecasts, which will reflect the situation with inflation, which due to rising import prices, may increase to 3.3–3.5% this month, which is another anti-record for the country.

On the daily chart, the price is correcting within the downwards corridor, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators keep a sell signal, which has weakened due to an upward correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed another downward bar in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.97, 0.9843 | Support levels: 0.9587, 0.941​

 

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GBPUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level V develops, within which the wave (1) of V forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 5 has formed, the correctional wave iv of 5 has ended and the wave v of 5 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.105 – 1.075. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1736.
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USDJPY - Trades within the global uptrend​

Today, the Nikkei published an article regarding the possible continuation of the fall in Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) in the coming quarter: for the first time since 1992, the figure may fall below 4.0T dollars due to the record depreciation of the yen, which occurs due to large differences in accounting central bank rates, and if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates this week, the Japanese currency will be under even greater pressure. Inflation data will be published tomorrow: the nationwide consumer price index may increase to 2.7% in August from 2.4% earlier, a fairly fast growth rate that strains the economy.

The trading instrument is moving within the global uptrend, holding near the year's high, around 143. Technical indicators still ignore local price fluctuations and keep a stable buy signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new bars well above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 144.55, 147 | Support levels: 142.1, 138.95​

 

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USDJPY - The pair is in a correction and may grow.​

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. Now, the fifth wave v of 3 is developing, within which the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v has ended, and a local correction is developing as the wave (iv) of v.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the USDJPY pair will grow within the wave (v) of v to the area of 147 – 150. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 140.

 

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Walmart - Technical analysis​

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting upwards after a significant decline, forming a local ascending channel with boundaries of 132 – 146. Now the quotes have reached the support line of the range, after which an upward wave began. On the four-hour chart of the asset, the price is above the key level of the basic correction of 38.2% Fibonacci around 133 in favor of continuing the positive dynamics, after consolidation above which, the growth may continue to a full correction of 61.8% Fibonacci around 144.

Technical indicators confirm the upward momentum: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, despite ambiguous fluctuations, is moving in the buying zone.​

 

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XAGUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of C of (2) is developing, within which the wave (iii) of v has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of v, and the wave (v) of v has started.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will fall to the area of 17 – 15.8. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 20.04.

 

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USDCAD - Markets are awaiting the decision of the US Federal Reserve​

This week, the trading instrument renewed another annual high at 1.3340, and one of the reasons for the weakening of the Canadian dollar was yesterday's national macroeconomic statistics: the industrial price index for August fell by 1.2%, much worse than the growth of 0.2% expected by analysts, resulting in a slowdown in annual growth from 11.5% to 10.6%. Import prices for the same period decreased by 4.2% against an expected increase of 3.2%, which decreased the annual value from 19.1% to 17.6%. The USD/CAD pair demonstrates ambiguous dynamics ahead of today's publication of the consumer price index: analysts are counting on negative dynamics in the amount of –0.1%, which could contribute to a drop in annual data from 7.6% to 7.3%.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.2800–1.3400, approaching the resistance line. The Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms upward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.3310, 1.3450 | Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3040​

 

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EURUSD - The US dollar controls the dynamics of the pair​

The European currency remains neutral against the backdrop of new negative reports regarding the economic state of the EU. Thus, the Eurostat agency published a study that estimates the price rise for a key food product – bread. In August, its average cost in the EU increased by 18% compared to last year and reached an absolute historical record. Bread prices rose the most in Hungary, by 60% YoY and 10% last month, and the least in France and Belgium, by 10% and 13%, respectively. Thus, food and fuel prices increase, and the inflation rate will continue to rise.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain a weakening sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0100, 1.0320 | Support levels: 0.9900, 0.97​

 

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AUDUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C ended, and a downward correction develops as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, a correction has ended as the fourth wave iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which the wave (v) of v is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.66 – 0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6917.

 

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NZDUSD - The pair may fall.​

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B. Now, the wave C of (B) is developing, within which a local correction has ended as the fourth wave of the lower level iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.575 – 0.56. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6165.

 

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GBPUSD - The pound is preparing to renew the year's lows​

The pound has consolidated near another historical low and is being traded in anticipation of new macroeconomic data but investors are paying attention to consumer sentiment now. Yesterday, Prime Minister Liz Truss said that the issue of rationing electricity tariffs is not worth it, as they will be frozen. Ordinary Britons fear the measure will come at a too high current cost: rates have risen sharply in recent times, putting a heavy strain on households that risk a financial crisis by the start of winter.

The US dollar continues to develop positive dynamics in anticipation of today's meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Investors perceived yesterday's data on the housing market as neutral: the number of building permits issued in August decreased to 1.517M from 1.658M, which is a fairly significant drop when taking into account the average values of the current year, and the volume of construction of new houses, on the contrary, showed a significant increase, amounting to 1.575M instead of 1.404M a month earlier.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, declining along the support line. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downward bars.

Resistance levels: 1.1462, 1.1686 | Support levels: 1.13, 1.11​

 

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XAUUSD - Investors continue to reduce their positions in gold​

Today the decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy will be published. Most analysts believe that the interest rate will be raised by 75 basis points, which could lead to another rise in the dollar and exceed the summer peak of 110 in the USD Index. The price of gold is tightly tied to the price of the US currency, and even taking into account the stability of the precious metal, the growth of the USD Index by 2-3% can provoke a decrease in asset quotes by 1-2%. The main scenario of analysts today assumes such a variant of price movement.

In turn, the demand for contracts for gold has recently declined slightly. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), sellers continued to actively reduce their positions last week, while buyers slightly strengthen them. In the positions of swap dealers, which usually react quickly to any changes in the market, buyers increased their number by 0.535 thousand contracts, while sellers reduced them by 4.059 thousand contracts. As for the general trend, the number of positions has been decreasing for the third week in a row, this time to 97.3 thousand from 103.9 thousand.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is holding in a descending channel and after reaching the low of the year at 1650 is still at these levels. Technical indicators hold a sell signal, which remains quite strong: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line again, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new downward bars, being in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1650, 1610 | Resistance levels: 1680, 1730​

 

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EURUSD - In anticipation of poor statistics on business activity in the EU

The European currency is showing negative dynamics against its main competitors in anticipation of tomorrow's publication of an extensive block of macroeconomic statistics: analysts predict a decline in business activity indicators for September in almost all leading EU countries. Thus, Composite PMI in Germany may fall to 46.0 points from 46.9 points in August, and Composite PMI in France may fall to 49.8 points from 50.4 points earlier. EU Composite PMI index of business activity in the EU is expected to be 48.2 points, down from 48.9 points in the previous period.

Yesterday, analysts' attention was focused on the US markets. The US dollar renewed the year's high and is currently trading around 111.200 in the USD Index after the country's financial regulator raised its interest rate by 75.0 basis points to 3.25% and provided forecasts for the development of the economic situation. Expectations worsened on all three main indicators: inflation in 2022 is expected at 5.4% from 5.2% previously, unemployment will increase to 3.8% from 3.7% earlier, and economic growth may slow to 0.2% from 1.7% earlier, which most disappointed experts, as the decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) confirms the annual recession.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.9900, 1.012 | Support levels: 0.9800, 0.965​

 

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USDCAD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the wave (1) of 5 formed, the correctional wave (2) of 5 ended and the wave (3) of 5 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (3) is forming, within which the wave iii of 3 has formed.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.38 – 1.41. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2955.

 

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XAGUSD - The pair is showing mixed dynamics​

The pressure on the position of the instrument is exerted by the decision of the US Federal Reserve published the day before to increase the interest rate by another 75 basis points for the third time in a row. At the same time, the regulator raised inflation estimates and lowered economic growth expectations for 2022–2023. The Chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, signaled a further tightening of monetary policy until the end of the year: in particular, it is assumed that at the next meeting the regulator can adjust the value immediately by 125 basis points.

Today, the focus of traders will be two more meetings of central banks: the National Bank of Switzerland, which can raise the rate from -0.25% to 0.5%, and the Bank of England, which can adjust the value from 1.75% to 2.25%. Also, the British regulator is expected to publish updated forecasts for economic growth, suggesting evidence of a possible recession in expert estimates.

Resistance levels: 19.5, 19.74, 20, 20.48 | Support levels: 19, 18.68, 18.41, 18​

 

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Crude Oil - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C, and a downward correction develops as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave c of 2 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of c is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will fall to the area of 77.50–62.73. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 96.32.

 

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XAUUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction forms as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) develops as a momentum. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C of (4) is forming, within which the wave (v) of iii of C is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will fall to the area of 1621.9 – 1515.1. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1736.8.

 

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Crude Oil - The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) ended, and a downward correction develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will fall to the area of 67 – 51.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 89.95.

 

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XAGUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) develops. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of C of (2) is developing, within which the wave (iii) of v has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of v and the wave (v) of v is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will fall to the area of 17 – 15.8. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 19.91.