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NZDUSD - New Zealand food prices hit a 13-year high​

Today, Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) released a report on food prices, which rose 8.3% in August, reflecting the biggest correction since July 2009. Most of all, vegetables and fruits went up in price, adding 15%, the cost of grocery sets increased by 8.7%, fish and poultry – by 7.6%, restaurant dishes – by 6.5%, and prices for soft drinks rose by 4.1%. %. The negative dynamics are primarily due to disruptions in supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the development of the energy crisis, and the rise in the cost of transport services. Thus, inflation in August exceeded the previous month by 1.1%, confirming the slowdown in the national economy.

The US currency fell below 108.000 in the USD Index. Markets are awaiting the publication of data on consumer prices in the US for August: analysts suggest that the dynamics will be negative at –0.1% MoM and slow down to 8.1% YoY from 8.5% earlier. However, the Core figure, which excludes fuel and food prices, could rise by 0.3% MoM, reflected in an increase to 6.1% YoY from 5.9% a month earlier.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, away from the year's low. Technical indicators maintain a weakening sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6194, 0.6330 | Support levels: 0.6096, 0.6000​

 

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XAUUSD - demand for gold is gradually increasing​

Although the quotes of the trading instrument are near the annual lows, the demand for both physical gold and contracts remains high. Thus, the Australian Mint reported that in August, it sold 84.9K ounces of metal in the form of bars and coins, which is 57.4% higher than the same indicator last year and 7.2% higher than in July. The US Mint sold 857.0K ounces of gold as coins in the first eight months of this year, up 1.2% from last year, while Canada sold CAD 31.9M worth of coins in the second quarter compared to 24.8M Canadian dollars a year earlier.

The latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last week recorded active closing of transactions by sellers, and the trend is observed in all categories: in positions backed by money, the “bulls” increased their superiority, reaching 1.294K contracts, while the “bears” there is a decrease by 4.035K. In the positions of swap dealers, buyers added 2.064K contracts, and sellers liquidated 10.359K contracts.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price moves in a downward channel, and after reaching the low of the year, it again approaches the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a weakening sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1734, 1780 | Support levels: 1696, 1650​

 

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CAC 40 - French stock market is recovering​

The quotes of the trading instrument were supported by the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise the interest rate by a record value of 75 basis points. At the same time, not all officials of the regulator are confident in the need to continue such a "hawkish" course. Thus, ECB Governing Council member Edward Scicluna recognized the adjustment as necessary in the current economic conditions, noting that the maximum level of correction of the indicator will probably not be applied in the future. European officials intend to focus on inflation statistics and do not rule out a slowdown to 25 basis points.

The index quotes have reversed and continue to show active growth. Technical indicators are preparing to issue a new buy signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are rapidly approaching the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, being in the sales zone, forms ascending bars.

Support levels: 6234, 5871 | Resistance levels: 6408, 6624​

 

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MasterCard, shares set to continue rising​

It became known that Bitso, a dynamically developing cryptocurrency exchange in Latin America, which processes up to 5% of all money transfers to Mexico, has signed an agreement with the issuer: the exchange intends to use MasterCard payment cards, which will support payment for purchases in Mexican pesos.

Investors expect the situation to continue developing with the decision of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), which on Friday approved the creation of a special code for implementation in all payment systems to track suspicious arms transactions. So far, only Visa Inc. has supported the proposal, but MasterCard Inc. has already commented on the situation, saying that the corporation is carefully studying the initiative since it is focused on conducting operations within the legal framework.

The trading instrument is moving within the global Triangle pattern with dynamic boundaries of 300.00–355.00, forming a new growth wave. Technical indicators are ready to react and are reversing upwards: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 345, 363 | Support levels: 321.7, 303.3​

 

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USDCAD - A fall is possible.​

On the weekly chart, the downward correctional wave of the higher level 4 develops, within which the wave (C) of 4 forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (C) has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave 2 of (C), and the third wave 3 of (C) has started, within which the wave i of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will fall to the area of 1.2374 – 1.201. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3224.

 

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USDCHF - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the fifth downward wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the first wave (1) of 5 forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (1) has formed, a local correction has ended as the second wave 2 of (1) and the third wave 3 of (1) has started, within which the wave i of 3 has formed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correctional wave ii of 3, the USDCHF pair will fall within the wave to the area of 0.92 – 0.8916. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9889.

 

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Starbucks - Technical analysis​

Shares of Starbucks Corp., one of the largest companies in the world, which owns the chain of coffee houses of the same name, are moving in a corrective trend around the 88 mark. On the daily chart of the asset, the price has left the global downwards channel, having consolidated above the initial Fibonacci correction of 23.6% around 81.80, and is correcting upwards.

On the four-hour time interval, the local growth develops within the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries at 83 – 95. The key “bullish” resistance is the base Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 88.7, after which the positive dynamics may continue until reaching the 61.8% full retracement at 100.

Technical indicators maintain a buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line and continue to move away, while the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.​

 

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Visa - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) ended, and a downward correction forms as the fourth wave (4). Now, the wave A of (4) has formed, and the wave B of (4) is developing, within which the wave a of B has formed, and the wave b of B is developing.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the asset will grow to the area of 226.95 – 236.61. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 185.1.

 

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EURTRY - The price rushed to the historical high around 18.6​

Lira quotes are strengthening after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unveiled a plan to allocate 50.0B dollars for the construction of new residential buildings and office buildings. As part of the initiative, the government will extend the mortgage repayment period to 20 years to keep monthly payments below 125.0 dollars at a minimum monthly salary of 300.0 dollars. If we pay attention to macroeconomic statistics, then according to the July report, the volume of industrial production in Turkey slowed to 2.4% from 8.8% earlier, and retail sales decreased by 0.3%, which led to a slowdown in the annual rate to 2.0 %.

Despite the decline of the euro against the backdrop of yesterday's report on the index of economic sentiment from ZEW to –60.7 points from –54.9 points, it is the European currency that controls the dynamics of the asset, which will not change soon due to the too large gap in the strength of the economies of the two countries. Until Friday, the current trend may continue, and at the end of the week, statistics on consumer prices in the EU will be released and judging by the strong reaction of the market to yesterday's similar data from the US, we can assume that if the indicator drops below 9.1%, the pair EUR/TRY is expected to rise again.

The trading instrument demonstrates positive dynamics as part of the next wave of global growth, approaching the all-time high around 18.6. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 18.6, 19.3 | Support levels: 17.923, 17.241​

 

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USDJPY - The yen continues to resist the growth of the US dollar​

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki announced the regulator's readiness to take decisive steps to stabilize the national currency, not excluding foreign exchange interventions. At the same time, the yen has become more competitive, positively impacting the tourism industry's development, as more and more travelers want to visit Japan due to a significant reduction in the cost of such tours in dollars or euros. Locally, the yen quotes were also supported by statistics on basic orders in engineering, which rose by 5.3% in July, up by 12.8% YoY.

The trading instrument is moving within the global uptrend, having reached the maximum of the year around 145. Technical indicators do not react to local dynamics and keep a stable buy signal: the EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator is directed upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new bars well above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 145, 147 | Support levels: 142.08, 138.9​

 

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Gold - Candlestick Analysis​

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H4
On the four-hour chart, there is the formation of an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern at the level of 1696.34; however, the attempt of the "bulls" to seize the initiative in the XAU/USD pair was unsuccessful. This can be seen in the formation of a Bearish Engulfing pattern, which showed that the market is still under the influence of sellers. The appearance of opposite figures states uncertainty, and in the current situation the price may reverse at the support level of 1682.63 and head higher to the resistance level of 1732.43, overcoming of which will open the way for the "bulls" to the zone of 1808.60–1879.88. An alternative scenario is likely if the price breaks down the support level of 1682.63, then the instrument may drop to the area of 1628.66–1551.08.


D1
On the daily chart, at the level of 1696.34, there is the formation of Inverted Hammer and Hammer candlestick analysis patterns, which warn of a likely price reversal upwards, and at the moment, at the level of 1717.8, another Inverted Hammer model is being built. After a long decline in the asset, the price has probably reached the bottom and is preparing for a reversal. In the current situation, it seems possible to restore quotes to the level of 1732.43, overcoming which will allow the price to strengthen to the area of 1808.6 – 1879.88.

Support levels: 1682.63, 1628.66, 1551.08 | Resistance levels: 1732.43, 1808.6, 1879.88​

 

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AUDUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C ended, and a downward correction develops as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, a correction has ended as the fourth wave iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which the wave (v) of v is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.66 – 0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6917.

 

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Netflix - Technical analysis​

On the daily chart, the price continues its poor upward trend, trying to reach the price gap closing level of April 20 between 250 – 330. The four-hour chart shows that the upside potential is quite high, despite the unsuccessful test of the key resistance level of 250. Soon, another attempt to reach it may follow. Otherwise, the quotes may return to the support level at 207.

Technical indicators have changed the upward signal to neutral: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range has narrowed almost completely, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming ambiguous bars in the buying zone.​

 

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NZDUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B. Now, the wave C of (B) is developing, within which a local correction has ended as the fourth wave of the lower level iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.591 – 0.58. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6165.

 

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USDCAD - Canadian household wealth hits historic low​

The "hawkish" policy of the Bank of Canada, which is actively raising interest rates and has brought the rate to 3.25% at the last meeting, has caused serious pressure on households. The previous day, the Statistics Office reported a drop in their wealth in the second quarter to the lowest value in history at –6.1%, which amounted to 775.0B dollars. One of the key factors behind the negative dynamics was a 419.0B dollars decline in real estate prices and corrections in the stock market. The debt-to-income ratio increased to 181.7% from 179.7% a quarter earlier, and analysts expect this trend to pick up in the year's second half.

The US dollar has almost regained its lost position and is now confidently trading above 109 in the USD Index, although macroeconomic statistics record negative dynamics in many industries. Thus, the rate on 30-year loans from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reached a historic high of 6.01%, rising from 5.94%, once again increasing the debt burden on households. It is worth noting the decrease in the producer price index by 0.1% in August and, as a result, the slowdown in the annual rate to 8.7% from 9.8% a month earlier.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.2800–1.3400, approaching the resistance line. The Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms multidirectional bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3374 | Support levels: 1.3116, 1.2955
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EURUSD - The US dollar controls the dynamics of the pair​

According to data released yesterday, the volume of Industrial Production in the eurozone in July fell by 2.3% after rising by 1.1% a month earlier, which led to a decrease in the annual rate by 2.4% after increasing by 2.2% in the previous month. The negative dynamics was supported by today's data on the Wholesale Price Index in Germany, which in August added only 0.1 against the forecast of 0.5%, and in annual terms slowed to 18.9% from 19.5%.

The EURUSD pair remains within the global descending channel, declining in the direction of the support line. Technical indicators hold the sell signal, somewhat weakening it: the fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are still below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new bars, being deep in the sales zone.

Support levels: 0.99, 0.975 | Resistance levels: 1.0055, 1.02​

 

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USDJPY - Growth is possible​

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 formed and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. Now, the fifth wave v of 3 is developing, within which the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v has ended, and a local correction is developing as the wave (iv) of v.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the USDJPY pair will grow to the area of 147.5 – 150. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 138.32.

 

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Gold - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction develops as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) forms as a momentum. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C of (4) is developing, within which the wave (v) of iii of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the XAU/USD pair will fall to the area of 1621.9–1515.1. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1735.23.

 

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NZDUSD - New Zealand's economy continues to slow down​

One of the drivers of the movement of quotations was the report on the state of the New Zealand economy in the second quarter, according to which the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.7% after falling by 0.2% a quarter earlier, while analysts expected growth by 1.0%, which, however, did not have a significant impact on the annual rate, which slowed to 0.4% from 1.2% a quarter earlier, while the forecast was 0.2%. Thus, the average annual GDP slowed down to 1.0% from 5.1% earlier. Today's data on business activity showed an increase in the Manufacturing PMI in August to 54.9 points from 53.5 points a month earlier and somewhat slowed down the downward dynamics of the instrument in anticipation of the release of statistics on Household Spending next week.

Quotes of the NZDUSD pair are traded within the global downtrend, again approaching the support line of the downstream channel. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which started strengthening: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sell zone, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 0.5955, 0.58 | Resistance levels: 0.6035, 0.621​

 

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EURUSD - Growth is possible.​

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level C of (B) ended, within which the fifth wave v of (C) formed. Now, the upward wave (C) has started, within which the entry first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (C) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.0366 – 1.0612. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9858.