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USDJPY - Growth is possible​

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. Now, the fifth wave v of 3 is developing, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction (ii) of v, the USD/JPY pair will grow to the area of 145 – 150. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 131.7.

 

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XAUUSD - The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum and the fifth wave (5) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (5) has formed, and the local correction has developed as the second wave ii of 1 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow within the wave iii of 1 to the area of 1857.25 – 1910.3. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1681.43.

 

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EURUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level C of (B) develops, within which the fifth wave v of (C) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of C is developing, within which the wave (v) of v of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.98 – 0.97. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0082.

 

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GBPUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level V develops, within which the wave (1) of V forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 5 is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.13 – 1.105. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1887.

 

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Shares of Visa, America's largest multinational payment services company, are correcting at 198.

On the daily chart, a global Triangle pattern with dynamically narrowing boundaries at 185 – 217 is developing, and at the moment, the price is heading towards the support line. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the even down wave has a high potential for implementation since the only serious obstacle in the form of support around 200 has already been overcome by now, and quotes have headed towards the support line around 185.

Technical indicators confirm a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range is directed downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars.​

 

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USDCAD - Candlestick Analysis​

H4
On the 4-hour chart in the ascending trend channel below the level of 1.3207 there is a formation of a Hanging Man candlestick analysis pattern, signaling an impending price reversal, as well as two Shooting Star patterns, indicating weakening buyer activity. At the moment, above the level of 1.3089, a Three Black Crows figure has appeared, which similarly emphasizes the "bearish" sentiment for the instrument. The most likely is the decline of the asset to the zone of 1.2732–1.2454 after overcoming the lower boundary of the uptrend and the support level 1.3029. An alternative scenario is possible if the price consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3267 with the targets of 1.3425 – 1.3716.

D1
On the daily chart at the level of 1.3207 there is a Shooting Star pattern, which is a reversal pattern at the top, as well as the formation of a Hanging Man confirming pattern, which appears in the area of high prices and signals that the asset has reached a local top. In this case, a downward scenario from the support level of 1.3029 seems more likely, and consolidation of the price below it will allow the "bears" to head to the zone of 1.2732–1.2454.

Support levels: 1.3029, 1.2732, 1.2454 | Resistance levels: 1.3267, 1.3425, 1.3716​

 

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XAUUSD - demand for physical gold declined sharply​

According to the reports of the world's leading mints, primarily the US, August was the weakest month of this year in terms of sales of the precious metal: the US Mint sold 46,000K ounces of gold in the form of the American Eagle coin, which is 28% lower than in July and 66% down from August 2021 and American Buffalo coin sales were 17,500K ounces, down from 39,500K ounces in July.

Another worrying factor for the asset is the outflow of investors from ETFs. Thus, over the past week, metal stocks at the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) trust decreased by 11 tons, demonstrating negative dynamics for the tenth consecutive week, while net capital outflow in August was recorded at 456.0M dollars. Data from trading floors also confirm these changes in investment demand: according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, the number of net speculative positions in gold decreased to 117.7K from 125.8K contracts. If you pay attention to the dynamics of trading, it is "bulls" that close more deals, which can serve as short-term support for quotes: last week, swap dealers liquidated sell positions by 5,296K, and buyers increased by 1,755K contracts.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a downward channel and, after reaching the low of the year, is preparing for a local reversal. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal, ignoring a possible local correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept well below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is decreasing in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1727, 1802 | Support levels: 1696, 1640​

 

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Crude Oil - growth ahead of OPEC+ meeting​

Quotes of Brent Crude Oil are trading around 95, and the asset's volatility is very high ahead of the meeting of representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Last week, the key event was the decision of the G7 countries to introduce new restrictions on the supply of Russian oil: it is supposed to set a price ceiling for raw materials and prohibit the insurance of ships transporting them at a higher cost. Deputy Chairman of the Russian government, Alexander Novak, has already stated that official Moscow will not sell energy resources to those states that use non-market pricing schemes and intends to reorient itself to other regions. Thus, this decision will have almost no effect on the volume of exports of Russian oil in the world, and pressure on energy prices will be minimal.

Today at 12:00 (GMT+2), the leaders of the OPEC+ countries will discuss the parameters for implementing the oil production agreement for the period from October to the end of this year. According to preliminary information, the cartel intends to maintain the current agreements on a gradual increase in production by 100K barrels per day, which is another positive factor for the market. At least Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak and Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman have already spoken about this.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a downward correction to the global uptrend, and after reaching the July low at 91.00, it is reversing upwards. Technical indicators slowed the decline: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range began to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator was close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 97.26, 103.5 | Support levels: 91.48, 85.6​

 

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S&P 500 - Growth in the US bond market is a catalyst for the correction of the index​

The US stock market continues to trade in a downtrend, despite the positive corporate reporting. Quotes of the S&P 500 index are currently correcting downwards to the area of 3926.

American automaker Ford Motor Co. reported an increase in sales in August by 27.3% compared to the same period a year earlier, while the total number of cars sold was fixed at around 158.088 thousand vehicles. The same figure for electric vehicles quadrupled to 5.9 thousand cars. The day before, the developer of semiconductor products Broadcom Inc. published its financial results, reporting a 1.7-fold increase in net profit. The company posted 8.46 billion dollars in revenue, beating analysts' estimate of 8.41 billion dollars, and posted earnings per share of 9.73 dollars.

The index quotes fell below the support line of the local uptrend, trying to consolidate in the downtrend. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which they have issued recently: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, holding in the sell zone, is forming descending bars.

Support levels: 3878, 3641 | Resistance levels: 3992, 4180​

 

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USDCHF - Candlestick analysis​

H4
On the four-hour chart, at the resistance level of 0.983, there is the formation of a reversal candlestick analysis pattern Dark-Cloud Cover, as well as a Shooting Star pattern, signaling a shift in forces towards sellers. In addition, it is worth noting the appearance of two Hanging Man patterns at once, which confirm the achievement of the top by the asset, and the Doji pattern above the level of 0.977, which warns of uncertainty in the market and an imminent trend change in the USDCHF pair. Thus, the most likely scenario is the asset's decline to the support level of 0.9693, the overcoming of which will intensify the negative dynamics up to the level of 0.9383. An alternative scenario is possible if the "bulls" manage to consolidate their positions above the resistance level of 0.9830, then the price may recover to the zone of 0.9944 – 1.0064.

D1
On the daily chart, a Long-Legged Doji candlestick pattern is being formed, which notifies of a price reversal at the top, as well as a Bearish Engulfing pattern, signaling a loss of control over the market by buyers. In the current situation, most likely, the asset will go down to the support level of 0.9693, the overcoming of which will allow quotes to continue moving towards the area of 0.95 – 0.9383.

Support levels: 0.9693, 0.95, 0.9383 | Resistance levels: 0.983, 0.9944, 1.0064

 

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BTCUSD - "digital gold" is preparing to update the June low​

The BTCUSD pair is under pressure after the statements of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, made at a symposium in Jackson Hole, where the official indicated the readiness of the regulator for a serious tightening of monetary policy in the future.

Thus, investors lay a 70% chance of raising interest rates by 75.0 basis points at the department's meeting on September 21. If the forecast is realized, the US dollar will continue to strengthen, and the interest of traders in the first cryptocurrency will continue to decline, increasing the likelihood of bankruptcies of crypto companies. Against the backdrop of the existing uncertainty in the market, market participants are forced to close long positions and redirect their capital to the US currency, which leads to a stronger downward trend in the BTCUSD pair.

The long-term trend remains downwards, and the trading instrument is falling towards 18500, after which breakdown, the downward dynamics will continue with the target at 13200. Otherwise, a repeated correction to the resistance area of 24900 will begin.

The medium-term trend is also downwards. After an unsuccessful attempt to break through the resistance level of 20480.00, the quotes are falling to the support area of 19500, upon the breakdown of which the next target will be 19000.

Resistance levels: 24900, 27444, 32100 | Support levels: 18500, 13200​

 

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GBPUSD - investors evaluate the results of the election of the British Prime Minister​

The key event, which continues to influence all segments of the UK market, remains the results of the elections for the post of head of the Conservative Party and the government of the country, which were won by Liz Truss, who until now held the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs. She overtook her main opponent, former finance minister Rishi Sunak, with 81,326K votes. Officially, Liz Truss will take office today after an audience with Queen Elizabeth II of The United Kingdom. It is worth noting that the official will have a rather busy start to work, as the national economy is in dire need of support, and the population is counting on additional subsidies to pay for skyrocketing electricity and heating bills. Incumbent officials resigned ahead of forming a new cabinet: Home Secretary Priti Patel, Government Secretariat official Nigel Adams, Home Office deputy head for security Stephen McPartland and Culture Minister Nadine Dorries. It is still difficult to assess what innovations in domestic policy will be adopted, but experts are confident that Liz Truss will continue the course of the previous Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and serious changes should not be expected.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1762, 1.22 | Support levels: 1.1446, 1.113​

 

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FTSE 100 - the stock market shows an upward trend​

The key event, which continues to influence all segments of the UK market, remains the results of the elections for the post of Head of the Conservative Party and of the British government, which were won by Liz Truss, who until now held the position of Secretary of Foreign Affairs. She overtook her main opponent, former finance minister Rishi Sunak, with 81.326 thousand votes. The official will have a rather tense start to her post as the national economy is in dire need of support and the population is counting on additional subsidies to pay for skyrocketing electricity and heating bills. Incumbent officials resigned ahead of the formation of a new cabinet: Home Secretary Priti Patel, Government Minister of State Nigel Adams, Home Office deputy head for security Stephen McPartland and Culture Minister Nadine Dorries. It is still difficult to assess what innovations in domestic policy will be adopted, but experts are confident that Liz Truss will continue the course of the previous Prime Minister Boris Johnson and serious changes should not be expected.

The index quotes are traded within the global side channel, approaching the lower border. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which has not weakened even against the background of the current upward correction: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations continues expanding and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.

Support levels: 7177, 6994 | Resistance levels: 7335, 7565​

 

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AUDUSD - A fall is possible.​

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C ended and a downward correction develops as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, a correction has developed as the fourth wave iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C is forming, within which the wave (iii) of v is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.66 – 0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.701.

 

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Shares of The Walt Disney, the leader in the global entertainment industry, are on a corrective downtrend at 110.

On the daily chart, the quotes have left the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 80–108, having overcome the resistance line at 107 with a gap that can be worked out this week. On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that despite the working out of the price gap of 108–117, the downside movement potential is limited. The most promising at the moment looks like a possible reversal and subsequent growth of the asset with the consolidation above the initial correction level of 23.6% Fibonacci around 117.

Technical indicators hold a buy signal despite a significant slowdown: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range actively narrows, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming bars with a downward trend in the buying zone.​

 

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XAUUSD - Quotes failed to consolidate at the August highs​

Gold prices are moderately declining, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The XAU/USD pair failed to consolidate on Tuesday at its local highs of August 30, reacting to the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from the US.

The downtrend in demand for gold, which began in early August, is still observed. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in the precious metal corrected from 125.8 thousand to 117.7 thousand, thus, the tendency for sellers to reduce their positions continues. "Bears" still hold the lead in market positions, but the number of positions of "bulls" has also significantly adjusted, amounting to 21.925 thousand against 53.688 thousand for sellers. This week, buyers liquidated 0.615 thousand contracts, while sellers liquidated 2.989 thousand.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range widens marginally, following the resumption of "bearish" momentum in the ultra-short term. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is reversing downwards after a short rise at the end of the last trading week, indicating the risks of the development of "bearish" dynamics in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 1700, 1720, 1730, 1752.87 | Support levels: 1688.5, 1675, 1660.1, 1644.3​

 

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USDCAD - Pending Bank of Canada interest rate decision​

The Canadian currency could not resist the pressure from the US dollar for a long time, and the USDCAD pair reached annual highs of around 1.322. Even today, the direction of quotations may change after the Bank of Canada announces its decision on the interest rate.

Most experts suggest that 75 basis points will increase the rate, and the interest rate will reach 3.25%, making it the highest among the world's leading economies. Several experts are confident in a more serious change in value against the backdrop of positive data on Canada's gross domestic product (GDP), which added 0.8% in the second quarter, which allows the regulator to act more aggressively without fear of a recession in the economy.

The US dollar topped 110 in the USD Index for the first time since 2002 and is currently holding at 110.4 following the release of the non-manufacturing PMI, which hit 56.9 in August, well above analysts' forecast of a decline to 55.1 points. Today, members of the US Open Market Committee Thomas Barkin and Loretta Meister will make speeches, from which traders expect hints on further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy and, in particular, on the issue of changing interest rates.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.2700–1.3400, approaching the resistance line. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.3223, 1.338 | Support levels: 1.3118, 1.2887​

 

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XRPUSD - Downward dynamics​

The XRP coin is moving within a corrective sideways channel, reversing downwards, and is currently at 0.3166.

H4
On the four-hour chart of the asset, the local downward wave is a narrow corridor within which the price rebounded from the resistance line at 0.3417 and reversed downwards with the target at the lower border of the 0.27 range. Technical indicators gave a signal to sell: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is actively decreasing in the sell zone.

D1
On the daily chart, a sideways channel forms with dynamic boundaries of 0.2950–0.4240, while the price continues to decline towards the support line at 0.2950. Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downward bars. In general, both charts indicate a likely continuation of the downward movement, the global target is to exit the sideways channel and decline to a historical low of around 0.2350.

Resistance levels: 0.3520, 0.4215 | Support levels: 0.2950, 0.2350
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USDCHF - the pair has reached a strong resistance level of 0.9850​

The USDCHF pair has reached the resistance level of 0.985, and the probability of further growth remains against the backdrop of the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the regulator may raise the rate by 75 basis points, which will strengthen the position of the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the EU economy is under pressure: the lack of energy resources, rising inflation, and a slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and since Switzerland has close economic ties with the EU, negative factors are reflected in the macroeconomic indicators of this country as well. On Monday, Q2 GDP was published: the value consolidated around 2.8% YoY, which was worse than analysts' expectations of 3.0%, and it added 0.3% QoQ compared to the forecast of 0.4%.

Thus, the likelihood of further weakening of the Swiss franc remains, and the long-term trend in the USD/CHF pair is likely to continue. For the development of positive dynamics, the "bulls" need to overcome the resistance level of 0.9850 and consolidate above it, and then the target for purchases will be 1.0040 around the highs of May-June 2022.

The medium-term trend remains upward. Last week the market participants broke through the target zone 3 (0.9784–0.9771), and the next target for purchases is zone 4 (0.9926–0.9912). The key support is shifting to 0.9729–0.9715, and if the price corrects into this area, then new long positions in the asset should be considered.

Resistance levels: 0.985, 1.004 | Support levels: 0.965, 0.96​

 

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EURUSD - The euro is falling under the pressure of poor statistics​

Investors are highly likely to expect a rate hike of 75 basis points. The tighter monetary stimulus will put unprecedented pressure on households and industry, and is likely to slow economic growth, leading to higher unemployment, said Jerome Powell, the head of the department, but he considers these consequences inevitable in the context of the targeted inflation containment. Regulatory speakers signal that the agency will stick to a hawkish policy until consumer prices decline steadily, implying an interest rate hike to 4% by the end of 2022 / beginning of 2023.

The long-term trend is downwards. Market participants broke through 0.9950 and consolidated below it, and the next target for the fall is 0.9800, and it is worth opening short positions during the correction from 1.

The medium-term trend is downwards, and the "bears" have broken through the target zone 2 (0.9944–0.9923) this week and are trying to keep the price below. If the trading week closes below this range, the next target will be zone 3 (0.9732–0.9711), and the trend's key resistance will move to 1.0096–1.0075.

Resistance levels: 1, 1.03 | Support levels: 0.98, 0.962​