Video | Market Technical | Solid ECN

[Solid ECN]

USDJPY - Dollar is falling ahead of Jerome Powell's speech​

Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions in anticipation of the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as part of the symposium starting today in Jackson Hole, hoping to get hints on further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy. To date, analysts estimate the likelihood of an interest rate hike in September by 50 basis points and by 75 basis points about the same. In addition, market participants hope that the Fed Chairman will comment on the prospects for tightening the existing parameters in the face of worsening forecasts for the energy crisis.

Macroeconomic statistics from Japan published today does not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Meanwhile, Corporate Service Price Index corrected from 2.0% to 2.1% in July from a forecast of 2.2%, Foreign Bond Investment fell by 79.2 billion yen for the week ended August 19 after a record increase of 1154.7 billion yen over the previous period, and Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks for the same period fell from 45.3 billion yen to 28.5 billion yen.

The Ministry of Finance of Japan presented statistics on the level of oil purchases: last month, the country increased the transportation of "black gold" from Russia by 65.4% compared to the same period in 2021, and by 10% from the Middle East. However, Russian liquefied natural gas imports corrected downwards by 26.1%, and coal imports fell by 40.1%. Despite the fact that the rhetoric of the Japanese authorities is aimed at a phased reduction in the use of raw materials from the Russian Federation, official Tokyo announced the conclusion of contracts with the new operator of the Sakhalin-2 project, LLC Sakhalin Energy.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD tends to reverse into the descending plane preserving the previous buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows a more confident decline, testing the level of "80" for a breakdown. Current readings of the indicator signal in favor of a corrective decline in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 137.5, 138.5, 139.5, 140.5 | Support levels: 136.5, 135.57, 134.54, 134​

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD - Traders are confident in the acceleration of the pace of rate hikes by the Bank of England

A regular meeting of the Bank of England is scheduled for September 15, at which the issue of further tightening monetary policy will be discussed. Judging by the dynamics of futures, traders expect an increase in interest rates to at least 75.0 basis points from the current 50 points, but a 100 basis point increase is not ruled out. These options became more actively discussed after the price of natural gas on the London Intercontinental Exchange reached 3.1 dollars per thousand cubic meters, which makes imports much more expensive and increases the burden on consumers.

The US dollar retreated somewhat from its highs and is trading at 108.600 in the USD Index. Investors reacted weakly to yesterday's data on durable goods orders, which remained in June, although basic orders rose slightly, adding 0.3%. The US housing market is still experiencing some difficulties, as evidenced by yesterday's data on the index of pending sales: the index fell by 1.0% in July, which indicates a large number of pending transactions.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator continues to expand in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1883, 1.2219 | Support levels: 1.1717, 1.1452.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

NZDUSD - Trades within the global downtrend​

According to the morning report from Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ), retail sales corrected by –2.3% in June, reflecting the negative dynamics for the second consecutive quarter after falling by 0.9% in the previous period. This time, ten out of fifteen retail sectors showed a decline. Thus, their sales of cars and spare parts fell by 5.8%, while the sector of durable electronic goods decreased by 6.1%. The leading positions are still held by food delivery services, adding 3.3% over the reporting period. Thus, inflation continues to pressure households, preventing the quotes of the New Zealand currency from changing the trend and starting a systematic strengthening of the exchange rate.

Meanwhile, the American currency continues its corrective dynamics, consolidating slightly below 109.000 in the USD Index. Markets are looking ahead to US Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) data today, and with forecasts of a quarterly decline of 0.8%, the pressure on the US Fed ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is increasing significantly. Also, weekly data on initial jobless claims will be published on Thursday. The indicator is expected to grow from 250.0K to 253.0K, which, in turn, may harm the national currency rate.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, gradually approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading, forming downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6247, 0.6450 | Support levels: 0.6162, 0.6058​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY - US economy downturn continues in Q2​

The price index for corporate goods and services remained at 2.1% YoY, slightly inferior to the 2.2% that analysts forecasted. This morning, data on the core consumer price index in Tokyo in August were published, according to which inflation rose in annual terms to 2.6% from 2.3% earlier. Full inflation-adjusted for fuel and food rose to 2.9% from 2.5% previously. As a rule, prices in Tokyo are very often close to the general value throughout the country, and the fact that it did not exceed 3.0% is a positive signal that allows the Bank of Japan to implement its policy of negative rates for some time.

The US economy remains in recession. It was confirmed by yesterday's data, according to which the Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.6%, slightly better than the analysts' forecast of –0.8%. The negative dynamics are due to a drop in the volume of private investment in inventories and consolidated capital and in spending by the federal and local governments. On the other hand, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased to 243K from 245K a week earlier, which led to an adjustment in the total number of citizens receiving payments from the state to 1.415M from 1.434M a week earlier.

The trading instrument moves within the global uptrend, forming the Head and shoulders pattern. Technical indicators maintain a weakening buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range has begun to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 137.45, 139.45 | Support levels: 136.15, 132.85​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCAD - Canadian labor market continues to recover​

The Canadian currency is trying to win back losses against the US dollar against the backdrop of positive macroeconomic statistics from the national labor market. Now the USDCAD pair is correcting downwards, trading around 1.2954.

As Statistics Canada reported yesterday, employment in the service sector rose by 0.6% in June, and almost all areas showed positive dynamics: education, the indicator added 1.9%, food – 1.3%, and healthcare – by 0.4 %. During this period, the total number of vacancies increased by 3.2%, which means the appearance for the third consecutive month of more than 1.0M additional unfilled positions and, as a result, an increase in demand for labor by 1.4% compared to May of this year – to 17.7M. The most demanded are still specialists in the healthcare sector, where the rate of posted vacancies rose by 40.8% YoY and by 0.2% MoM. These data indicate that the Canadian labor market is starting to grow rapidly, which will undoubtedly positively impact the national economy.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.2600–1.3200 towards the support line. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range began to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming downward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2990, 1.3222 | Support levels: 1.2893, 1.2727​

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD - long-term downtrend persists​

The AUDUSD pair is correcting around 0.696 against the background of market participants' expectations of the continuation of the "hawkish" policy of the US Fed.

Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), the head of the department Jerome Powell will speak at the symposium in Jackson Hole. It is expected that the official will announce plans to continue the current tightening of monetary parameters and, in particular, to raise the interest rate in September by another 75 basis points, which, in turn, will provide the US currency with moderate short-term support. Despite the fact that in July, inflation in the USA slightly decreased to 8.5% from 9.1%, its impact on the national economy remains significant.

The long-term trend is downward. After reaching the support level of 0.6865, the AUDUSD pair corrected to the level of 0.699, if it is held, the movement of quotations will continue with the targets at 0.6865, 0.668.

The medium-term trend changed to a downtrend last week. The key support 0.6936–0.6916 was broken out by the bidders, and now a correction is developing, one of the targets of which may be the 0.7078 – 0.7058 area. After testing the resistance zone 0.7078–0.7058, it is worth considering new short positions with targets at 0.6736 – 0.6716.

Resistance levels: 0.6990, 0.7030, 0.7130 | Support levels: 0.6865, 0.6680.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

The shares of Meta Platforms, which owns the world's largest social network Facebook, are falling around 174.

On the daily chart, a global downtrend continues to form, within which the price moves within a sideways corridor of 155 – 180 near its lower border. On the four-hour chart, there are currently no drivers for the growth of the trading instrument, and if the quotes consolidated below the year's low of 155.8, the asset might continue to decline to 135.2. In case of an upward movement, the nearest resistance is the initial correction of 23.6% Fibonacci around 201.

Technical indicators confirm the likelihood of continuation of the current trend: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD - The head of the US Federal Reserve supported the preservation of the "hawkish" course of monetary policy

The European economy is slowing down amid reports from representatives of PJSC Gazprom about stopping the gas pumping from August 31 to September 2 due to technical work on the turbine of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Experts doubt that infrastructure repairs will last only a few days, considering the scenario of a complete blocking of Russian energy supplies, which, in turn, will push gas prices to new record levels. Thus, according to data at the close of trading on Friday, a thousand cubic meters on the London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cost $3,507, a maximum over the past 26 years.

Also, the quotes of the EURUSD pair are under serious pressure from the dynamics of the US dollar, which set another all-time high, exceeding 109.2 in the USD Index. The reason for such strong growth was the reaction of the markets to the statements made by the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, during his speech at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. The official noted the need to adjust the interest rate to achieve the main goal – reducing inflation and acknowledged that restoring price stability will take time and tough actions from the financial authorities. Powell added that the regulator plans to bring the rate to a stable level (2.25–2.5%), at which it will be held for some time, and investors, assuming that this level can be reached this year, have stepped up their activities.

The trading instrument is kept within the global downwards channel, falling towards the support line.

Resistance levels: 1, 1.0322 | Support levels: 0.988, 0.9660​

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD - The trading instrument develops a "bearish" momentum​

Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported an increase in retail sales index in monthly terms by 1.3% compared to 0.2% last month and experts' forecasts of 0.3%, while the dynamics in annual terms consolidated around 16.5%. Department store sales increased the most, adding 3.8% or 67.7M dollars, while analysts estimate that sales in clothing grew by 3.3%, food by 1.2%, and cafes and restaurants — by 1.8%. The only segment that showed negative dynamics was the sale of household goods, which decreased by 1.1% or 68.8M dollars. Building permit statistics are expected to be published tomorrow, and analysts suggest that the figure will fall by another 2.0% according to the global trend.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting, completing the formation of the head and shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators are preparing for a new reversal and have given a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6927, 0.705 | Support levels: 0.6806, 0.6681​

 

[SOLIDECN]

NZDUSD - The pair is preparing to update the July low​

The USD is strengthening after Jerome Powell's speech at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole. In particular, the need was voiced to continue raising interest rates by 1–1.25% during subsequent meetings of the regulator. After that, the value should remain high for some time to reduce inflationary pressure. It was also noted that the American labor market is quite stable, but not balanced, and the national economy is starting to slow down. Nevertheless, the USD is strengthening against other currencies and is likely to continue its upward trend in the future.

In addition, the governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Adrian Orr spoke at the symposium in Jackson Hole and said that the markets are waiting for at least two more interest rate hikes by the New Zealand regulator. In his speech, the official was cautious, mentioning the decline in retail sales in the country, which indicates that high interest rates have a negative impact on economic growth. Thus, the indicator for Q2 decreased by 2.3% after a 0.9% decrease in the previous period, while analysts expected -1.7%.

Given the plans of the US Fed, it can be assumed that the USD will strengthen in the medium and long term, and the NZDUSD pair will update the July minimum, continuing to decline to the area of 0.595.

The long-term trend is downward. Last week, the support level of 0.6200 was broken by the bidders, and now the price is aiming at 0.6055, in case of a breakdown of which the decline will continue with a target at 0.5950.

Within the framework of the mid–term downtrend last week, the bidders broke through the target zone 2 (0.6188 – 0.6174), and now the asset has headed to the area of 0.6048 - 0.6034. The trend boundary is shifting to the levels 0.6255–0.6241. If the price reaches these levels, it is worth considering new short positions with the first target at the minimum of the current week.

Resistance levels: 0.6240, 0.6345 | Support levels: 0.6055, 0.5950​

 

[SOLIDECN]

The shares of PayPal, the American debit payment system, are correcting around 92.​

On the daily chart, the price is above the resistance line of a wide downwards channel with dynamic boundaries at 55 – 85, however, a trend change is unlikely since an attempt to overcome the local high at the beginning of the month at 102 was unsuccessful.

On the four-hour chart, it is clearly seen that also to the rebound of quotes from the local high, the formation of the reversal Head and shoulders pattern with the Neck line at 90 has almost completed, which significantly increases the prospects for decline.

Technical indicators have weakened the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming downward bars in the buying zone.

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY - strong dollar keeps the pair from falling​

Since the beginning of the week, macroeconomic releases have not put pressure on the Japanese currency: the unemployment rate in July remained at June (2.6%), and the ratio of the number of vacancies and applicants improved to 1.29 from 1.27 a month earlier, although analysts did not expect changes. Among the negative aspects, it is worth highlighting another decrease in the index of leading indicators, which amounted to 100.9 points instead of 101.2 points earlier. Tomorrow, data on the volume of industrial production for July will be published: according to forecasts, the figure will fall by 0.5% after rising by 8.9% in June, which could become a serious factor in pressure on the yen.

The US dollar retreated from yesterday's highs and trades around 108.7 in the USD Index. Investors continue to evaluate the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Still, this week will be filled with statements by the heads of regional federal reserve banks, who will share their views on the prospects for national monetary policy. The local dynamics of quotations can be seriously affected by today's data on the number of open vacancies in the labor market from JOLTS, which will be published in the evening: analysts suggest that in July, the figure will decrease to 10.475M from 10.698M, which is likely to hurt the national currency.

The trading instrument moves within the global uptrend, forming a Head and shoulders pattern. Technical indicators keep a buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 139.3, 143 | Support levels: 136.7, 132.2​

 

[SOLIDECN]

CAC 40 - French stock market is actively declining​

The stock index of France continued to decline this week after the financial authorities of the eurozone announced the continuation of aggressive monetary policy at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. At the moment, CAC 40 quotes are correcting down, being at 6251. European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has warned that central banks must act decisively to fight inflation despite recession risks. In turn, the Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said that he had no doubt that the European regulator would continue the policy of raising interest rates, bringing them to 1%-2% by the end of this year. The next meeting of the ECB will take place on September 8, and experts suggest that the value can be adjusted to 1.00% from 0.50%.

In the domestic bond market, the yield on the entire line of debt securities continues to rise, putting pressure on stock assets. The rate on popular 10-year government bonds is at 2.114%, up from 1.365% at the beginning of the month, and on long-term 20-year bonds it is 2.441%, up from 2.277%, which were demonstrated last week.

Quotes of the index reversed and began to show an active decline. At the same time, technical indicators have already given an updated signal for the start of sales: the fast Alligator indicator EMAs crossed the signal line from above, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved to the sales area, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 6132, 5840 | Resistance levels: 6354, 6615​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCAD - Upward dynamics – in the future​

After renewing the maximum of August 23, the USDCAD pair is correcting, preparing to continue the uptrend with the target at 1.32 against the background of the strengthening US dollar. Quotes of the American currency began to grow actively, reacting to the rhetoric of the financial authorities as part of the speeches at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which ended last week. Global central bankers heightened investor fears of a slowdown in economic growth but continued monetary tightening, which catalyzed the USD Index, reaching a new high since late 2002 at 109.4.

Some influence on the positions of the trading instrument is exerted by the dynamics of prices for Crude Oil, which are currently strengthening to 97.1, supporting the Canadian dollar and the Canadian economy, which is the largest oil producer. If oil quotes decline again, the national currency will correct downwards.

The long-term trend remains upwards, and within its framework, the high of August 23 was renewed at the resistance level of 1.3065. The traders held the level, so now we can observe a downward correction, but if the quotes break through it, the growth will continue to 1.32.

The medium-term trend is upwards. After the breakout of the target zone 1.2966 – 1.2945, the trading instrument went to zone 2 (1.3192–1.3170). At the moment, a downward correction can be observed; if, within its framework, the price tests the key support of the trend 1.2853–1.2832, then it will be possible to consider new long positions with the first target around the high of the current week 1.3074.

Resistance levels: 1.3065, 1.32 | Support levels: 1.2905, 1.274​

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD - Negative statistics from Australia put pressure on quotes​

Australia's housing market data for July was released yesterday, with building permits falling sharply by 17.2% against a forecast of 5.0%, while construction of the rest of the property fell by a significant 43.5%, which was the second contraction in a row, and this allows us to speak about the negative impact of the increase in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which began in May this year. The Q2 volume of completed construction works decreased by 3.8%, although analysts expected an increase of 0.9%, while the volume of issued building permits for the construction of private homes increased by 0.7% after falling by 1.8% a month earlier. Also to the construction sector, the negative dynamics continue in the lending sector: the rate of loans issued is actively declining, and in July, the overall increase corrected to 0.5% from 0.6% a month earlier, and for the private sector — the sector — to 0.7% from 0.9% on the back of increased cost of servicing loans due to a sharp increase in interest rates.

On the daily chart, the price is correcting, completing the formation of the Head and shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators have reversed and are holding a local sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator cross the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6928, 0.7122 | Support levels: 0.6847, 0.6681​

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD - Negative statistics from Australia put pressure on quotes​

Australia's housing market data for July was released yesterday, with building permits falling sharply by 17.2% against a forecast of 5.0%, while construction of the rest of the property fell by a significant 43.5%, which was the second contraction in a row, and this allows us to speak about the negative impact of the increase in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which began in May this year. The Q2 volume of completed construction works decreased by 3.8%, although analysts expected an increase of 0.9%, while the volume of issued building permits for the construction of private homes increased by 0.7% after falling by 1.8% a month earlier. Also to the construction sector, the negative dynamics continue in the lending sector: the rate of loans issued is actively declining, and in July, the overall increase corrected to 0.5% from 0.6% a month earlier, and for the private sector — the sector — to 0.7% from 0.9% on the back of increased cost of servicing loans due to a sharp increase in interest rates.

On the daily chart, the price is correcting, completing the formation of the Head and shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators have reversed and are holding a local sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator cross the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6928, 0.7122 | Support levels: 0.6847, 0.6681​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY - "bulls" are preparing to update the June high​

Today, macroeconomic data that came out in Japan supported the quotes of the national currency. Industrial Production in July was 1.0%, exceeding the negative forecast of analysts at the level of -0.5%, while the volume of Retail Sales in annual terms for the same period was at the level of 2.4% against preliminary estimates of 1.9 %. Against this background, the USD/JPY pair fell to 138.30; however, the long-term trend remains upward.

Also today, Bank of Japan's board member Junko Nakagawa made a speech, based on whose statements it can be concluded that the regulator is still committed to maintaining the financial stimulus program to combat the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the official, the regulator will be cautious in decisions on monetary policy, and its main task is not to interfere with the actively recovering economy.

Further dynamics of USDJPY will depend on macroeconomic statistics from the US coming this week. Market participants are waiting for the publication of data on Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Analysts suggest that the figure will add 300 thousand new jobs. If the actual value turns out to be close to the forecast or exceeds it, then the US dollar is waiting for further strengthening, and the USDJPY pair is likely to renew the June high around 139.2.

The long-term trend is upward. Yesterday, the instrument came as close as possible to the level of 139.2, in case of a breakout of which, the growth will continue with the targets of 141 and 142.5, and if it is held, a correction to the area of 136 – 135.3 will take place.

As part of the medium-term uptrend, the pair reached the target zone 2 (138.75–138.32). The "bulls" need to consolidate above this area, and then the next target of the upward movement will be the target zone 3 (143.11–142.67). The key trend support is shifting to the levels of 134.94–134.54. If it is tested as part of a correction, traders should consider new long positions in the asset.

Resistance levels: 139.2, 141, 142.55 | Support levels: 136, 135.3, 132.2​

 

[SOLIDECN]

The shares of Microsoft, a global giant in the development and sale of operating systems and software for computers, are trading in a corrective trend around 261.

On the daily chart, the price failed to consolidate within the uptrend and returned to the global downtrend with dynamic boundaries of 220 – 270, having broken the resistance line at 272. On the four-hour chart, it is clearly seen that the support line at 259.00 acts as a barrier to further decline, which is also the lower limit of the local rising channel, in which the price is held. The consolidation below it will open the way for quotes to the lows of the year around 241.

Technical indicators keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downwards bars in the sell zone.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD - inflation in the EU has set another record

The European currency is resisting the growth of the dollar, trading around the 1.0014 mark after the publication of a block of macroeconomic data yesterday.

Thus, consumer prices in the EU in August added 0.5%, which led to an increase in the annual inflation rate to 9.1% from 8.9% (food and energy prices rose the most), while local inflation in countries bloc increased almost everywhere: in Italy, it reached 8.4% from 7.9% a month earlier, and in France, the figure fell to 5.8% instead of 6.1%. Rising consumer prices will require European Central Bank (ECB) officials to continue their "hawkish" policy, and already at the meeting on September 8, the interest rate could be raised immediately by 1.00%.

The American currency in yesterday's trading again renewed the annual maximum around 109.100 in the USD Index after the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, in his statement, clarified the "restrictive level of stability" of the interest rate announced by the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. That mark is in the 3.5% region, well above the current rate, Williams said, but experts are now evaluating the likelihood that the agency will want to reach that level in one step at its next meeting on September 21, putting significant pressure on the US economy, which and so is going through a recession.



The trading instrument is kept within the global downward channel, correcting towards the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0095, 1.0321 | Support levels: 0.9940, 0.9753​

 

[SOLIDECN]

XAUUSD - demand for gold is falling again​

Due to the strengthening of the USD Index to the high of the year at 109, the XAUUSD pair is correcting in a downtrend around 1705.

The reason for the positive dynamics of the US dollar was several factors, the key among which was the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, at the symposium in Jackson Hole. The official gave the markets a clear signal that the regulator will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is brought under control, after which the rate will be kept at a “stable level” for some time to consolidate the effect of the measures already taken. According to him, the restoration of price stability will require a decisive use of central bank instruments, so experts suggest that at the September meeting, the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75,0 basis points for the third time in a row. However, yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, noted that the optimal level of the indicator is 3.5%, which hints at a possible adjustment immediately by 1.00%. A sharp rise in value is always a negative sign for gold.

Serious changes continue in demand for the metal from investors. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, net speculative positions in the asset decreased to 125.8K from 141.2K contracts. If we pay attention to the activity of traders, then the sellers held the lead in cash-backed contracts, reducing them by 2,739K positions, while buyers liquidated only 99 contracts.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument stays within the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 1770.0–1630.0. Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept well below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram continues to fall in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1721, 1770 | Support levels: 1696, 1650​