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GBPUSD - Trading instrument is preparing to continue to decline

After an unsuccessful attempt to break through the resistance level of 1.2262, the GBP/USD pair fell to the level of 1.2020 and is now preparing to continue its downtrend against the background of increasing inflationary pressure in the UK. Data on the Consumer Price Index were published the day before, which in annual terms amounted to 10.1% against the projected 9.8%, and in monthly terms it amounted to 0.6%, while market expectations were at the level of 0.4%. Thus, despite the aggressive increase in interest rates by the Bank of England, officials have not yet been able to contain inflation. Probably, at the next meeting of the regulator, scheduled for September 15, the value will be adjusted again, but the effectiveness of this measure remains in question.

The long-term trend is downward. Yesterday, market participants attempted to break through the support level of 1.2020, but failed to do so the first time. If successful, the decline in quotes of the trading instrument will continue with the target at the July low of 1.1768.

The medium-term trend is upward. The growth target is the zone of 1.2448–1.2415; however, as part of the correction, the quotes may test the key trend support at 1.1932–1.1896, after which traders should consider long positions with the first target at last week's high at 1.2270.

Resistance levels: 1.2262, 1.2655 | Support levels: 1.2020, 1.1768.​

 

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XRPUSD - Murrey analysis

The XRPUSD pair continues to rise for the third month in a row, correcting for a long-term downtrend as part of the overall market trend. The trading instrument has formed an ascending channel and is trying to resume growth from its lower border. The key “bullish” level is 0.3906 (Murrey [8/8]), a breakdown of which will give the prospect of further upward dynamics to 0.4150 (Murrey [+2/8]) and 0.4330 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%). To resume a serious decline, the price should drop below 0.3662 (Murrey [6/8]) and leave the ascending channel, in which case the targets of the downward dynamics will be 0.3418 (Murrey [4/8]), 0.3296 (Murrey [3/8]) and 0.3174 (Murrey [2/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are turning horizontally, the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone, Stochastic reverses downwards, and the uptrend continues, however, a price reversal is not excluded soon.

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.415, 0.433 | Support levels: 0.3662, 0.3418, 0.3296, 0.3174​

 

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USDCAD - Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, a Bullish Flag price pattern is forming, the completion of which is expected above the resistance level of 1.2960, since the breakout of its upper border was carried out by impulsive green candles in the form of a Three Advancing White Soldiers pattern. However, the movement slowed down with the appearance of a Hanging Man reversal candlestick pattern below the level of 1.2960, which is observed in the area of prevailing "bullish" activity. Therefore, to confirm a reversal at the local top, the formation of other "bearish" signals is required. Since the asset continued to grow after the formation of this pattern, one can assume that the quotes will continue their uptrend or consolidation in a narrow range of 1.2900–1.2960. If the "bulls" manage to successfully overcome the level of 1.2960 and consolidate above it, one should expect the quotes to continue moving towards the area of 1.3228–1.3630. An alternative scenario is possible in case of overcoming the support level of 1.2762 by the "bears". Then the negative dynamics may intensify up to the level of 1.2295.

D1
On the daily chart, there is a Falling Wedge price pattern. At the moment, it is clear that the price has broken through its upper limit, but confirmation of this has not yet been received. In addition, at the support level of 1.2762, one of the varieties of the Morning Star candlestick pattern has formed, which indicates the prevailing "bullish" sentiment. In case of successful testing of the broken level and fixing the price above 1.2960, the quotes will most likely go higher, to the area of 1.3228–1.3630.

Support levels: 1.2762, 1.2534, 1.2295 | Resistance levels: 1.296, 1.3228, 1.363

 

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XAUUSD - Investor demand for gold is actively increasing

The XAUUSD pair is correcting in a downtrend at 1764 amid strengthening US dollar positions: the quotes rose from 105.3 to 106.6 in the USD Index due to several factors, including confirmation of the US Federal Reserve's plans to tighten monetary policy. Thus, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), published yesterday, outlined the department's plans for September, which include raising interest rates by at least 50 basis points to combat record inflation.

Another factor in the local downward dynamics of gold was data on industrial production in China: the figure was 3.8%, which is lower than 3.9% a month earlier and significantly lower than 4.6% expected by analysts, which confirmed investors' fears about the stability of the economy of one of the largest importers and producers of precious metals.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is above the resistance line of the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries 1780 – 1650. Despite the local slowdown, technical indicators strengthen the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving above the signal line, while the AO oscillator histogram remains in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1782, 1847 | Support levels: 1753, 1696​

 

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GBPUSD - UK inflation tops 10%

The pound continues to lose positions against the backdrop of weak macroeconomic data and at the moment GBPUSD is correcting around 1.2039. Consumer inflation in the UK, the first among developed countries, exceeded the 10% threshold and amounted to 10.1%, rising from 9.4% a month earlier, with a monthly increase of only 0.6%. Even more worrisome is the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy, climbing to 6.2% from 5.8%, catalysing the Bank of England to be more "hawkish" in terms of monetary tightening.

In turn, the US dollar is holding above 106 in the USD Index, sagging slightly after yesterday's US Retail Sales data. The index in July fell to 0.0% from 0.8% in the previous month, which disappointed analysts who had expected a rise of 1.0%. Obviously, the continuing decline in Retail Sales is a direct consequence of rising prices, which the US Federal Reserve is unable to seriously influence. The Core Retail Sales Index, in turn, also slowed to 0.4% from 0.9% a month earlier.

GBPUSD continues to trade within the global downward channel, retreating somewhat from the resistance line. Technical indicators are ready to reverse and give a signal for the start of sales: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations is expanding in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.

Support levels: 1.2000, 1.1756 | Resistance levels: 1.2218, 1.2588​

 

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EURUSD - Employment data in the EU reassured investors

The EURUSD pair moves within a corrective trend around 1.0169. Despite a significant increase in fuel and energy tariffs, the EU economies remain stable, as evidenced by macroeconomic data for the second quarter, published yesterday: gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% QoQ and by 3.9% YoY in terms of 0.7% and 4.0% predicted but still a positive result. The overall employment rate in the region rose to 163.412M from 162.977M, showing a quarterly increase of 0.3%. However, analysts believe that the economic outlook in the euro area is negative: in the second half of the year, GDP will begin to contract under the pressure of high inflation and disruptions in supply chains, but for now, the European Central Bank (ECB) has enough cushion to raise interest rates in order not to provoke a recession, and this may provide some support for the European currency.

The US currency is held at levels above 106 in the USD Index, as investors have gained some confidence in the further actions of the US Federal Reserve. The minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released yesterday indicate that the agency will continue its hawkish course until inflation returns to its 2.0% target, so a 50.0 base interest rate hike is tentatively scheduled for September. Considering that price growth in July slightly decreased to 8.5% instead of 9.1% earlier, a slowdown in monetary policy tightening can be justified.

The trading instrument moves downwards within the global downward channel, reversing at the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a poor sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars, approaching the transition level.

Resistance levels: 1.0260, 1.0408 | Support levels: 1.0116, 0.9957​

 

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AUDUSD - Technical analysis​

H4
On the four-hour chart, under the resistance level of 0.7030, a Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern was formed, after which the trading instrument showed a decrease to the area of 0.6912. In addition, the Bear Marubozu pattern was included in this model, emphasizing the predominance of sellers. Currently, quotes have formed a Hanging Man figure, which in this situation may mean a continuation of the downtrend. A likely scenario is a decline to the support level of 0.6862, overcoming which will allow the "bears" to go lower, to the levels of 0.6680, 0.6420. An alternative scenario can be realized if the "bulls" hold their positions and the quotes recover to the resistance level: a breakout of the key level of 0.7030 will open the way for buyers to the range of 0.7184–0.7400.

D1
On the daily chart, under the resistance level of 0.7184, a reversal candlestick pattern Evening Doji Star is observed, after which the asset began to decline down to the level of 0.6912. This pattern is a strong signal to alert traders to declining long positions, giving the "bears" an opportunity to correct the price down. A more likely scenario at the moment is a downtrend towards the key support level of 0.6862. A breakdown of this level will mean the final weakening of the "bulls", which will strengthen the downtrend of the instrument to the zone of 0.6680–0.6420.

Support levels: 0.6862, 0.668, 0.642 | Resistance levels: 0.7030, 0.7184, 0.74

 

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USDCAD - Canada loses revenue due to lower export fuel prices​

The Canadian currency lost its leading position against the US dollar amid a decline in revenues received by the country from energy exports. According to Statistics Canada, the Commodity Price Index lost 7.4% in July. Similar dynamics led to inflation adjusting to 7.6% from 8.1%, but food prices, which are the second key component of the indicator, continued to rise, adding 0.9% in July. This movement is clearly seen in the calculation of Core CPI, excluding Food and Energy prices: the figure corrected to 6.6% from 6.5% a month earlier, and is now the main problem for the Bank of Canada.

In turn, the US dollar continues to grow, the day before exceeding 107 in the USD Index. The main reason for the positive dynamics was the report on Initial Jobless Claims, which for the first time in a long time showed a decrease in the number of applications to 250 thousand after 252 thousand recorded a week earlier, while analysts expected an increase in the number of applications to 265 thousand.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is trading within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.2600–1.3200, rising again towards the resistance line. The EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator signals a possible growth, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new rising bars, being in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2739 | Resistance levels: 1.2985, 1.3133​

 

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The EURUSD pair is trading in a downtrend, currently at 1.003.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the global corridor with dynamic boundaries 1.024 – 0.97, getting ready to test the key historical support around 1. The four-hour chart shows that the potential for a downward movement is quite high, and the nearest solid support for the trading instrument can only be the initial trend of 61.8% of the Fibonacci extension around 0.9814. If the quotes fix below it, the downward dynamics may continue up to the basic trend of 100.0% on the Fibonacci extension around 0.9494.

Technical indicators keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.​

 

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Against the background of the growth of the American currency, the GBPUSD pair is correcting around 1.1826.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the long-term channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.14 – 1.214, preparing to test the year's low at 1.1741. The four-hour chart shows that the year's low coincides with the initial trend of 61.8% on the Fibonacci extension (1.1741), and in the case of consolidation below it, the downward movement may continue and reach the basic trend of 100% on the Fibonacci extension around 1.1400, which corresponds to the support line of the downward channel.

Technical indicators confirm the high probability of a downward trend and keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.​

 

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Due to the continued growth of the US dollar, the AUDUSD pair is correcting, trading around 0.6899.​

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell again. It stood at 3.4% in July, indicating an acute labor shortage in the national labor market. However, the number of unemployed amounted to 474K, less than 480.0K vacancies. Tomorrow, investors are waiting for the publication of data on business activity indices in the leading sectors of the economy, and there are no signals yet that the decline in indicators will stop. Thus, the value for the service sector may fall below 50.9 points, and for the manufacturing sector – less below 56.2 points.

Another reason for the downward dynamics of the AUDUSD quotes is the growth of the US dollar, which overcame the key mark of 108 in the USD Index yesterday, reacting to the first signs of a change in the trend in the US housing market. The fact is that rates on 30-year mortgage loans, which have been continuously growing since the beginning of the year, corrected in August to 5.13% from 5.22% a month earlier amid a slowdown in inflation from 9.1% to 8.5%, which, in turn, may have a positive impact on the statistics on the housing market, which is experiencing a demand crisis, being at its lows since May 2020.

On the global chart of the asset, the trading instrument is correcting within the local downward channel, falling towards the support level. Technical indicators are preparing for a new reversal and have almost given a new sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are preparing to cross the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has come close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.6968, 0.7122 | Support levels: 0.6853, 0.6711​

 

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AUDUSD, H4
On the four-hour chart, above the level of 0.6846, there is a formation of a Hammer candlestick pattern, which may warn market participants that the asset is in the area of low prices and will soon begin to unfold. In addition, a Doji pattern was formed, signaling the uncertainty in the market and the equality of the forces of "bulls" and "bears". This pattern usually indicates reversals in the instrument; however, it requires additional "bullish" confirmation in the local basis. Thus, at the moment, it is most likely that the quotes of the AUD/USD pair will fall to the support level of 0.6846, overcoming which will open the way for the "bears" to the zone of 0.6680 – 0.6401. An alternative scenario is possible after fixing the quotes of the trading instrument above the resistance level of 0.7031 with the targets at 0.7184 – 0.7392.

AUDUSD, D1
On the daily chart, there is the formation of a Bear Marubozu candlestick analysis pattern, which emphasizes the strength of sellers, as well as the formation of a Three Black Crows figure under the resistance level of 0.7031, which also signals a continuation of the downtrend. Currently, the asset is most likely forming a Falling Three Methods pattern, which is a continuation of the trend and warns that quotes may continue to move down. More likely is a scenario with a downtrend to the level of 0.6846, the overcoming of which will allow sellers to strengthen the movement up to the level of 0.6401.

Support levels: 0.6846, 0.6680, 0.6401 | Resistance levels: 0.7031, 0.7184, 0.7392

 

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The USDJPY pair is trading around 137.15.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting as part of a global uptrend, the deceleration stage of which increasingly resembles a global Head and shoulders reversal pattern with a Neckline around 132.78. On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that the potential for the development of a downward movement, in this case, will be quite high but to confirm the implementation of the pattern, the quotes of the trading instrument need to reverse from the current prices and not overcome the annual high of 139.35.

Technical indicators keep a buy signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator is expanding upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator has formed the first rising bar after moving into the buy zone.​

 

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The XAGUSD pair continues its local corrective trend and is now around 18.94.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price of the precious metal is declining within the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries at 20 – 16. After reaching the resistance line at 20.9, the trading instrument reversed and formed another wave of decline. The target could be the global support level of 16.68. On the four-hour chart, the downside potential looks quite high, and if the quotes consolidate below the initial trend level of 61.8% on the Fibonacci extension, which coincides with the low of the year at 18.31, there will be no serious support for the price, and the position can be realized.

Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is expanding downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed the first downward bar after moving into the sell zone.​

 

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USDCAD - The pair is retreating from local highs​

Last Friday, renewed June data on retail sales in Canada was published, which provided little support to the national currency: the core index was 0.8% MoM against the forecast of 0.9%, but in annual terms, the indicator consolidated around 1.1% against the background of preliminary estimates of experts at 0.3%. Retail sales excluding cars for the same period adjusted from 1.9% to 0.8%. Another negative factor that influenced the dynamics of the trading instrument was the publication of the July index of prices for new housing in Canada, which rose by 0.1% but did not live up to the forecast of 0.3% and was worse than the previous value of 0.2%.

As for the US economy, the core retail sales index for July added 0.4%, exceeding the forecast of –0.1%. However, the volume of retail sales for July remained unchanged, showing a value of 0.0%, against the preliminary estimates of 0.1%. Next month, traders expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%, and the market is already pricing this scenario into the value of assets, primarily the US dollar. If the experts' expectations are justified, the US dollar will continue to strengthen, and, accordingly, the USD/CAD pair will rise with the target at the July high of 1.3218.

The long-term trend is upwards. The key support area formed in the price range 1.2780–1.2740, and the buyers held it. As a result, the upward dynamics will continue to 1.3157 and 1.3218. The mid-term trend changed to an uptrend last week. The trading instrument broke the target zone 1.2966–1.2945, and the next target is zone 2 (1.3192–1.3170). The key trend support is shifting to 1.2839–1.2818, and in case of correction of quotes to this area, it will be possible to open new long positions.

Resistance levels: 1.3065, 1.3157, 1.3218 | Support levels: 1.2935, 1.2780, 1.2740

 

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FTSE 100 - British business activity data disappointed investors​

The UK stock market this week will remain focused on today's publication of data on business activity in the leading sectors of the economy. As analysts expected, the slowdown in indicators continued, which in the long term is a negative signal. Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.0 points from 52.1 points, and Services PMI amounted to 52.5 points after 52.6 points recorded in the previous period.

In the corporate segment, the telecommunications company Vodafone Group Plc. sold its Hungarian division 4iG Public Limited. The amount of the deal is estimated at 1.78 billion dollars, and some experts consider it too low. In turn, the UK bond market continues its upward correction: the yield on 10-year government bonds amounted to 2.514%, while the rate on conservative 20-year bonds again reached its June peak at around 2.929%.

Quotes of the index continue to trade within the global side channel, approaching the upper limit. Technical indicators are holding a buy signal, which has recently begun to weaken: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations started to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.

Support levels: 7456, 7200 | Resistance levels: 7558, 7693​

 

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GBPUSD - the pound tries to recover from record lows​

The British pound is showing mixed dynamics, testing 1.1830 for a breakout. The day before, the GBPUSD pair showed a moderate corrective growth, which was partly caused by the depreciation of the US currency in almost the entire spectrum of the market.

Among other things, pressure on dollar quotes was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the US. Thus, the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global in August corrected from 52.2 points to 51.3 points, although analysts expected a decrease to only 52 points, and the Services PMI fell sharply from 47.3 points to 44.1 points, while it was expected that the indicator would rise to 49.2 points. However, it should be noted that the British statistics also turned out to be disappointing: the Services PMI in August corrected from 52.1 points to 46.0 points, while the forecast was at the level of 51.1 points.

Investors today are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the results of the symposium in Jackson Hole, which is to be addressed by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The official is expected to give clear signals on the pace of interest rate hikes in September and beyond, as well as comments on the prospects for a recession amid deteriorating energy markets.

Meanwhile, London Mayor Sadiq Khan said most people in the country will not be able to pay their heating bills and even afford food this winter amid record inflation, which has reached 10.1% in annual terms, the highest since 1982. According to Bloomberg analysts, electricity tariffs will reach 4K pounds per month by January next year. The UK Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) may set a price ceiling of around 4.266K pounds in the first months of next year, nearly 0.650K pounds more than the agency's previous forecast.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range expands from below, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from its lows, is trying to recover, indicating the corrective growth development in the near future.

Resistance levels: 1.1854, 1.1933, 1.2, 1.2054 | Support levels: 1.18, 1.1758, 1.17, 1.165​

 

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USDCHF - The US dollar develops an uptrend​

The US dollar is showing moderate growth, testing the level of 0.966 for a breakout. The day before, USDCHF has already made attempts to consolidate above this level, but by the end of the day session, the "bulls" have lost all their positions, and the dollar retreated to the opening levels.

The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics was the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US. In particular, market participants drew attention to the decline in business activity indices, as well as New Home Sales, which fell by 12.6% in July after falling by 7.1% a month earlier. In addition, investors are in no hurry to open new long positions ahead of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The official is expected to intensify "hawkish" rhetoric, but more moderate signals for further tightening of monetary policy are not ruled out.

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is also trying to consolidate above the zero level. Stochastic, having reached its peak values is reversing into a descending plane, signaling in favor of the development of a correctional decline in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.97, 0.9762, 0.9847, 0.99 | Support levels: 0.965, 0.9594, 0.952, 0.9469​

 

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EURUSD - The euro against the dollar fell to a record low in 20 years​

The EURUSD pair is actively declining, trading around 0.9957. This week, the instrument renewed its 20-year low, consolidating below 0.9950 on the back of continued growth in gas prices, recession risks in the EU, and negative macroeconomic statistics.

Thus, Services PMI in France fell to 51.0 points from 53.2 earlier, Services PMI in Germany fell to 48.2 points from 49.7 points earlier, and the aggregate value for all EU countries dropped to 50. 2 points from 51.2 a month earlier. Business activity in the French manufacturing sector fell to 49.0 points from 49.5 points earlier, in Germany – to 49.8 points, and in the EU – to 49.7 points, down 0.1 points.

By the end of yesterday, the situation changed, and the trading instrument stopped actively falling due to the decline in the US dollar, which began to sell off after the publication of disappointing data on new home sales in the US. Thus, in July, the indicator decreased to 511.0K from 585.0K in June, yielding the forecast of 575.0K. The total drop in sales was 12.6%, the lowest figure since February 2016. Seriously disappointed investors and business activity, which weakened to 44.1 points in the service sector and 51.3 points in the manufacturing sector.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars, falling in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.006, 1.0347 | Support levels: 0.9898, 0.9650​

 

[SOLIDECN]

XAUUSD - The price has stabilized but may resume a decline​

The US dollar strengthened against alternative assets, including gold, amid problems in the European and Chinese economies. A serious increase in inflation in the EU and the UK, as well as a decrease in the volume of energy supplies to the EU and a slowdown in production growth in China against the backdrop of the introduction of quarantine measures, have seriously increased the risks of a global economic downturn and strengthened the dollar as a shelter asset. The US economy has so far been coping with the pressure of rising prices and tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, supported by a strong labor market, although several other industries, such as the construction sector, have begun to slow down. Experts hope the country will avoid a recession, despite the continued increase in rates, making the US currency more attractive for investment.

At the moment, the trading instrument has stabilized, as investors are waiting for the most important event of the week – the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, at the symposium in Jackson Hole. He is expected to confirm the need for further interest rate adjustments until inflation slows to a 2.0% target and oppose a slowdown in monetary tightening, strengthening the US currency. The slightest fluctuations regarding the continuation of the “hawkish” rate of the regulator may have the opposite effect, in which case the XAUUSD pair will resume growth.

The trading instrument regained its lost position, having risen to 1750 (Murrey [4/8]), but for serious growth, it will need to consolidate above the middle line of Bollinger bands around 1769, and then the positive dynamics may continue to 1812.5 (Murrey [6/ 8]) and 1843.75 (Murrey [7/8]). If 1732 (lower line of Bollinger bands) is broken downwards, a new decrease to 1687.5 (Murrey [2/8]), 1656.25 (Murrey [1/8]) is possible.

Technical indicators do not give a single signal, illustrating the uncertainty of the market: Bollinger bands reverse horizontally, Stochastic is pointing upwards, and the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 1769, 1812.5, 1843.75 | Support levels: 1732, 1687.5, 1656.25​