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USDCAD - The instrument continues its downward correction​

Yesterday, traders only paid attention to the June data on wholesale sales, which increased by 0.5%, yielding analysts' forecasts of 2.0%. On Friday, Statistics Canada will publish May GDP data, which for the first time in the last nine months, may slow down to –0.2%. However, given the increase in April by 0.3%, there is no talk of a recession in the national economy since the quarterly value, in this case, will be adjusted to 0.1%.

On the weekly chart, the price is trading within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.26 – 1.32 and is falling towards the support line. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downwards bars, moving into the sell zone.

Support levels: 1.2816, 1.2644 | Resistance levels: 1.2936, 1.3052​

 

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XRPUSD - Murrey analysis​

The XRPUSD pair continues to trade within a long-term downtrend. However, in early June, the quotes formed a sideways range of 0.293–0.366, which they still cannot leave. Last week, the cryptocurrency again tested its upper limit but failed to break through higher and began to decline. At present, the price of the asset has consolidated below 0.3418, supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands, which gives the prospect of further decline to 0.2930. In case of a repeated breakout of 0.3418, the price will return to the area of 0.3662. In general, movement is predicted within the formed sideways range since there are no serious drivers for a trend change in the market.

Technical indicators show opposite signals, confirming the uncertainty of the market: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic reversed downwards, and the MACD histogram is near the zero line. Its volumes are insignificant.

Resistance levels: 0.3418, 0.366, 0.39 | Support levels: 0.3174, 0.293​

 

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Visa - Technical analysis​

The shares of Visa Inc., the largest American multinational company that provides payment services, are developing a corrective trend, and the instrument is trading around 209. On the daily chart, a global Diamond pattern with border levels of 187–230 is developing, and at the moment, the price is clamped inside its limits.

On a four-hour chart, a Volumetric candle candlestick analysis pattern appears with local resistance located around 216.60, from where buy positions may be formed, and a support level of 199.9, from which new sell positions may be opened. In case of orientation to the signals of the pattern, the readings of technical indicators do not need to be considered. Still, at the moment, they signal a possible continuation of growth: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, and on the AO oscillator, the histogram is in the buy zone.

 

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Johnson & Johnson​

On the daily chart, the price holds within the global ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 170–190 and, reversed at the support line, is trying to consolidate within the uptrend.

On a four-hour chart, it is seen that the channel support line coincides with the multi-year level of 170, which the quotes of the trading instrument have already tested more than ten times. It indicates the presence of large volumes in the area, which makes the probability of crossing the line extremely low. The key resistance for the upward momentum is the June local high of 182, towards which the price is moving.

Technical indicators signal in favor of a likely continuation of growth: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator began to approach the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is approaching the transition level, forming new rising bars.​

 

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EURUSD - The decision of the US Federal Reserve disappointed investors

This week, within the framework of an extraordinary meeting, the energy ministers of the EU countries reached a compromise on the issue of reducing the consumption of "blue fuel" by 15% from the average level over the past five years. The emergency plan, developed in the event of a complete cessation of energy supplies from Russia, assumes a decrease in the volume of gas used in the upcoming winter heating season, starting from August this year to the end of March 2023. The driver for the decision was the reduction in the volume of fuel transported through the Nord Stream gas pipeline to 1/5 of the throughput capacity due to technical work carried out on the gas turbine engine. The market took this as a signal of an escalation of political tension between Russia and the European Union. Nevertheless, despite the decrease in the volume of supplies, the filling of gas storage facilities continues and, according to experts, may reach 80% by November 1. As for the state of the economies of the EU countries, the situation continues to deteriorate, and, as shown by the German consumer climate index for August, the decline in the indicator increased to –30.6 points, which is the absolute minimum in the history of observations.

The trading instrument moves within the global downward channel, rising towards the resistance line. Technical indicators hold a sell signal, which is weakening: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator is approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram continues to form upward bars.

Support levels: 1.0112, 0.9952 | Resistance levels: 1.0259, 1.0494​

 

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USDJPY - The epidemiological situation in Japan is rapidly deteriorating​

According to the World Health Organization, Japan has come out on top in the world in terms of the daily increase in the incidence of coronavirus. More than 200.0K cases of infection were registered yesterday, which has already become the reason for limiting the work of several large industries. The country is fighting the seventh wave of the pandemic. The country's southernmost prefecture, Okinawa, has been hardest hit by the new outbreak, according to authorities, but Tokyo, Osaka, and Hokkaido prefectures in the far north are also on the rise. However, the government does not intend to introduce strict quarantine restrictions soon, citing low mortality and urging the population to get vaccinated. Macroeconomic indicators also show negative dynamics, with the leading indicators index down 1.7% after rising 2.1% in June, and foreign investment in Japanese stocks fell to 298.1B yen this week from 475.0B yen earlier.

The trading instrument is within the global uptrend, declining to the support line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal, which is actively weakening: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range narrows and the AO oscillator histogram forms new downward bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 134.74, 132.16 | Resistance levels: 136.86, 139.34​

 

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General Electric - Growth on the back of a strong quarterly report​

The company's financial report for the second quarter exceeded analysts' expectations, allowing the issuer's shares to consolidate in an uptrend. Thus, the total volume of orders amounted to 18.7B dollars, which is 2% higher than the same period a year earlier, and the volume of organic orders increased by 4.0%. Total GAAP revenue was recorded at 18.6B dollars, up 2% from last year. Adjusted revenue beat market estimates for the first time in the last six quarters, standing at 17.9B dollars versus 17.30B dollars expected. GAAP adjusted earnings per share were 0.78 dollars. In their full-year forecast for 2022, General Electric Co. expects earnings per share to remain at the lower end of the 2.8–3.5 dollars per share range.

The asset is being corrected within the global downward channel, moving away from the support line. The technical indicators reversed and gave a new buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, while the histogram of the AO oscillator has moved into the buy zone and is forming upward bars.

Support levels: 67.25, 60.1 | Resistance levels: 73.3, 85.2​

 

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NZDUSD, H4​

On the four-hour chart, at the support level of 0.6223, a Marubozu pattern is forming, signaling that the buyers have seized the initiative. The appearance of two Hammer patterns also confirms the strengthening of the "bullish" sentiment. In the current situation, the continuation of the upward trend towards the resistance level of 0.6371 is possible, consolidation of the price above which will allow the asset to recover lost positions and head to the area of 0.6541− 0.6711. If the "bears" break the support level of 0.6223, the negative dynamics will develop to 0.5920.

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NZDUSD, D1​

On the daily chart, there is a falling Wedge price pattern, from where the price of the trading instrument went upwards. Its development has not yet been completed, and the upward dynamics of quotations are intensifying. It is confirmed by forming a series of Hammer reversal patterns, signaling the bottom has been reached. Currently, the price is trying to break the resistance level of 0.6371. If successful, the quotes will continue to move to the area of 0.6541− 0.6711.

Support levels: 0.6223, 0.6106, 0.592 | Resistance levels: 0.6371, 0.6541, 0.6711

 

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The shares of Alcoa, an American steel company, are correcting around 50.​

On the daily chart of the asset, the price left the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries at 23 – 47, having broken the resistance line at 46 yesterday and consolidated in an uptrend. On a four-hour chart, it is seen that further global dynamics will most likely continue within an uptrend, and the May low at 53.7 is the key resistance, consolidation above which will allow the instrument to strengthen its positions.

Technical indicators reversed and gave a new buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator has moved into the buy zone, continuing to form rising bars.​

 

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GBPUSD - Trading within the global downward channel​

At the end of last week, almost 80% of all train traffic in the country came to a halt, paralyzing the domestic supply chains of goods due to the strike of railway workers, caused by a sharp increase in prices for food and goods, which has been going on since the beginning of summer. Also, the British pound is negatively affected by macroeconomic statistics: the volume of mortgage lending in June fell to 5.27B pounds from 8.04B in May, while the volume of private net loans fell to 7.1B from 8.9B a month earlier. The reason for the negative dynamics of the indicator was the active increase in the interest rate, which prevents consumers from planning the cost of loans.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a stable buy signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2268, 1.2652 | Support levels: 1.2063, 1.1757​

 

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NZDUSD - New Zealand housing market is stable​

Yesterday, Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) released its June report on the state of the housing market: building permits decreased by 3.0% from the May dynamics of –0.5%, and the adjusted value lost 2.3% compared to 0.5% recorded earlier. However, there is a positive trend: the actual number of houses built in June amounted to 50.736K, which is 14% more than last year, and the number of new houses per thousand residents is 9.9 units against 8.7 units. This statistic may indicate that the global construction market is stable, and the local slowdown does not seriously impact it.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, rising towards the local resistance. Technical indicators reversed and gave a signal to buy: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram moved into the buying zone, forming several upward bars.

Resistance levels: 0.6332, 0.6555 | Support levels: 0.6237, 0.6081​

 

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The shares of Caterpillar, a global manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, are trading within a global corrective trend, around 194.

On the daily chart of the asset, a global Expanding formation pattern with dynamic boundaries of 165–250 is forming, within which an upward wave with the target near the resistance line around 250 develops. A reversal has formed on the four-hour chart, and there is no doubt that the upward dynamics will continue. Since the current wave is the seventh, the probability of quotes going beyond the lower border of the pattern around 165 is extremely small.

It is confirmed by technical indicators that have reversed and are holding a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line and began to expand the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new bars in the buy zone.​

 

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USDCHF - American currency is actively losing ground​

The dynamics of the franc are rather negative since there are still no factors for its growth, and investors perceive the published macroeconomic statistics as neutral: the index of economic expectations published monthly by the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) reached –57.2 in July, which was better than the absolute June anti-record of –72.7 points but it is still lower than the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The Zurich Polytechnic Federal Institute (KOF) Switzerland's index of leading economic indicators has been declining for fifteen consecutive months, and in July, the indicator was 90.1 points, falling from 95.2 points in June. Given that it is a leading indicator of the gross domestic product (GDP) trend, it can be assumed that the growth of the Swiss economy will continue to slow down in the second quarter.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the possible Head and shoulders pattern, preparing to continue a local decline. Technical indicators have completely reversed and gave a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram moved into the sell zone, continuing to form down bars.

Resistance levels: 0.954, 0.97 | Support levels: 0.9462, 0.9304​

 

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Gold is correcting at 1774 amid strengthening of the downtrend of the US dollar, which fell from 108 to 105 in the USD Index, acting as a catalyst for the movement of capital into safe-haven assets.

Swap dealers have seen a record liquidation of short positions since the week before last, and the continuation of this trend may mean that the trend in gold is likely to change soon. The report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also showed a decrease of 5.153K contracts in this category, which significantly reduced the difference in the accumulated positions. Now buyers have 92.205K contracts, and sellers have 174.234K contracts.

The situation on the gold market is developing in such a way that the balance of sellers and buyers may soon change in favor of the latter. At the very least, the number of general speculative positions backed by money obviously slowed down the decline: if in early July they were adjusted by an average of 15 - 20K contracts per week, last week the reduction was only 2.3K contracts.

On the global chart of the asset, the formation of a wide descending channel with dynamic boundaries 1780 – 1650 continues, and now the price is making its first attempt to overcome the resistance line. Technical indicators weaken a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have almost approached the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 1753, 1696 | Resistance levels: 1787, 1847​

 

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Nasdaq 100 - Correction in the dollar is a catalyst for the growth of the stock market

As for the corporate segment, it is not planned to publish new financial reports of companies until Wednesday, but investors are assessing the impact of the fundamental background on the issuers' quotes. Thus, the shares of the aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co. showed rapid growth amid reports that the specialists of three factories for the production of military aircraft in Missouri decided to postpone their strike, as management presented new terms of the working contract. The growth is also shown in the stocks of the largest Chinese company operating in the field of Internet commerce, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., after the negative regarding the possible delisting of the company from the NYSE exchange was leveled.

The situation in the domestic bond market, where the downward correction continues, also contributes to the growth of stock indices. Thus, the yield rate on popular 10-year securities is 2.543% and today it is decreasing by 2.39%, and the yield on conservative 20-year bonds has dropped to 3.069%, having lost 1.55% since the beginning of trading.

The index quotes continue to form a global descending channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators are in the state of a buy signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator continue to stay above the signal line and expand the range of fluctuations, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is steadily increasing in the buy zone.

Support levels: 1268, 11810 | Resistance levels: 13090, 13880​

 

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ETHUSD - The decline may continue​

This week, the ETHUSD pair is correcting downwards, losing the positions won last week, against the background of a possible slowdown in the pace of monetary policy tightening in the USA and the expectation of an early transition of the Ethereum network to the PoS proof algorithm.

Experts note that there is "fatigue" in the market from the constant news about the approaching merger of the Ethereum 1.0 and Ethereum 2.0 networks. Most investors have already put money in the purchase of ETH and are now waiting for an immediate update, which is scheduled for mid-September. Up to this point, observers do not rule out the continuation of the pair's decline or its consolidation.

In addition, the overall pressure on the market is exerted by monetary factors. Despite the possibility of reducing the pace of interest rate hikes, which was mentioned last week by the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell, the regulator will not give up tightening monetary policy to combat inflation and will spend it for a considerable time, strengthening the position of the US currency in relation to competitors.

The price has corrected to the area of 1570, but for further serious decline it will need to consolidate below the strong support level of 1500 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibo retracement 23.6%). In this case, the reduction targets will be 1375 and 1250. The key for the "bulls" remains the level of 1750, the breakout of which will give the prospect of resuming growth to the levels of 1875 (, Fibo retracement 38.2%), 2000, and 2125.

Resistance levels: 1750, 1875, 2000, 2125 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250​

 

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The shares of PayPal Holdings, an American debit payment processor, correct at 88.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving above the resistance line of a wide downwards channel with dynamic boundaries of 50 – 80, holding at the local high of June 8 at 89. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the probability of the continuation of the upward dynamics is quite high. If the breakout of the local high occurs soon, the quotes will head towards the annual peak around 122.

Technical indicators confirm the high probability of growth, keeping a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator remain above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.​

 

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EURUSD - Statistics from the EU prevent further growth of the asset​

The German economy is rapidly plunging into a crisis, and the retail sales volume, which fell into negative territory in June, amounting to –1.6% instead of 1.2% in May, confirms this trend. The indicator has already lost 8.8% YoY, an absolute anti-record in the entire history of observations. Statistics for the euro area show a negative trend: July Manufacturing PMI amounted to 49.8 points, which is lower than 52.1 points in the last month, comparable to the lows of spring 2020.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, heading towards the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.0262, 1.041 | Support levels: 1.0115, 0.9951​

 

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Crude Oil - Investors pending OPEC+ decisions​

Today at 12:00 (GMT+2), the ministers of the OPEC+ member countries will gather for a meeting via videoconference. Investors are watching the upcoming meeting with interest for several reasons. First, a new secretary-general, Haytham Al Ghais will be introduced, succeeding Mohammad Barkindo. The second reason lies in the timing of the implementation of the OPEC+ agreement. The fact is that the participating countries plan to reach pre-crisis levels of oil production by September, and in order to meet this deadline, production levels gradually increased to 432 thousand barrels per day in June and up to 648 thousand barrels per day in July. However, OPEC+ is currently 2.84 million barrels per day behind schedule, according to the OPEC+ Technical Committee, which could force the organization to take more "hawkish" moves at today's meeting. Almost all parties to the deal are now at the limit of their production capacity, with only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates having spare capacity, which are likely to increase production levels further.

In this regard, there is no need to talk about a stable uptrend. In the event of a change in current plans, one should expect a continuation of a local decline in energy quotations, as world demand is not yet able to cope with such a high supply.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is kept within the local downward channel and may make a new attempt to overcome the support level in the near future.

Support levels: 91.68, 84.1 | Resistance levels: 97.57, 106.74​

 

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ASX 200 - RBA adjusted monetary policy parameters​

Earlier, the Australian regulator adjusted the interest rate by 50 basis points for the third time in a row, bringing it to 1.85%. Thus, the pace of monetary policy tightening has become the maximum since 1990 and, according to the head of the regulator, Philip Lowe, this is not the limit. The current increase is the bank's reaction to inflation, which, according to data for Q2, reached 6.1% in annual terms, having increased by 1.8% compared to Q1. According to Lowe, by the end of this year, we should prepare for the fact that consumer price growth will reach 8.0%.

The price left the limits of the local descending channel and consolidated above the resistance line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a signal for the start of purchases: the fast EMAs of the alligator indicator are significantly higher than the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars while in the buying zone.

Support levels: 6926, 6712 | Resistance levels: 7045, 7280​