Video | Market Technical | Solid ECN

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY - The medium-term trend reversed downwards​

The USDJPY pair moved to growth as a result of escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China against the background of the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan. Now the trading instrument is around 133.16.

Despite serious threats from the PRC, no one interfered with the landing of the official’s plane, but her arrival in the country caused sharp condemnation from the Chinese authorities, who announced the start of large-scale military exercises around the island in response. Pelosi visited Parliament and expressed hope for increased political and economic cooperation with Taipei. In turn, official Beijing reacted by imposing trade sanctions against Taiwan, which is especially dangerous given the current crisis: in particular, the import of citrus fruits and two types of fish products, as well as the supply of sand, will be stopped. In the face of political tension, investors traditionally avoid risky assets and prefer to buy the US dollar and gold.

The USDJPY pair rebounded from the key long-term uptrend support at 131.40, and the likely upward target is now the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (134.87) superimposed on July downside momentum. If it is held, the negative dynamics will continue in August, but in case of the breakout, buyers will target 137.18.

The medium-term trend reversed downwards last week, and as a result of the fall, the target zone 2 (131.33–130.95) was reached, from where an upward correction is now developing, the target of which is to test the key trend resistance 134.64–134.24, after which new short positions can be considered with the target at the low of the current week.

Resistance levels: 134.87, 137.18 | Support levels: 131.40, 126.49​

 

[SOLIDECN]

The shares of Tesla, an American electric car maker, are correcting around 921.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries 1050 – 560 and is trying to approach the resistance line. On the four-hour chart, the signal is being processed after overcoming the upper limit of the local Triangle pattern around 755. There may be obstacles in the way of further upward movement of quotes, and the first serious of them may be the local resistance level of 955, which the trading instrument can reach today.

Technical indicators signal continued growth
Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars with an uptrend in the buying zone.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD - Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to continue raising the rate

Yesterday, the analysts of the large bank UBS Group published a forecast regarding the prospects for the national currency for the autumn period, suggesting a decrease in quotations to 1.1500. Among the key reasons for the negative dynamics, experts cite high prices for electricity and energy resources amid the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine, as well as problems in supply chains. Macroeconomic statistics confirm the deterioration of indicators: according to data for July, Composite PMI fell to 52.1 points from 53.7 points in June, and Services PMI corrected to 52.6 points from 54.3 points a month earlier and this is the lowest value since March 2021.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, coming close to the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.2244, 1.2651 | Support levels: 1.2059, 1.1818​

 

[SOLIDECN]

XAGUSD - The price resumed growth after a two-month fall​

The Caixin July Services PMI in China edged up 1 point to 55.5 points, while the S&P Global July Composite PMI in the US came in above expectations at 47.5 points at 47.7 points, according to the latest data. The indicator in the US services sector in the United States also exceeded the forecast of 47.0 points and amounted to 47.3 points, while the volume of industrial orders for June increased by 2.0% MoM, which is higher than the analysts' forecast of 1.1%, and the previous indicator 1.8%. The economies of the two largest consumers of silver are showing optimistic data, which suggests an increase in demand for the precious metal, which is involved in various production chains.

However, the trading instrument is still in a long-term downtrend, and the level of 20.51, tested this week, is a strong resistance level: if market participants hold this level, then the decline is likely to continue with the target at 18.22, and if this level is broken, level up, the price will tend to test the trend line at 22.39.

Last week, the medium-term trend changed to an uptrend, and the quotes broke the target zone of 19.78–19.63. Now the growth target is zone 2 (21.28–21.13), and the key support is shifting to 19.00–18.85, upon reaching which investors will have the opportunity to consider new purchases of XAGUSD.

Resistance levels: 20.51, 22.39 | Support levels: 18.22, 17.10​

 

[SOLIDECN]

ADAUSD - The transfer of the Vasil fork is the reason for the downward correction​

Pressure on the ADA price, in addition to the long-term factor of the US Fed rate hike, is exerted by a new transfer of a key Cardano network update called Vasil. According to Charles Hoskinson, it should lead to a significant increase in network performance by launching the pipeline data processing function, expand the use of smart contracts and optimize processes for the needs of the growing volume of DeFi market applications. Initially, the fork was scheduled for June, then for the end of July and now for the middle of August. Kevin Hammond, a leading employee of Input Output Global (IOG), which is responsible for the modernization of Cardano, said that several more weeks of testing will be required to launch Vasil so that all network participants, including developers, cryptocurrency exchanges and ordinary users, can update it. Another postponement of an important update disappointed users, pushing prices down, but the pair as a whole retains long-term positive prospects. The imminent expansion of the Cardano blockchain continues to attract new projects. As Hoskinson recently noted, currently more than 100 of them are in a state of transition from the Ethereum blockchain to the Cardano network.
​

Currently, the price has approached the support zone of 0.495 - 0.4882, a breakdown of which will give the prospect of a decline to 0.4394 - 0.4170. The key level for the "bulls" remains 0.5371, the breakout of which may lead to an increase in prices to the area of 0.5859 - 0.61.

Resistance levels: 0.5371, 0.5859, 0.61 | Support levels: 0.4882, 0.4395, 0.417​

 

[SOLIDECN]

The shares of Starbucks, one of the largest companies in the world that owns the coffee chain of the same name, are trading around 87.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price has left the global downwards channel, breaking the resistance line at 76 and consolidating above the initial Fibonacci 23.6% correction at 81.6. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the quotes have reached another key level — the basic correction of 38.2% Fibonacci around 88.30, consolidation above which will be the main signal for the continuation of the upward trend and reaching full correction of 61.8% Fibonacci at 99.50.

Technical indicators have reversed and are holding a buy signal.
Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line and continue to move away from it, while the AO oscillator histogram is forming new rising bars in the buying zone.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

NZDUSD - New Zealand labor market statistics disappointed investors​

The dynamics were largely due to a disappointing report on the labor market in New Zealand: the Q2 unemployment rate rose to 3.3% from 3.2%, although analysts had expected a decline to 3.1%, and the percentage change in employment from the previous quarter did not happen at all with forecasts of growth of 0.4%. According to statistics, the share of the economically active population decreased to 70.80%, while preliminary estimates of the figure were 71.00%. To the labor market, the commodity price index has also shown negative dynamics for the fourth month in a row: the value lost 2.2% after falling by 0.4% a month earlier, and in such conditions, we cannot speak of stable growth of the NZDUSD pair.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, correcting towards the local resistance. Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6329, 0.6556 | Support levels: 0.6238, 0.6061​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Crude Oil - OPEC+ ignores US pressure​

Cartel Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said that the increase in production in September by 100 K barrels per day is not a mechanism for influencing oil quotations but acts as a check to ensure a complete balance of supply and demand. According to members of the organization, it is not the oil price that causes much greater concern but the low financing of the oil sector in the world, which this year has decreased from 600 B dollars to 450 B dollars. Thus, according to the results of the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia will increase production by 26.0K barrels per day, and the remaining 48.0K will fall on other members of OPEC+.

Demand for contracts by investors continues to decline gradually, reaching its lowest levels since 2016. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions amounted to only 253.8K compared to 259.3K a week earlier.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is moving within the local downward channel, heading towards the support line. Technical indicators keep a clear sell signal and completely exclude a reversal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars with a downward trend in the sell zone.
​

Resistance levels: 96.48, 105.23 | Support levels: 92.48, 85.60

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCHF - Technical analysis​

H4
On the four-hour chart, there is the formation of a Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern, which means a continuation of the downtrend and emphasizes the unstable position of the "bulls". At the moment, above the support level of 0.9396, a Bearish Engulfing Pattern has formed, which signals about increasing sales volumes. If the "bulls" fail to hold it, one should expect an increased downtrend up to the level of 0.9227. An alternative scenario is possible if buyers overcome the resistance level of 0.9496 with further recovery of positions in the zone of 0.9619–0.9728.

D1
The daily chart shows the formation of a Bear Flag price pattern, from which the price broke down. In addition, the negative trend is accompanied by the formation of a long red candle, the "bearish" Marubozu, which emphasizes the strength of sellers. In the current situation, the "bearish" trend is expected to continue and the price pattern to end at the level of 0.9227. The turning point for the "bulls" may be an impulse breakdown of the level of 0.9496.

Support levels: 0.9396, 0.9307, 0.9227 | Resistance levels: 0.9496, 0.9619, 0.9728

 

[SOLIDECN]

The shares of Apple, an American technology company, are in a corrective trend at around 172.

On the daily chart, the price is within the global Expanding formation pattern, completing another up wave and approaching the resistance line at 174. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the current wave is the fifth one and, therefore, the last of the obligatory ones, and within its framework, the upper border of the pattern may be broken, and the year’s high of 183 will be the local target for the upward movement.

The technical indicators confirm the high probability of continuation of positive dynamics: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars in the buying zone.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURJPY Technical Analysis

Despite the EURJPY pair’s trading within the bullish channel, the contradiction between the major indicators and the attempt to fluctuate below 136.60 level will postpone the bullish attack for now, to start suggesting the correctional negative trades that might target 135.50 and 134.40 levels. On the other hand, renewing the bullish attempts requires forming new bullish rally to manage to hold above 137.55 and open the way to target the positive stations near 138.60 and 139.70 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 136.80 and 135.50​

 

[SOLIDECN]

BTC USD - short-term price correction possible

The main driver of positive dynamics was the July data on US inflation: a slowdown in its growth to 8.5% made many investors hope that the peak of consumer price growth in the country has passed, and the indicator will now begin to move towards the target level of 2.0%, which may force the US Federal Reserve to abandon a sharp rate hike of 75 or 100 percentage points at the next meetings. It, in turn, became a catalyst for the active decline of the dollar against its main competitors. Also, the transition of the Ethereum network to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) proof algorithm, scheduled for mid-September, arouses the interest of traders in the entire cryptocurrency market and “digital gold” in particular.

The price has rolled back down and not consolidated above 25000. Judging by the reversal of Stochastic near the overbought zone, the decline may continue to the middle line of Bollinger bands around 23650, and in case the quotes consolidate below it and 23437.5, return to 21875. Otherwise, growth will resume towards 25000, 26562.5, and 28125.

Resistance levels: 25000, 26562.5, 28125 | Support levels: 23437.5, 21875, 20312​

 

[SOLIDECN]

NZDUSD - Inflation in New Zealand remains high

On Friday, Stats NZ published a report on food prices, which rose by 7.4% in July in annual terms. Among the key categories of price increases are: basic food products (+7.5%), restaurant meals (+6.6%), fruits and vegetables (+10.0%), meat and fish (+7.7%) and non-alcoholic drinks (+4.6%). On a monthly basis, the growth in food inflation amounted to 2.1%, and the fact that the negative dynamics is recorded taking into account lower energy prices indicates that the measures taken by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are not enough yet.

Quotes of NZDUSD continue to trade within the global downtrend, gradually approaching the resistance line.

Support levels: 0.6360, 0.6211 | Resistance levels: 0.6470, 0.6670​

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD - The UK economy is rapidly slowing down

The pound failed to continue active growth after the publication of poor macroeconomic data on Friday: the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) in July fell by 0.6% compared to the previous month, although in June, it showed a positive trend of 0.4%. The indicator declined by 0.1% in the second quarter, slowing down the value to 2.9% YoY from 8.7% a quarter earlier. Also to GDP, a significant weakening was recorded in the leading sectors of the economy: the volume of industrial production fell by 0.9%, and the volume of production in the manufacturing industry decreased by 1.6%. However, this is the first quarter when GDP is negative, which means formally a recession in the UK economy is not yet.

The pair continues to trade within the global downward channel, coming close to the resistance line, indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2240, 1.2630 | Support levels: 1.2048, 1.1761​

 

[SOLIDECN]

NZDUSD - Technical analysis

On the four-hour chart, at the resistance level of 0.6453, there is the formation of an Evening Doji Star reversal candlestick pattern, as well as a Three Black Crows pattern, which included a Bear Marubozu candlestick. The combination of these figures indicates pressure on the price from sellers and indicates a continuation of the downtrend with the target of 0.6279, overcoming which will allow the "bears" to continue moving to the area of 0.6107–0.5944. An alternative scenario can be realized if the quotes consolidate above 0.6453; then the asset will be able to restore its positions in the range of 0.6598–0.6748.

After the uptrend on the daily chart at the level of 0.6453, a Bearish Harami candlestick pattern appeared, which signals an imminent price reversal, and there is also a red long Engulfing reversal candle, warning the "bulls" of the upcoming trend change. In this situation, it is more likely that the quotes will fall to the support level of 0.6279, consolidation below which will allow the "bears" to head to the area of 0.5944.

Support levels: 0.6279, 0.6107, 0.5944 | Resistance levels: 0.6453, 0.6598, 0.6748

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY - Japan's economy grew in the second quarter

The yen continues to resist the recovery of the dollar, but at yesterday's trading retreated somewhat from its local highs after the publication of macroeconomic statistics. Japan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) added 0.5% in the second quarter, compared to a 0.6% growth forecast, and grew 2.2% year-on-year, also slower than the 2.5% expected by analysts. Nevertheless, experts assessed the released data positively, as the Japanese economy became one of the few that showed positive dynamics in the second quarter of 2022. The outlook for the future, however, is negative due to the new coronavirus outbreak and higher commodity prices. In addition to GDP, Consumer Spending also rose, adding 1.1% in the second quarter after rising 0.1% in the previous period. The main positive moment of the report was the data on the volume of Industrial Production, which grew by 9.2% in July, despite the fact that analysts expected a reduction of 7.5%.

USDJPY is trading within the global uptrend, being at the support line. Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal, which has recently intensified: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is still wide and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new descending bars, being in the sales area.

Support levels: 131.57, 126.8 | Resistance levels: 134.97, 138.95​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Crude Oil - Reports of a reduction in oil exports from the Russian Federation lead to lower prices

According to Bloomberg, in general, the volume of "black gold" transported by sea from Russia decreased to 3.24 million barrels per day from 3.32 million barrels per day, and exports to Asian countries decreased to 1.75 million barrels per day from 2.1 million barrels per day earlier. First of all, experts attribute the decline in imports to Asian countries' purchases of about 16.0 million barrels of cheaper American oil, which turned out to be much more profitable for them than the new proposal from Saudi Arabia, which significantly increased selling prices at the beginning of the month, adding a premium of 10.8 dollars per barrel.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price remains within the local descending channel, declining towards the support line. Technical indicators keep a clear sell signal, which excludes the possibility of a reversal of quotes: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, being in the sell zone, is forming new descending bars.

Support levels: 92.1, 85.6 | Resistance levels: 96.35, 105.23​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Nasdaq 100 - the US stock market recovers

Yesterday, the chief executive officer of investment fund Third Point LLC announced the buyout of a substantial stake in entertainment company The Walt Disney Co. and plans to discuss strategic changes with its management, as a result of which the papers of the corporation began to grow actively. Another leader in the information background is the manufacturer of electric vehicles Tesla Inc., whose head Elon Musk is preparing to appear in court and argue his refusal to purchase the social network Twitter Inc. Already, the businessman is trying to form a positive fundamental background around his company so that if a decision is made in favor of the plaintiff, he will be able to pay penalties. In particular, he said that Tesla Inc. has already produced more than 1.0M vehicles at the new plant in Shanghai, which was the reason for the growth of its stock quotations by more than 3.0%.

The trading instrument continues its positive dynamics, leaving the limits of the downwards channel. Technical indicators keep a buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving above the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram is steadily rising in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 13891, 15148 | Support levels: 13318, 12574​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY - Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, the quotes of USDJPY are moving in an uptrend channel. After a false breakout of its lower border at the level of 132.54, a Hammer reversal pattern is formed. Next, a Three Advancing White Soldiers pattern was formed, signaling the continuation of the uptrend; however, the emerging Long-Legged Doji pattern warns market participants about the existing uncertainty and signals a possible downward reversal. In this situation, a likely scenario may be a decrease in the quotes of the trading instrument to the support level of 132.54, consolidation of the price below which will allow the "bears" to go lower, to the area of 130.45–126.78. An alternative scenario can be realized if the price consolidates above the resistance level of 135.39. Then the quotes may recover to the range of 136.85 – 139.46.

D1
On the daily chart, at the resistance level of 135.39, there is the formation of a Tower Top candlestick analysis pattern, which is formed in the area of high prices and is a downward reversal pattern. At the moment, the price is moving in an uptrend; however, a possible scenario could be that it overcomes the lower border of the trend channel and consolidates below the level of 132.54, which will strengthen the downtrend to the area of 130.45 – 126.78.

Support levels: 132.54, 130.45, 126.78 | Resistance levels: 135.39, 136.85, 139.46

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD - Rising gas prices put pressure on the euro

Since the beginning of the week, the European currency continues its downtrend, under pressure from rising natural gas prices and weak macroeconomic statistics. Now the quotes of the EURUSD pair are in a corrective trend, trading around 1.0182.

Earlier, the governments of the eurozone countries adopted a resolution under which they will voluntarily reduce gas consumption by 15% until the end of March next year in order to reduce fuel shortages due to supply restrictions from Russia. Against the background of this decision, the prices for "blue fuel" are showing a sharp increase, at the moment reaching record March levels in the region of 2.6 thousand euros per 1.0 thousand cubic meters. In turn, macroeconomic statistics turned out to be quite weak: the August ZEW Survey on Current Situation in Germany fell to –47.6 points, and ZEW Economic Sentiment was –55.3 points, while the same indicator in the eurozone adjusted to –54.9 points from –51.1 points a month earlier.

The EURUSD pair is holding within the global downward channel, reversing to the downside again. Technical indicators, having reversed in the direction of growth, once again gave a signal to sell. The fast Alligator indicator EMAs crossed the signal line from above, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming descending bars approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 1.0111, 0.9951 | Resistance levels: 1.0260, 1.0406​