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[Solid ECN]

GBPUSD, the market is waiting for the decision of the Bank of England​

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The UK currency is in the stage of a local upward correction in anticipation of the decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate, which will be taken today at 14:00 (GMT+2). Now the GBPUSD pair is trading around 1.3156.

The vast majority of currency market analysts assume that the regulator will raise the interest rate for the third time by 25 basis points and bring it to 0.75% amid rising inflation and a negative situation on the national labor market. Official macroeconomic statistics showed the highest increase in consumer prices since 1992, which amounted to 5.5% for January compared to the same period in 2021. The volume of asset buybacks is projected at the same level of 875B pounds. According to analysts, today's possible increase in the rate is only one of the stages of a large-scale program, under which the rate could be increased to 1.50% by the end of 2022.

As for the US dollar, all the expectations of investors and analysts have completely justified: the US Federal Reserve raised the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, but this had almost no effect on the dollar quotes. Moreover, the US currency fell slightly and is now trading around 98.300 points in the index. In an accompanying statement, the regulator noted that due to the military conflict in Ukraine, inflation would be difficult to contain, and soon the figure may increase again. Despite this, the US financial authorities intend to continue to influence inflationary pressures by raising rates, which will eventually lead to achieving the target value of 2%.

Resistance levels: 1.3266, 1.36.
Support levels: 1.2997, 1.28.​

 

[Solid ECN]

Crude Oil, possible supply disruptions push the price up​

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During the Asian session, prices for WTI Crude Oil are growing moderately, developing the "bullish" momentum formed last Wednesday, when the instrument was trading near local lows since February 25. By the end of the week, "black gold" quotes are trying to consolidate above the psychological level of 100 dollars per barrel, reacting to the uncertainty about oil supplies from Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian troops continue to conduct a special operation on the territory of Ukraine, which has already met with sharp opposition from the Western world. Countries and private companies are refusing to buy Russian energy resources, and the current situation is destabilizing the balance of supply and demand in the market even more. According to the International Energy Agency forecast, in April, Russia may reduce production by 3M barrels per day to 8.6M barrels amid the refusal of buyers from exports amid economic restrictions imposed on the country. Currently, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the opportunity to increase production to compensate for supply problems.

Pressure on oil quotes in the middle of the week was exerted by a report published by the US Department of Energy on the dynamics of energy stocks for the week of March 11. Contrary to forecasts of a further moderate decline of 1.375M barrels, the figure rose by 4.345M. At the same time, gasoline inventories fell more than expected, while US oil production remained unchanged. The increase in the indicator is likely associated with the decision of President Joe Biden to release part of the strategic reserves of "black gold" to reduce prices, but US oil reserves are not unlimited. According to analysts, they can only last for one month.

Resistance levels: 105, 107.67, 110, 114.51.
Support levels: 103, 100, 96.00, 93.97.​

 

[Solid ECN]

Kiwi Approaches 200-day Average​

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The NZDUSD pair, also known as the Kiwi, was up for the third day, gaining 0.2% ahead of the US session and testing the major resistance zone near 0.6850. In the US, data showed that industrial production fell to 0.5% in February, down from 1.4% in January. At the same time, capacity utilization ticked higher from 77.3% to 77.6%, but below expectations of 77.8%.

Additionally, initial jobless claims improved from 229,000 to 214,000, setting the 4-week average at 223,000 from 231,750 previously. Continuing claims also fell to 1.419 million from 1.49 million a week ago.

As previously said, the Kiwi is trying to breach the powerful resistance at 0.6850. If bulls are successful, we can see a quick run toward the 200-day average (the green line) at 0.6915. On the downside, the support is seen at the 50-day moving average (the purple line) at around 0.6730, before another strong demand zone of previous lows near 0.67.

Yesterday's US rate hike failed to spur any demand for the greenback as investors continue to assess the situation in Ukraine as the primary driver of the financial markets.​

 

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD, the euro develops a corrective decline​

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The European currency shows a moderate decline against the US dollar during the Asian session, again testing 1.1000 for a breakdown. Demand for risky assets remains quite low at the beginning of this week, as the growing geopolitical tensions keep investors from opening new trading positions.

At the moment, Russian troops continue to conduct a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, which causes a reaction from Western states regarding new restrictions. This week the EU is preparing to consider the introduction of a new, fifth package of sanctions against the Russian economy. Today, a meeting of representatives of the EU secretaries of defense and foreign affairs will be held in Brussels, where the main topic of the agenda will be the situation in Ukraine. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell will present a report on possible scenarios for further developments in the situation.

Among other things, the new measures may include the introduction of a moratorium on the import of Russian oil and gas, similar to the one currently in force in the United States. However, the position of European states on this matter is still extremely ambiguous. Given high energy prices, the withdrawal of Russian resources could trigger further price pressures. In particular, Germany, which fears for its energy security, opposes the embargo.

The macroeconomic statistics from Germany published today did not have a noticeable impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Thus, the Producer Price Index in February slowed down growth from 2.2% to 1.4%, which turned out to be worse than the market's expectations of an increase of 1.7%. On an annualized basis, industrial inflation accelerated from 25% to 25.9%, only slightly falling short of the expected 26.1%.

Resistance levels: 1.1051, 1.11, 1.115, 1.1185.
Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0957, 1.09, 1.086.​

 

[Solid ECN]

WTI Crude Oil, pending EU decision on a Russian oil embargo​

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The price of North American WTI Crude Oil is correcting within an uptrend, trading around 112.56.

The geopolitical situation remains extremely tense, and new market drivers arrive almost daily. Thus, before the meeting of EU foreign ministers, which is scheduled to discuss the issue of a possible rejection of Russian oil, some officials have already called for a complete blockade. In particular, representatives of Lithuania and Ireland supported this option. However, experts agree that it is impossible to completely block the import of "black gold" since the EU countries consume up to 30% of Russian oil and up to 80% of diesel fuel. The aggressive rhetoric of the authorities was a response to the decision of the Russian president to conduct a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. Since it has not yet been possible to reach a consensus on resolving the conflict, the European authorities are already preparing the fifth sanctions project for an extraordinary summit of EU leaders, scheduled for March 24. US President Joe Biden is also expected to attend the meeting in Brussels. Seeing how the EU countries have already adopted several self-critical sanctions, investors are afraid of unexpected decisions, and oil contracts are actively rising in price.

Additional support for the quotes of the asset was provided by reports from Saudi Arabia, where another attempt was made to attack the Houthi rebels on the oil infrastructure of Saudi Aramco. Although the damage from the attack was small, the cases that have become more frequent recently pose a real threat to the infrastructure.

Resistance levels: 114.80, 123.50.
Support levels: 107.70, 93.60.​

 

[Solid ECN]

Silver Floats Near 25 USD

The metal traded half a percent higher on Monday and was spotted slightly above the 25 USD during the London session. It looks like the major demand zone near previous highs at 24.70 USD has been defended (so far), and silver has managed a slight bounce off that level. So as long as silver trades above it, the medium-term outlook seems bullish. Moreover, the 50-day moving average rose above the 200-day average, known as the golden cross, possibly providing further support for the following days. At that level, near 24 USD, another critical support is located.

Alternatively, the resistance could be found near 25.35 USD, and if silver jumps beyond it, we might see another leg higher toward the current cycle highs near 26.50 USD. Volatility will surely stay elevated, and investors will assess incoming news from Ukraine, where according to the latest Russian statement, Ukraine is holding down the diplomatic talks.

Finally, the Fed will continue hiking rates, the USD remains bid and US yields pushed to new cycle highs today, likely slowing the silver's uptrend.​

 

[Solid ECN]

GBPUSD, the pound is updating local highs

The British pound is trading with the uptrend against the US currency during the morning session, updating local highs from March 4.

Eurozone countries found themselves in a vulnerable position due to the developing crisis around Ukraine. The European authorities are preparing a new package of sanctions against the Russian economy, which may include significant restrictions or even a complete embargo on energy imports. This will lead to explosive inflation in commodity markets and call into question the ability to ensure energy security. Undoubtedly, high oil and gas prices will have an extremely negative impact on the UK economy, but London today is much less dependent on imports from the Russian Federation, and therefore joined the embargo initiated by the United States earlier.

Resistance levels: 1.33, 1.335, 1.3435, 1.35.
Support levels: 1.325, 1.32, 1.31, 1.305.​

 

[Solid ECN]

Gold, a backlash against the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Fed​

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The official said that the regulator is ready to raise the rate immediately by 50 basis points at one or more of the next meetings and will soon launch a program to reduce the balance sheet, according to the latest estimates, reaching 9T dollars. Also, The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts forecast two adjustments of 50 basis points at once from the next meeting and then four increases of 25 basis points before the end of the year. The "hawkish" tone of Powell's remarks spurred US bonds higher and affected the bond market, with the US dollar index turning sideways around 98.500 amid heightened investor attention to risky assets and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 2.81%. Against this background, gold has expectedly declined, although the demand for shelter assets has generally remained very high in recent days.

The metal is supported by the expectations of new packages of EU sanctions against the Russian economy. This week, EU leaders will meet to discuss the fifth package of restrictive measures that could include a broader ban on Russian energy imports. It is worth noting that there is no single position on this issue: Germany opposes a complete ban while not excluding the possibility of finding alternatives.

Resistance levels: 1930, 1952.5, 1974.2, 2000.
Support levels: 1900, 1877.6, 1860, 1840.​

 

[Solid ECN]

Brent Crude Oil, "black gold" returned to growth

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Brent Crude Oil quotes continue to recover after a significant correction last week and are currently in the 116.70 area.

Fears that China will seriously reduce energy consumption due to a new outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic have not yet been justified, and peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have stalled, which again brought price support factors back to the fore. The possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil supplies and the lack of progress on the "nuclear deal" with Iran, which the market has been waiting for several weeks, is acting as a catalyst for the demand that is currently impossible to cover since the largest producers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are not able to quickly increase production. Also, the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia is periodically attacked by the Yemeni Houthis, which creates problems for the export of "black gold" to the market.

Among the short-term factors for the growth of the trading instrument, the American Petroleum Institute (API) report published yesterday recorded a reduction in US inventories by 4.280M barrels at once instead of the expected growth by 0.025M barrels and a reduction in oil exports via the Caspian pipeline by 1.0M barrels per days due to damage requiring repair. The likely refusal of the EU countries to impose an embargo on supplies from Russia cannot seriously slow down the growth of quotations. It is already being taken into account by the market, as the leader of the European economy, Germany, opposes such measures.

Resistance levels: 117, 125, 132.
Support levels: 110.7, 100, 92.8.

 

[Solid ECN]

USDCHF, trading within the global ascending channel

The Swiss currency is slowly losing its strong position against the US dollar, trading around 0.9344.

Yesterday, the President of the country, Ignazio Cassis, addressed the nation with the rationale for the country's refusal of a neutral position and the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation against the backdrop of a special military operation in Ukraine. According to Cassis, this decision could have negative consequences for the economy, including higher utility prices due to high dependence on Russian gas and oil, accelerated inflation due to disruptions in supply chains, and retaliatory sanctions from the Russian Federation. Finally, the franc will remain a shelter asset, which will harm exports.


On the global chart of the asset, the price is moving within the global ascending channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram trades in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.937, 0.95.
Support levels: 0.9302, 0.9151.​

 

[Solid ECN]

Silver, the price is consolidating near 25​

Silver prices show a moderate decline during the Asian session, correcting after a fairly strong increase the day before on the back of lower yields and risk aversion in financial markets. However, the USD Index is rising for the second day in a row, renewing an intraday high around 98.800, adding 0.14%. XAG/USD is again testing 25 for a breakdown; however, there are not so many drivers for the development of the "bearish" trend.

The "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve had only a brief downward effect on safe-haven assets, after which the demand for silver, gold and a number of other trading instruments began to recover again. Traders are concerned about the uncertainty posed by the conflict in Eastern Europe ahead of US President Biden's meeting with his North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies in Brussels. The special military operation carried out by Russian troops in Ukraine has been going on for a month already, while it is still premature to talk about the prospects for its completion. The peace talks, which continue to this day, have not led to any clear results due to the cardinal contradictions in the positions of the parties.

At the end of the week, investors expect an emergency EU summit to consider new sanctions against the Russian economy. The focus will be on the issue of a possible embargo on energy supplies from the Russian Federation to the EU countries. In addition, according to US Senator John Cornyn, he met with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to discuss sanctions on Russian gold.

Resistance levels: 25.35, 25.58, 26, 26.27.
Support levels: 25, 24.67, 24.42, 24.​

 

[Solid ECN]

DAX30, Germany's energy sector faces new challenges​

The key news for the market is the statement of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, who instructed to convert all payments for natural gas supplies into rubles as soon as possible, and for the first time, the new technology will be tested in Europe. It will create some difficulties for buyers. According to German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, although the country considers such a decision to be a violation of contractual obligations, it is still impossible to refuse gas supplies from Russia. Later, the head of the Bundestag Committee on Economics and Energy, Klaus Ernst, noted that it is technically possible for Germany to pay for fuel in Russian rubles but this forces energy consumers to bypass their own sanctions restrictions, which is not entirely logical.

On the global chart, the price moves within the correction to the previous decline. Technical indicators keep a sell signal, which has almost been cancelled: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range narrowed almost completely, and the histogram of the AO oscillator reached the transition level.

Resistance levels: 14555, 15350.
Support levels: 14000, 12600.​

 

[Solid ECN]

AUDUSD, the uptrend is possible​

AUDUSD continues to grow for the second month in a row and has tested 0.75 this week. The positions of the trading instrument are supported by actively growing prices for raw materials exported from Australia, as well as the expectation of an early increase in rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Australia's February Unemployment Rate was released last week. The indicator fell from 4.2% to 4.0% and reached the target level provided by the Australian regulator to start tightening monetary policy. The only limiting factor for the RBA now remains the uncertainty associated with the crisis in Eastern Europe. Today's preliminary March data on business activity in the country turned out to be positive. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI increased from 57.0 to 57.3 points, and the Services PMI increased from 57.4 to 57.9 points. Experts, however, fear that business activity will begin to decline in the near future, as it will be negatively affected by rising energy prices and the results of the recent flooding in Australia.

The positions of the US dollar look less stable, as investors are concerned about the too weak rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, which is unlikely to contain inflation. Probably, the officials of the regulator understand this as well, since during the week many of them advocated a 0.50% rate correction in the future. This prospect is admitted by the President of San Francisco Fed, Mary Daly, the President of St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, and the Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester; however, the decision to accelerate the rate of increase may not be made by the regulator until May.

Resistance levels: 0.7507, 0.757, 0.789.
Support levels: 0.7415, 0.7325.​

 

[Solid ECN]

EURUSD, euro recovers at the end of the week​

The European currency shows moderate growth against the US dollar during the Asian session, recovering from the predominantly "bearish" trading dynamics of recent days. EURUSD is trading slightly above the average Monday levels and is preparing to end the week with almost zero results.

The focus of the market is on the EU summit in Brussels, which is expected to continue the discussion of new packages of sanctions against the Russian economy today. In addition, the details of the implementation of the EU plan to phase out energy from the Russian Federation may be considered. The day before the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU is preparing such a plan with a possible date of 2027. The EU is also considering the possibility of centralized purchases of gas and other resources, which, according to von der Leyen, should have a positive impact on price stability.

Moderate support for the euro is provided by yesterday's optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Markit Manufacturing PMI in Germany in March declined from 58.4 to 57.6 points, which was better than market forecasts at the level of 55.8 points. The services sector also contracted less than expected: from 55.8 to 55 points, while the forecast was for a fall to 53.8 points. Markit PMI Composite in the euro area fell from 55.5 to 54.5 points, ahead of analysts' expectations at the level of 53.9 points.

Resistance levels: 1.1051, 1.11, 1.115, 1.1185.
Support levels: 1.1, 1.0957, 1.09, 1.086.​

 

[Solid ECN]

AUDUSD, Australian dollar renews highs since November 2021​

The Australian dollar continues to develop a confident uptrend paired with the US currency during trading in Asia, preparing to end the week with a noticeable increase. AUDUSD is trading near 0.752 and is updating local highs of November 2021.

The instrument is supported at the end of the week by the growth of corrective sentiment in favor of risky assets. The euro and the pound are strengthening in parallel against the US dollar, the decline of which was facilitated by the publication of weak data on the dynamics of Durable Goods Orders in the US the day before. In February, the indicator fell sharply by 2.2% after rising 1.6% a month earlier. Analysts had expected negative dynamics, but they hoped for a decline only by 0.5%. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense fell 0.3% in February after rising 1.3% in January.

Statistics from Australia, published yesterday, also turned out to be worse than market expectations. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI rose from 57.4 to 57.9 points in March, while market forecasts suggested a sharp increase in the indicator to 62.7 points. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI over the same period strengthened from 57 to 57.3 points, with forecasts for growth to 59 points.
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Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range expands, freeing a path to new record highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its highs has been in the horizontal plane for a long time, indicating the risks of the Australian dollar being overbought in the ultra-short term.​

Resistance levels: 0.755, 0.76, 0.765, 0.77.
Support levels: 0.75, 0.744, 0.7366, 0.73.​

 

[Solid ECN]

GBPJPY Defends 6-year Highs​

Despite the sharp rally off its March lows, the GBPJPY cross remained bid and traded half a percent higher today, rising to 160.5.

The whole rally has been fueled by the strength in the USDJPY pair, which surged amid rising yields. However, although the GBPUSD pair has managed to defend the 1.30 support, its share on the GBPJPY vertical movement has been minimal so far.

Yesterday's inflation numbers for February brought another upside surprise as the headline CPI number rose more than expected, printing 6.2% yearly, up from 5.5% previously (and 5.9% forecast), marking the highest inflation reading since March 1992, when inflation was 7.1%. In addition, the core CPI also accelerated faster than thought, rising to 5.2% from 4.4% in January.

Today's data showed that the UK manufacturing PMI declined more than expected in March, dropping to 55.5 from 58 in February. On the other hand, the services sector improved slightly to 61 from 60.5 previously.

Technically speaking, as long as the GBPJPY cross trades above previous highs of 158, the medium and long-term outlooks seem bullish. However, the short-term time frame seems heavily overbought, likely leading to a correction in the following days.

The next resistance will be at yesterday's highs of 161.10; when cleared, we might see another leg higher toward 162.​

 

[Solid ECN]

GBPUSD, the pound is under pressure from weak statistics​

This week, the GBP/USD pair had ambiguous dynamics. At first, the price rose to the area of 1.3297, but then returned to the level of 1.3160 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands).

Today, the pound was again under pressure amid the release of weak British statistics on retail sales and consumer confidence. In February, the volume of retail sales in the UK decreased by 0.3% on a monthly basis, instead of the expected growth of 0.6%. Year-on-year growth slowed from 9.4% to 7.0%. The March consumer confidence index from GfK declined more than the market expected and amounted to -31 points. In general, experts fear that in the future the situation will continue to deteriorate due to the Ukrainian crisis, which caused the sanctions war and created additional inflationary pressure in the economy. All this will lead to a further increase in the cost of living and may significantly reduce household demand, which in turn will hit economic growth. A negative factor for investors is the insufficient support of British citizens by the authorities. So, on the eve of Chancellor Rishi Sunak presented a new state budget, which plans to reduce fuel duties and payroll taxes. Analysts believe that this is too little to support the pre-crisis level of consumption, since only one in eight workers will feel a real tax cut.

The positions of the USD also do not look stable. Investors are waiting for further drastic steps by the US Fed to curb the growth of inflation, which remains the main economic problem in the country. The main sectors of the US economy continue to show growth so far. In particular, according to the latest data, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 215K to 187K, and the total number of citizens receiving benefits decreased from 1,417M to 1,350M. This suggests the possibility of further rate increases, which should support the US currency.

Support and resistance
The 1.3160 mark remains key for the "bears". Consolidating below it will give the prospect of a decline to 1.3060 and 1.2940. A breakout of the level of 1.3305 will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 1.3427 and 1.3500.
Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic are directed downwards, the MACD histogram decreases in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 1.3305, 1.3427, 1.3500.
Support levels: 1.3160,1.3060, 1.2940.​

 

[Solid ECN]

USDCAD, Canadian dollar takes the lead in the pair again​

Against the background of the growth of the Canadian currency quotes, the USD/CAD pair is moving in a local downtrend, trading around 1.2531.

Important macroeconomic statistics were not published this week, and investors turned their attention to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), according to which the average cost of housing in the country in February amounted to 648.2K Canadian dollars, which is 20% more than last year and is the record high in history. According to experts, the increase in prices provoked an unprecedented demand for housing, which will be fully reflected in the March report and can provide serious support to the national currency.

The USD Index is moving in a stable sideways range, dropping slightly yesterday to 98.400. Positive Initial Jobless Claims data which fell to 187K from 215K a week earlier, were offset by a poor report on durable goods orders. The indicator fell by 2.2% for February after rising by 1.6% for January, while the orders index decreased by 0.6% after rising by 0.8% a month earlier.

The price is moving within a narrowing ascending channel on the global chart. The technical indicators reversed and gave a strengthening sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range is actively expanding, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming down bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2561, 1.2762.
Support levels: 1.2475, 1.2306.​

 

[Solid ECN]

USDJPY, US dollar hits highs of the end of 2015​

The US dollar continues its strong growth in the USDJPY pair during Asian trading, renewing all-time highs since December 2015 and testing 123 for a breakout. The "bulls" are further supported by a wave of risk aversion that is boosting demand for safe-haven currencies, as well as strong US Treasury yields, which hit a new two-year high of 2.5%, up more than 1 percentage point since early December.

In addition, the exchange rate of the trading instrument is strengthening against the backdrop of the aggressive rhetoric of the US Fed, aimed at combating a record inflation for 40 years, which reached 7.9% in annual terms in February. The regulator launched a cycle of the interest rate hike this month, and in May it may decide to adjust it immediately by 50 or even 75 basis points. It is also expected that in the near future the Fed will begin to reduce its own balance sheet, which, according to the latest estimates, reaches 9 trillion dollars.

The yen gained momentum after the Bank of Japan announced its readiness to purchase an unlimited number of 10-year bonds at 0.25%. The regulator continues to go against the main trend in terms of tightening monetary policy. Due to low inflation, the country's financial authorities have kept the short-term interest rate on commercial bank deposits at -0.1% per annum, and the target yield on ten-year government bonds is near zero. Macroeconomic statistics released last Friday in Japan pointed to the acceleration of inflation in the Tokyo region in March from 1.0% to 1.3%, while the forecast was 1.5%. According to the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the growth rate of consumer prices may reach 2% in April or later, but this will not be the basis for an immediate reaction from officials.

Resistance levels: 123.5, 124, 124.5, 125.
Support levels: 122.42, 122, 121.4, 120.5.

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[Solid ECN]

EURUSD, EU intends to reduce dependence on Russian gas​

The key event of the past week was the statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that payment for natural gas supplies to "unfriendly" countries should now be made in rubles. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, noted that official Moscow's violation of contractual obligations is an attempt to circumvent Western economic sanctions imposed on the country after the start of a special military operation in Ukraine. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell stressed that European states would be able to refuse Russian gas supplies within two years since work has already begun to diversify sources and reduce dependence on energy raw materials from Russia. Also, at a press conference at the Doha Forum, the official noted that an agreement on a "nuclear deal" with Iran could be signed in the coming days. It will bring additional volumes of energy resources to the market. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany could stop importing coal and oil from Russia as early this year, noting that EU countries are still too dependent on imports. As for macroeconomic data, the business climate index in Germany continued to decline and dropped to 90.8 points in March from 98.5 points shown a month earlier. The index of business expectations corrected to 85.1 points from 98.4 points.

Against the backdrop of an impending new wave of crisis in the EU, the US dollar looks pretty stable, despite not very positive statistics. Thus, in February, the index of pending sales in the real estate market amounted to –4.1%, which was worse than the 1.0% growth predicted by analysts. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index stood at 59.4 in March, down from 62.8 in February.

The asset moves within a wide downward channel, declining towards the support line. Technical indicators hold a strong global sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, while the AO oscillator histogram remains deep in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1071, 1.1341.
Support levels: 1.0894, 1.0680.​